Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:55 am

My name is Ivan Delgado, Head of Market Research at Global Prime and FX Trader. Out of my unconditional alignment to the values at Global Prime, I am on a mission to pass on my decade-long knowledge by providing regular market commentary and other types of material that is applicable, actionable and insightful to traders (no fillers, no-nonsense). Hopefully, the SHF can benefit.

The nurturing of dozens of contacts over the years at an institutional-level has allowed me to gradually bridge an information gap between what is available to the smart money, and that of the retail trader. I want to share practical information that can be relevant to your trading decisions, and ultimately leave it up to you to decide what may best suit your own interests.

In this thread, I will be providing traders with market commentary on the key headlines by geographic location, will only stick to what matters, both in terms of what has happened and what’s ahead. The summary will be delivered around or ahead of the Asian open on a daily basis. In it, key major themes currently at play will also be touched, while cause-effect analysis will also be explored when warranted.

What You Need to Know for Tuesday, Aug 7th - Major Themes by Geolocation

Australia/NZ:

The Reserve Bank of Australia meeting announcement and statement is due at 0430GMT on 7 August 2018. Today's decision could provide extra insights on the stance of the CB about the Chinese vs US trade war, its implications for Aussie exporters, inflation, housing conditions, etc. Expect increased AUD volatility.

Update: Aussie re-testing offers near 0.74 after RBA proves to be a non-event and keeps rates at 1.5%. Wage growth remains low (Aussie negative), likely to continue for a while, the RBA said. In terms of inflation, the CB reiterates that inflation continues in line with expectations - despite lower than anticipated earlier in the year - (Aussie negative). Inflation seen higher in 2019/20 than currently (Aussie positive). Housing markets have slowed in Sydney, Melbourne (Aussie negative), notwithstanding that tighter bank regulations have helped contain housing risks (Aussie neutral). AUD remains in range of past couple of years (neutral). Overall, and based on the price action, the RBA errs on the side of caution & provides little new insights. Status quo by the Aussie CB to extend as they keep monitoring a multitude of uncertain moving pieces.

NZ traders will keep an eye on the dairy auction during London hours, which tends to inject volatility to the Kiwi. As Westpac’s Sean Callow notes: “Whole milk powder prices fell from April to early July but ticked up at the last auction. Futures price a 1% gain this time.”

China:

The tick for tack trade war between the US and China should stay at the forefront of investors’ minds for weeks to come and represent the main source of uncertainty for global markets. It’s hard to foresee the end of the current punitive narrative by either side, which should keep the risk environment capped.

The People's Bank of China appears to have grown uncomfortable with the pace of depreciation by the Renminbi (RMB), as USD/CNY approaches the 7.00 mark (the pace is steeper than what we saw back in 2015). The reintroduction of a 20% reserve requirements on Yuan forwards trading communicates so.

Trump’s hard-line stance on China continues, threatening to impose 25% tariffs on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. In response, China is looking to add tariffs worth $60 billion on US imports. No side appears to show a predisposition to sit down and negotiate, hence why a full-blown trade war nears...

China’s state media is turning more vocal on the current stance by the US administration: "The White House's extreme pressure and blackmail are already clear to the international community, such methods of extreme blackmail will not bear fruit against China."

The persistent weakening of the Chinese Yuan runs the risk of having continuous spillover effects across Chinese stocks (Shanghai Comp down by over 18% YTD) and in a broader global context. The repercussions for FX, as a rule of thumb, is to see the USD and JPY bode well amid this risk off theme.

Japan:

Change in Japan’s household spending came in line with expectations at -1.2% y/y on Tuesday. As a reminder, the indicator measures the inflation-adjusted value of all expenditures by consumers and tends to be a predictor of potential inflationary pressures. It communicates no risk of CPI increases in the foreseeable future as is well known.

