10.6 EDSEL

[nanningbob]

First I am having a lot of trouble with the internet here in China. I have periods of hours I cant get on and other times I keep getting knocked off. So my comments maybe spotty.

This week, breakouts have happened and volatility seems to be the norm. Not a market for the faint-hearted. You can make a lot or lose quickly. Hopefully the CSS will guide us through.

aud, nzd angling down sharply. Look to sell those two. aud is already south of the 0 line and the nzd just crossed it.

Lets look at my pics from last week. I said look to sell aud and nzd.
aud/cad... cad was below the aud on CSS it did not fit the bill.
aud/jpy had two DT moves during the week.
aud/chf did not fit 4H trade criteria for a sell very well but did have one move in the middle of the week. Probably the STO 7 Got you in early
aud/nzd did not trade.
aud/usd small trades at best.
eur/aud and gbp/aud again showed reversal movement going into range areas.
Conclusion price did not move strongly but wandered back into range areas. CSS shows aud flat for the week.

AUD did not move strongly during the week and so minimum profits were to be had.

NZD pairs were the stars of the week. Every NZD pair had a major move during the seek. gbp/nzd, nzd/jpy, nzd/chf, and nzd/usd all had major moves and gave out some nice pips during the week.

The usd is also angling down but like the gbp which is angling up they are ranging. I see a better chance of gbp going up than I see the usd continuing going down. More likely a mixed bag of some going up and some going down. So pick and choose from these.

GBP was a mixed bag like I expected, some going up and some going down. GBP/nzd was a big winner, gbp/usd also early in the week. gbp/jpy had a strong drop which the CSS said could happen with the JPY in the #1 position on the CSS by the middle of the week going up. I didnt play it so missed out.

USD was also a mixed bag nzd/usd, and usd/jpy strong down, usd/chf, usd/eur strong up. usd/cad and aud/usd were kind of flat.

Eur and chf are both angling up and look to buy these.

Buys were small and not worth trading by the end of the week the euro started to dive.

Jpy is up and on top. This could continue for at least another week or so. Look for buys.
Cad is in another world all by itself. I still dont have a read on it. It could continue to sink or it could have hit bottom and start coming back up. I have no idea.

JPY moved strongly against all currencies so buy JPY was a good choice this past week.
CAD finally found bottom so there were some winning trades but no big moves until Friday.

Eur and chf buys against aud, nzd look like the best deals of the week.
JPY buys against aud, nzd look real good too.

gbp may go up then you group them with the eur and chf buys

USD may go down then you group them against the euro currencies as a sell.

Jpy probably will continue to strengthen so buy it against usd and Asian currencies.

Cad ....................... not touching it. sell most likely.

Comments and results above. Not perfect but there is some accuracy there.

[Adam63]

Hi all,

Another one here trying to make my way with this method...

I'd like to ask others views on when they move their stops up to breakeven. I try to stick to the adage of "not letting a winner turn into a loser" and move my stop to b/e when the trade reaches around +50 pips, but a high proportion of my trades then retrace, stop me out before moving back in the original direction. For instance yesterday I was long GBP/AUD & EUR/AUD and short AUD/USD, all of which moved into positive territory by 50-80 pips before retracing, hitting my b/e stop, then continuing in the original direction. They're all looking good now but I didn't make a cent.

Do others find this an issue? Maybe it's a case of having to trust the trend and not moving the stop to b/e too soon, even if it means +70 pips becoming -80 before (hopefully) turning positive again.
Interested to hear how others go about it.

Thanks in advance.

I read this from NanningBob
focus on singles not homeruns, 70 pips on a trade is AWESOME... take it, and if the trade resets even better as then you can enter it again.
What I do is after 30 pips, I move to BE+5...( there is no point in getting nothing for all your work, right?)
and then I trail my trade starting at 40 pips...
everytime I get stopped out, if the trend is the same, then put a buystop at the next xxx.50 or xxx.00 and on you go again.

hope it helps.

Thanks for your input, lonely. I think you're right, I need to focus more on taking what's on the table rather than waiting for further moves. I struggle a bit with closing trades quickly vs. letting winners run, but that seems to be the way to go unless there's evidence of a very strong move.
Your method of re-entering at round numbers is well worth thinking about, but I worry about getting in on a move too late.
Thanks again for your response.

[Adam63]

Hi all,

Another one here trying to make my way with this method...

I'd like to ask others views on when they move their stops up to breakeven. I try to stick to the adage of "not letting a winner turn into a loser" and move my stop to b/e when the trade reaches around +50 pips, but a high proportion of my trades then retrace, stop me out before moving back in the original direction. For instance yesterday I was long GBP/AUD & EUR/AUD and short AUD/USD, all of which moved into positive territory by 50-80 pips before retracing, hitting my b/e stop, then continuing in the original direction. They're all looking good now but I didn't make a cent.

Do others find this an issue? Maybe it's a case of having to trust the trend and not moving the stop to b/e too soon, even if it means +70 pips becoming -80 before (hopefully) turning positive again.
Interested to hear how others go about it.

Thanks in advance.

This is an easy one for me to answer. It goes in the bank. I found out it is easier to get to 100 pips by banking 3--33pip or 4--25pip winners than it is to try to hang onto a trade until it makes a 100 pips. That is what I mean by being a singles hitter.

Thanks Bob, I think I needed to be reminded of that. Not so much "let your winners run" in this game, unless there's a really strong reason to think a move will continue.

