Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

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Wavegarrick
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by Wavegarrick »

Hi Charles,
One thing can you post a link here so I and others can find the meat of the method and how to use it as simply as possible for trade entry - I'm guessing it's in HGI somewhere but that is a lot of material to read.
You will find Nanningbobs method in, 10.4 a complete system, was roundabout 2013. I have since then evolved into what I am doing today. The easiest way I find his posts is by scrolling through all his posts in his profile.

You will not be sorry reading all this. Trust me ;)

Cheers
Leon
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RisklessPips
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by RisklessPips »

Wavegarrick » Wed Nov 22, 2017 5:39 pm wrote:Hi Charles,

You will find Nanningbobs method in, 10.4 a complete system, was roundabout 2013. I have since then evolved into what I am doing today. The easiest way I find his posts is by scrolling through all his posts in his profile.

You will not be sorry reading all this. Trust me ;)

Cheers
Leon
Thanks Leon.
Trading is a mind game - good job I have a brain
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Wavegarrick
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by Wavegarrick »

Charles, just to give you a better picture of what I look at. I guess I cannot explain it better more so than with the real deal. Euraud in my case scenario:
EURAUDM5 up 1.png
5 Min crossover in the trend direction
EURAUDM15 up 2.png
15 Min crossover in the trend direction
EURAUDH1 up.png
1hr trend direction up
EURAUDH4 up.png
4Hr trend direction up
EURAUDDaily up.png
Daily trend direction up

The gravy train entry will be with the original cross over of the Daily 60/240 Lwma. These current entries are scale in entries and the original entry will be with the Daily cross over entry. My gravy train.

This is what keeps me alive.

Cheers
Leon
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Wavegarrick
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by Wavegarrick »

Hi Charles,

These trades on Euraud panned out nicely. Locked in and trailing 50 pips jump stop :smile:

Cheers
Leon
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rosalieone
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by rosalieone »

Dear Wavegarrick,
Could the following be helpful for you ?
Best regards
FFx_MovingAverages.ex4
ffx.png
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Wavegarrick
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by Wavegarrick »

Hi Rosalieone,

This is a handy tool for manual trading. Thanks for this. :good:

Cheers
Leon
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by Wavegarrick »

Hi Charles,

Based on the above rules, a currency pair I am looking at for medium to longterm short trades. Early days, We shall see and not everyones currency pair, must admit. Also we want to get into positive swaps when trading this method.

Much will depend on month end going into Nfp and the new month, and well "takes a breath", X mas.

Cheers
Leon
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by RisklessPips »

November has finally ended and I have been demo trading as per my previous posts with the express aim of addressing the specific weakness in trade selection identified at conclusion of posted results in October.

Summary

1) I am now using a very simple chart pattern and HGI signal to enter trades.
2) Several other methods for entry have been suggested on this thread and in my inbox. I have started to look at those and I am already prepared to discard one of them. Details in the next post. Note please review these trade entry methods for yourself, if you are looking for a trade selection method. They may fit your trading style better than mine !
3) The trade selection method I am using produces far fewer trades than was the case when GTWV was “always in.” The noteworthy thing is the fewer trades are producing better results !
4) The main problem identified at end of October was many trades were failing to become GT’s . My adapted trade entry method “seems” to have rectified this and the win rate for seeds is much higher.
5) The account I am trading is the same one in use at end of October. This is important for context purposes. When I went offline I started throwing experimental trade selection methods at the account to see what was working and what wasn’t. By the time I settled on the method I am now using for trade selection I had input a lot of poor trades. The fact that the account is not only alive but doing well is testament to the viability of the new trade entry method in use.

In this post I will write up the test results for November. For readability purposes I will explain the chart pattern and signals I have been using for entry in the next post.

Results GTWV on H4 - EOM 30th November 2017

A :
Cumulative results (From start of open demo account 2/10/17 to End October - initial balance 500 USD)
This week cumulative :clap:
Expectancy per dollar traded = -13.4%,
Expectancy per trade -$0.23
Dataset 92 trades
Absolute gain / loss -$21.55 dollars i.e -4.31% of initial account

B :
Results (From start of open demo account 2/10/17 to 10th November 2017 - initial balance 500 USD)
This week cumulative :?: :?:
Expectancy per dollar traded = -24.1%,
Expectancy per trade -$0.53
Dataset 120 trades
Absolute gain / loss -$63.69 dollars i.e -12.74% of initial account

C :
Results (From 12th November 2017 to end November - initial balance 500 USD)
This week cumulative :clap: :cheer: :clap:
Expectancy per dollar traded = +69%,
Expectancy per trade +$1.16
Dataset 36 trades
Absolute gain / loss +$41.66 dollars i.e +8.33% of initial account