In stark contrast, Japan’s latest figures on cash earnings for June came higher than expected at +3.6% y/y vs +1.7% exp and +2.1% last. Going forward, it may represent upward pressures in consumer spending and hence a tick up in inflation. However, this is not a theme the market is focused on.

Keep an eye on the JGB levels following the dovish tweaks by the Bank of Japan during last week’s monetary policy. More volatility in the JGB market should now be expected after the BoJ target on the 10-year yields widened to 0% +/- 20bp versus +/- 10 bp previously. These wider price swings in the bond market should act a source of further volatility in the Japanese Yen.

Europe:

A major shocker for Germany, as June factory orders came sharply lower at -4.0% vs -0.5% m/m est and +2.6% prior. While the data is hardly ever an EUR mover, it does have some serious macro implications, as the indicator is a fairly accurate predictor of Germany’s GDP trend with a lead by 6 months.

Eurozone August Sentix investor confidence came upbeat at 14.7 vs 13.4 expected. The overall trend in the data series over recent years has been although it had been on a decline through 2018. A welcoming sign for the Eurozone going forward, and most likely to be dependable on trade talks.

Germany’s July construction PMI stood at 50.0 vs 53.0 prior, an underwhelming release which shows the negative trajectory on house building since Dec’s peak of 60.00.

ECB’s Nowotny, in an interview with Der Standard, notes that “slow increase in rates would not harm the EU economy” and that “a hard Brexit may bring a slow decline in the UK as they rely on services more.” The market has placed ECB-related headlines on the backseat after the constant reitrations of ECB’s Draghi to keep rates unchanged until the summer of 2019.

ECB’s Lautenschlaeger spoke to a German newspaper, striking a benign yet cautious tone by saying that “I am very much in favor of normalizing monetary policy. That also means that we should gradually raise interest rates. The pre-condition is that the path to price stability is sustainably strengthened."

UK:

UK govt spokesman James Slack made headlines after noting that UK PM May remains convinced that a no deal with the European Union is better than a bad Brexit deal. From the headlines, one could get a sense that the risk of a no deal appears to be certainly on the rise, which has been reflected in the Sterling’s price action. Slack said preparation are in place for all eventualities.

UK's international trade secretary Fox, in a weekend report, threw cold water into wounded GBP bulls after making a rather bold statement by saying that “no deal most likely Brexit outcome”, adding that "I think the intransigence of the commission is pushing us towards no deal"

US/Canada:

The US is set to re-impose sanctions on Iran effective immediately, according to a government official. The strategic move by the Trump administration is to be able to get the upper hand on a new and better nuclear deal. The sanctions will effectively reinstate the previous bans in place, that is, purchase of US banknotes, gold and precious metals trade, steel, coal, auto industry.

Trump’s latest tweetstorm emphasizes that the US must revert the unfavourable trade deals as an absolute priority. It read: “Great financial numbers being announced on an almost daily basis. Economy has never been better, jobs at best point in history. Fixing our terrible Trade Deals is a priority-and going very well. Immigration on Merit Based System to take care of the companies coming back to U.S.A.”

Anything can happen in the US-China trade war, and signs of a potential compromise should not be fully ruled out, especially after Trump’s economic advisor Kudlow said that the US and the EU were seeking a united front on trade. By the same token, he also said to “not underestimate President Trump’s determination to follow through (on trade threats)”.

Most Canadian banks were closed in observance of Civic Day; In Canada this Wednesday, the Ivey PMI will be released, an indicator to act as a catalyst for some decent volatility in the Loonie. The data is expected to come at 64.2 vs 63. 1 last. If confirmed, will keep the BoC on a hawkish rate hiking path.
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Wed Aug 08, 2018 4:09 am

What You Need to Know for Wed, Aug 8th - Major Themes by Geolocation

Australia/NZ:

The RBA left rates unchanged at 1.5%, stretching yet another month its record-long ‘no-move’ stand. Prior decision 1.50%. The language was fairly balanced, with some minor tweaks to the inflation outlook, which saw a downgrade short-term although is expected to pick up above previous expectations from 2019 and beyond. That should reinforce the RBA’s low rates ‘status quo’ for 2018 and the early part of 2019. With regards to the labour market, the RBA was less equivocal, noting that the unemployment rate is headed towards 5% and as such, we should see some wage pressures pick up in the foreseeable future.

