The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[kwanann]

Hannes,

This is currently how i'm looking at EU, remember that US is stopping their tapering so USD is expected to strengthen (i.e EU is going down)

the weekly chart clearly shows when the tapering started and what the MM were trying to do (suck up the longs and give them hell)

The daily shows where u can trade it both ways when pins form, they have been very kind with this pair, giving you about 3 days to get out or take a small profit before it turns against u

the last M15 shows why u can get butchered playing the M and W on the M15 if you do not
1. protect your profits
2. have sufficient screen time
(this is the reason why i dont trade based on M15)

It is also not true that you need to handle loads of DD on the higher TF, they are composed from the lower TF, so if you have an entry on the M15 that also correspond to a pinbar on the higher TF, if you time it correctly (2nd leg) u will generally be green. If it spikes past your SL and then goes back to the direction that you were playing, go plant the 2nd trade and forget about the loss, that happens

What is also important is money management/capital protection. Don't go dumping a full lot trade on 1K capital with a 10pip SL. You will not be able to sleep or tear your eyes away from the screen. Either red or green you will be tempted to do the wrong moves. Play with a lot size and SL that you are comfortable losing if it goes the wrong way.


Good luck!

[pips400]

Hi Hannes, here's my notes on the EU

EURUSD-M15-31-Jan-14.jpg

EURUSD-H1-31-Jan-14.jpg

The spike you mentioned I would call an upthrust/false push/stop hunt, and for the reasons you mentioned. Notice the trading range leading up to that point also. Kwanann explained well the fundamentals underlying the longer term price action, and my bias for the EU is also short at the moment. Price has broken past support, together with OBV, confirming the down swing, however at this stage I would expect some measure of a retrace possibly back up to the high of the upthrust, there has been two successive days down, and price move is above 2ADR. In forex it is always important to look for the possibilities of both long and short, and so even though bias is short, there are possibilities for the long. Certainly on the shorter time frame possibility to trade the W and retrace, but I wouldn't personally because of reward to risk with the broken support could now be resistance. But the break of support could be a spring/stop hunt/false push to trigger shorts before going long - I think that is more unlikely given the OBV confirming price, but at the end of the day there are usually two ways of looking at things so how do you know which way to go - 1. Understanding the time frame and trading accordingly (much said on this already) 2. Not entering into unclear setups 3. Managing reward:risk 4. Looking for manipulation (which is why I use volume and volume based indies a lot) 5. Observing price action as it unfolds in real time. Just my thoughts, and I doubt I will enter long but will probably wait for the retrace and look for a clear setup to go short.

Pips400

[HannesJoubert]

Kwanann & Pips400.

Many thanks for taking the time to reply and for your thoughts...

At this moment I am still trying to get the patterns and tracks of the Fox into my mind. Predicting where price will go, for me at least, will take a bit more time.

CJ has posted that we should not try to predict price, but rather follow the tracks of the Fox, but he has also posted several charts where he has accurately shown where price will go and the path that it would follow to get there. Perhaps I could do that sometime in the future, but not now...

If I sound confused, I think I still am I am trying to wade through all the posts and make sense of it all...

H

[kwanann]

Pips is right about the hard edge. Take a look at eu now go figure whrre it's going. The best practice is to try out the different things you are learning on demo and see how it goes. Be prepared to fail and bust a few accounts before getting it. Take a look at the free 100euro thread. Use those as learning money to get the methodology before pumping real money

[HannesJoubert]

I'm sure that this has been asked before, and I personally don't think that it makes a difference, but it's nagging at me, so I ask here...

Does the server time of the Crim make a difference in this trading? On the lower time frames I doubt that it would have an effect on what the candles and their formations look, but moving up beyond 1H it could surely make a difference?

Thanks

H

:hi:

[kwanann]

H.

Personally no.. But to each his own

[HannesJoubert]

Didn't think so Kwanann, thanks

Take care

[HannesJoubert]

Hi there guys...trust everyone is well?

I tried to experiment today with the pin bars etc I say "etc" because I was originally looking for the M & W on 15mins (again, experimenting here to get a feel for how it is done) and before I knew it I was trading solely on pins.

Ai Ai, haste makes waste...

Today I was lucky in that I managed to close out all trades in aggregate profit (i.e. entered to early and had to re-enter to get a better average price and to allow me to get out earlier)

My haste to trade also meant that whilst I was correct to trade the pins, I completely missed the M formation on EU (only traded one instrument so that I could focus) by entering far to early (i.e. not waiting for the second leg) which meant that my trades ended up being scalps rather than riding for 25 - 50 pips. Also in my favour, I was in the direction of the news spike when it happened and then also caught a portion of the move back down. What I did notice is that my confidence is so shattered that when I get a move in my favour, I am so afraid of losing the green that I close the position far to early. I left a lot of pips on the table, but I am not disappointed with this, I am just happy to have made some profit

So, I made 9 deals for a total of 57 pips but I used CJ's recommendation of trading larger lots with tighter SL (mental).

Attached is the history for today, a total of 25% return for the day Starting equity was only US$ 80

Tomorrow is another day...

One more question though. I have been taught (not on this forum, do not worry) to not trade on Mondays and Fridays, to avoid trading around news times, or better, avoid trading the day before and after a major news announcement, to not trade on the last day of the month ad nauseum, which meant that I could only trade at 2am on the 3rd Thursday morning of the month(not that bad, but I am sure that you get the point.) The question that I am working towards, with this form of naked trading, because we are looking at the tracks of and trying to pin our trades to the Fox, we should not be afraid of trading at any specific time or date, but that we should rather welcome it?


Cheers

H

PS, answers and comments are welcome, that is why I'm posting, I am looking for constructive criticism please.

[intcust]

H,

I hope I can help with your confusion. The way I see it is that CJ is looking at the tracks of the fox because the charts repeat them self. Then he is able to make his predictions because if the fox always (almost always) turns right after two lefts then guess what you know there is going to be a right turn because you just saw the two left turns. So if you know what the fox has just done and what the fox tends to do right after what he has just done you can predict what will come next. It is that simple don't complicate it. Look at the charts until you can see they are all the same just different dates and different time periods. This all starts with the ticks and just moves from there. It does not matter what anyone is saying is going to happen. Look at the charts the fox will tell you what is going to happen because he does the same thing over and over again. look at the one min chart. It does the same thing over and over again. Three levels and three pushes and consolidation then again and again. Of coarse there are a few spikes here and there to trick you they become the same after a while too. So you say or look a little stop hunt up time to sell. The pins and RR are just tracks that did not get covered in the snow and sometimes they are there just to be seen so everyone will jump on it. Then boom price goes the other way. Oh you say it has happened to you of coarse it has happened to all of us. Now we can see it for what it is and take it the other way. Simple Simple Simple. Study charts till they are all the same. F12 should be your favorite key on Empty4. But what do I know I am always wrong.

intcust

[HannesJoubert]

Thanks for taking the time to reply Inctust, I really appreciate it.

Yet another question whilst CJ has let us in on the fact that major news events are used to cover the Foxes tracks (ie news is known beforehand by the major players, so they use these events to get their way). But how do we as nekid traders treat a news heavy week such as this week and next week? Do we stay out, trade lighter than usual or carry on as if nothing is going on (i.e. look at the cycles and trade the M's, W's, pins and RRT's?)

Cheers

H