D :
Results (From start of open demo account 2/10/17 to end November - initial balance 500 USD)
This week cumulative :clap: :cheer:
Expectancy per dollar traded = -9.45%,
Expectancy per trade -$0.17
Dataset 186 trades
Absolute gain / loss -$22.03 dollars i.e -4.4% of initial account

Key :

A Shows the cumulative position at end October.
B Shows the results from start of account to after two weeks of experimenting with different entry methods.
C Shows the results for the 2 week period since I settled on a trade entry method that I will detail in the next post.
D Shows the cumulative position since start of demo account to date

Analysis :

Until end October we were only trading 6 pairs. In November, having recognized the limitations of the trade selection method then in use , we expanded the pool of pairs to 13, using the criteria detailed earlier in this thread, in order to find more trading opportunities using a more selective (hence limiting) trade entry method.

The results in November therefore come from a much expanded pool of pairs, but a also much reduced trading frequency because the new trade selection method is more selective.

Indeed during week commencing 20th November GTWV did not trade at all at H4 !!

Looking at the results in C, since I settled on the new selection method I note :

1) +69% expectancy per dollar traded. That means for every dollar traded I could expect 69 cents back. Put in another way, the expectancy per trade was +$1.16.
2) 24 of the 36 trades were seed trades.
3) Out of the 24 seeds, 16 were winners I.e +66.6%. This is a huge improvement from the +25% win rate in October!!
4) The average win in this period was +$2.76. The average loss was -$1.68
5) The overall win rate was 64% (Loss rate therefore 36%)
6) 36 trades in 3 weeks is an average of 12 trades per week or 2.5 trades per day. This is lower than the trading frequency recorded at end of October.

Looking at the results in D, which details results from opening of the account to date and includes trades using the new selection method I note :

1) -9.45% expectancy per dollar traded. That means for every dollar traded I can expect a 10 cent loss. Put in another way, the expectancy per trade was -$0.17. This overall expectancy into December is very encouraging given :

a) The large number of experimental trade entries in this dataset,
b) The poorly performing initial trade selection method until end October and
c) The small pool of pairs traded until end October.

2) The average win in this period was +$2.34. The average loss was -$1.84. This statistic is my favourite. If this extends into the future – the method will produce positive results as far as making money is concerned. That after all is the name of the game.
3) The overall win rate was 40% (Loss rate therefore 60%)

Conclusions :

Selective trade entry has increased the profitability of seeds
The method in use will be detailed in my next post
GTWV on a very small $500 USD account is performing well enough to continue as an experiment through December
The code for GTWV as indicated in my last post can now be simplified. I will be doing this in due course but this is not a hinderance to ongoing testing.

Charles
Trading is a mind game - good job I have a brain
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Wavegarrick
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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes

Post by Wavegarrick »

Hi Guys,

Just a quicky on a method used by me as posted in prior posts in this thread. I by no means want to get in the way of Charles's thought process, nevertheless I have to clear my mind on trades posted just recently on this thread.

ChfJpy broke the down trend line and touched my monthly resistance1. Nervous days indeed. However just re-enforces my belief that these crossovers are powerful. A comeback indeed ;)

Cheers
Leon
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Post by SilverTrader »

:?: :?: :?: :?: :?:
What happened?
Damn? I started this thread just after lunch after coming across it by pure chance only to get to here and find that it goes nowhere past Dec 6th which I find most disapointing? I really, thouroghly enjoyed reading this thread this far and would love to know what has happened since 6th Dec, if anything?
As a manual trader, I must disagree with one point though which I think some folk have come to realise!
I so often hear the phrase "It does not matter where or how you enter, it matters how you manage the trade"

Do me a favour, it matters, it matters a lot how and why you enter a trade and if you don't believe me, I'll publish my entries and you take an opposit trade and lets see who has the easier time 1) Managing their trades and 2) Making a profit?
I use a trend finding system so very similar to Leon's, "Dagse' Boet," and I am sure that he might agree with me. No disrespect to anyone for the work that has been done to date on this amazing journey, but entries (seed trades as they are called here) are very, very important. Start right - Finish great.

I attach a pic below of what I watch. Each timeframe has 3 indicators on it, note the MACD settings, very out of the ordinary, but after years of practice, they work well for me, try them, you might like what you see, and all 4 charts need to agree with all three indicators on each chart making 12 instances that need to show concurence before I trade.

H4 includes HGI, which helps me entering and re entering and determining how far I can push my luck with a turning trend?
GOLDmicro.png
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Kind Regards
Wayne

Never look down on a person, unless you plan to help him up!
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