[art]

hi guys this is off topic, but i have internet problems, i'm with talk talk in uk, given up on technical support, i'm getting this error, cannot communicate with primary DNS server ( 192.168.1.1) we have 3 comps in the house all same problem,router is ok,talk talk say everything is ok there end, any of you tech savvy guys can help cheers, sending this from my phone

[milanese]

hi guys this is off topic, but i have internet problems, i'm with talk talk in uk, given up on technical support, i'm getting this error, cannot communicate with primary DNS server ( 192.168.1.1) we have 3 comps in the house all same problem,router is ok,talk talk say everything is ok there end, any of you tech savvy guys can help cheers, sending this from my phone

maybe you will find one of this solutions helpfull..
http://answers.microsoft.com/en-us/wind ... a5ca413749

Cheers
Tommaso

[nanningbob]

Right now I dont use the 4H CSS. By itself it leads to false signals but I am seeing a value in getting out of trades when it cuts back but that is all. The problem I have with adding another indi is the overall confusion it causes as we add information. Basically the STO7 is the 4H filter waiting for it to go in the direction with the daily CSS. Which is what happened with the eur/nzd and gbp/nzd. Both of them moved almost 200 pips with confirmation of daily CSS with STO 7. If you were relying on the 4H CSS you probably would not have taken either one.

I want to change my answer. Baluda has been very kind to me and has reworked CSS several times for me so I can work on some theories. Sometimes I think he has to feel Oh no not again. However, I think I have come up with a way to read both the Daily CSS and 4H CSS on one page on each individual chart. In other words no matter what pairs you are trading you can see the CSS on the chart. Once this setup is on I think, I hope anyway, you can read this chart and know with some certainty to ride the trade and get the maximum pips from a move. In other words it will predict a possible good trade setup is coming, look to get in, and then ride the trade if it lasts or get out because it isnt or take your profit now it is a short run. I wish I wasnt leaving but if Baluda (the magician) can do this one (and there maybe some tough coding to get it to work) can get it to work, you will be given an advance notice that a possible trade is coming up. Then as the trade happens it will let you know whether to ride it or drop it. I couldnt even sleep last night when I sent copies to both Baluda and Steve, I was so excited. Finally something that gives you a chance to know to stay with a trade and take a lot of the guess work out. Those that have been suggesting of putting the 4H and Daily reads together have had a good idea. Getting them onto one chart to make an easy read was a problem I though I couldnt solve. The solution was simple, the coding maybe a night mare. Anyway here it the idea so you know where I am going with it. I leave in the morning so I probably wont see his answer until I touch down in San Fran.

[art]

thanks tomasso will check it out

[nanningbob]

You will also know that the gbp is 2nd on the daily list but it went below the 0 line on the 4H. You would then know not to try any buys on the gbp until it moved back up above the 0 line again. If you check the gbp charts when the gbp went below 0 on the 4H CSS but was still 2nd on the daily CSS, you can check the charts but it either range traded or dropped on all its crosses thus making buy trades futile. We would also know that if the gbp holds onto 2nd place on the daily CSS and the 4H CSS it rises above the 0 line we then would know to look for buy trades with the gbp except for the jpy trades. You would also know your gbp sell trades would be in trouble and you could get out early before damage is done.

However, if the gbp/jpy trade pictured above continued as jpy #1 daily and gbp 4H continued to go down you would know to stay in the trade (maybe take half profit) and let the winner run. If the gbp line starts moving up and the jpy begins moving down the we will know to close out our profits this deal is done. Imagine an ability to read "let your winners run" or "run over take your profit. That is what we are working on. So 100 million thanks to Baluda. , , I hope he can solve the coding problems.

[padnoter]

Hi Bob,

That sounds great.. I'm glad you are looking at both H4 & D1 css - your analysis makes a lot of sense & helps me. I can see my mistake on my gbpcad long on Friday pm now!! I've been trying to figure out the combo too... Had to hack Baluda's excellent code to get both on screen.. I will look forward to a better coding/layout.

Cheers Bob for all the work & Baluda for the great css indi

Padnoter

[nanningbob]

Hi Bob,

That sounds great.. I'm glad you are looking at both H4 & D1 css - your analysis makes a lot of sense & helps me. I can see my mistake on my gbpcad long on Friday pm now!! I've been trying to figure out the combo too... Had to hack Baluda's excellent code to get both on screen.. I will look forward to a better coding/layout.

Cheers Bob for all the work & Baluda for the great css indi

Padnoter

I see you are playing with an earlier idea I had. MTF the Daily onto the 4H chart but it was way to confusing. Here I got his update so now I test it looks like this. This is a preliminary of what I am working on. Notice how the CSS leads you all the way through the trade. USD angling down now, time to get out?? I dont know have not read the chart long enough yet to know best exit signal but USD crossing the 60 240 daily pivot and breaking up above the +20 on the CSS I mean look at that move. EURO goes below the -20 you have a 150+ pip move there and you followed the CSS over a 4 day period. In other words you can see the move coming. Its there you just have to learn to read this thing. Dang I am all excited. And if at anytime these lines reverse well you just get out or cancel your pendings and wait for the next one. I am going to have a firm SL or get out area with this thing, that is if I am reading it right. I obviously dont understand all the nuances yet but just give a couple of weeks of screen time and this thing will be dynamite.