Simple NFP strategy

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Dewey McG
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by Dewey McG »

I read an interesting strategy to use for NFP. It’s a once a month strategy that is good for 20 pips almost every time. Since the original writer showed 10 months in a row with all winners (up to Nov 2014), I looked at the months since then (Dec 2014 to May 2015). All would have been winners except January. Since SL is only 15 pips and TP is 20, those seem like good odds.

This might not even need an EA really; just a simple script would probably be fine.

The pair used is the Kiwi, the NZDUSD on the 15 minute time frame. I assume this was picked because it gives a decent move without going as crazy as some of the others. NFP is on the first Friday of every month at 8:30 AM EST unless that Friday is the 1st. At 8:15 we place a buy stop order 15 pips above the high of the 8:15 bar and a sell stop 15 pips below the low. SL is 15 pips and TP is 20. A script would help because we want the other order deleted when the first one is triggered.

I tested this on May’s NFP and it worked as advertised. I can post the original article (it was on dukascopy) if everyone is interested, but the PICs below should give the idea. Since NFP is not on the same day each month, can someone write a simple script or EA I can activate on NFP to do this automatically (so I won’t be late to work)?

I would like to forward test this a few months because the one thing we don't know is how bad the spread is at that time. During NFP it can get nasty. My one test in May went fine, but I don't with this pair if that is standard or the exception.
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AnotherBrian

Simple NFP strategy

Post by AnotherBrian »

What time frame are these charts?
Price moves really fast, so if this is a 1 minute chart I have my doubts.
Testing on a demo won't tell you the entire story. Try it on a small live account, and even then if you decide to go with bigger lots things could get hard to fill.
I was looking for some videos of NFP release to watch the price action, then I recorded it once.... quite interesting to watch price jump around like it's having muscle spasms.

Would be a good read anyway if ya want to post it. Then if its bullshit, at least there would be e record here for others as a warning. And if it works, even better!
Dewey McG
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by Dewey McG »

Sorry--the time frames are 15 minutes.

Believe me I do lots of testing before ever doing something on a live account with bigger lots. 15/16 winners caught my attention though
The_Snowman
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by The_Snowman »

Are you saying they bracket a full 15 minutes before the news?

I guess the NZD-USD might get away with it; if it works that good, I be taking the day off work :D

There is an Amazing EA on FF, probably one here too, it brackets about 20 secs before the news

You do all the settings earlier, TP & SL, it does all the work, deletes pending

Here is a 1 minute chart of that day, Axitrader
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Dewey McG
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by Dewey McG »

I did May 8th on demo and it worked, but it was on demo with no slippage. On a live account it might not have worked as well of course. Here is a PIC on a 1 minute chart that shows my trade

if you remember the name of the EA let me know so I can search for it. I might try it with very small lots on a live account to see how it does.
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The_Snowman
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by The_Snowman »

I told you the name already :arrow: Amazing EA

The thread is Straddle Trading EA
Dewey McG
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by Dewey McG »

The_Snowman » Tue May 19, 2015 9:50 pm wrote:I told you the name already :arrow: Amazing EA

The thread is Straddle Trading EA
LOL--I misread. I thought you were just using a superlative.

Thanks
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renexxxx
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by renexxxx »

Since this is such a simple strategy and I had 5 minutes free time, I thought I write some code for it. Mind you, I haven't tested it yet -- we still have to wait until June 5th, 8:15am EST, to see if this EA is working properly. If it doesn't work, we have to wait until the 3rd of July for the next NFP.

There is no explanation to do: just chuck it on the NZDUSD chart (any timeframe is fine) and wait until the next NFP.

Have fun.
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Jemook
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Simple NFP strategy

Post by Jemook »

This strategy will work on a market maker broker giving perfect fills or a demo account. On an ECN broker you will most likely incur high slippage over 100+ pip data announcement moves.

I do not recommend trading this on a live Global Prime account.
Please note I am no longer affiliated with Global Prime. I've moved on to my next adventure with Afterprime.

Catch me here: https://www.afterprime.com
AnotherBrian

Simple NFP strategy

Post by AnotherBrian »

Does anyone have links to video of NFP or other high impact news announcements showing the moves in real time? You can see for yourself how price jumps all over and how your pending order might get crushed with really bad fills.
I haven't found any youtube videos that are good, they switch charts and you cant see the price action very well.

Jem - thanks for chiming in, good to hear from a broker on such a topic.


edit - some videos that show price jumping
3min mark - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g4Zu9jGnoEo
2min mark - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2fxosktT7I
1:30 mark - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9lgilu41tTk
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