The Australian bond yield curve has been anchored near lows, as short-dated 2-yr yield spreads stay buoyant above the 2% mark, while the long-dated 30-yr paper remains fairly depressed at 3.16% in what has been a steady downtrend. The flattening of the curve implies possible rate hikes coming up next year, but the market is far from factoring in any aggressive tightening campaign by the RBA.

Next focus for Australian traders will be the RBA Monetary Policy Statement on Friday, where new snippets of insights should be provided, as the Central Bank will go into more in-dept about economic and financial conditions, hopefully shedding a light on the implication of the Chinese economic slowdown to the Aussie economy, as well as understanding new updates on prices, employment, housing, etc.

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe gave a speech at the Anika Foundation Lunch. His presentation could be defined as fairly lame, given that no surprise in rhetoric were presente. The RBA still sees no strong case for near-term rate move, adding next rate move likely to be up if economy evolves as expected

The RBNZ's New Zealand 2 year inflation expectations for Q3 came higher at 2.04% y/y vs 2.01% exp, with the rise driven by non-tradeable inflation. Meanwhile, 1 year expectations came at 1.86% vs 1.80% prior.
Next up on Thursday we have the RBNZ monetary policy decision, where the outcome is not as predictable as the RBA, as the RBNZ must reconcile a more challenging landscape of higher inflationary pressures near term, coupled with lower medium-term inflation estimates. Besides, the risks for the NZ economy appear to be mounting on lower consumer/business confidence. The CB is expected to announce a no change in rates at 1.75%, which would then shift all the attention towards the RBNZ's projected OCR path.

China:

China end-July FX reserves came slightly higher at $3.118 trillion vs $3.107 trillion prior. What this implies is that the PBoC had no need to step in and intervene in the Chinese Yuan during its relentless fall. It also telegraphs that the moves must have been perceived as fairly orderly and on generally low volumes.

China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange sent a message of reassurance to the market by saying that FX reserves will remain stable overall while pointing at higher uncertainty in international financial markets.

China’s trade balance figures came lower-than-expected in both yuan and usd terms. However, the crux of the matter here is the pick up in exports and imports, including to and from the US y/y.

Big moves in the Chinese Yuan overnight, with USD/CNY snapped down towards the 6.8 vicinity as the PBoC appears to have drawn, temporarily, a line in the sand in Yuan short speculators after it increased the reserve ratio to 20% in FX forwards, essentially making it more expensive to sell the currency. We saw some spillover effect into the Shanghai Composite, up almost 3%, which in turn ratched up risk trades across the board. As a proxy for risk trades, the Aussie was one of the main outperformers while the USD lagged.

China State Researcher issues updated figures, noting that GDP is set to grow 6.7% in H2 2018. Also sounding optimistic about upward revisions to fixed-asset investment, retail sales and inflation.

Japan:

The Bank of Japan published the latest summary of opinions for the July 30/31 meeting, a meeting where it was decided to widen the wiggle room of the JGBs yield range by an extra 10bp. A highlight included a more direct narrative towards the need to scrutinize and review policy framework to mitigate demerits of easy policy. Interestingly, the report also noted that the Central Bank must adopt a greater focus towards forward guidance on interest rates to show BOJ’s unwavering commitment to hitting price goal. As per rates, the BOJ found it appropriate to allow long-term rates to move double the current range of around -0.1 to 0.1 pct, while allowing long-term rates to move at a range of around -0.25 pct to 0.25 pct.

Europe:

We have a vacant calendar with regards to European data. In the last 24h though, we learnt that the France June trade balance came worse-than-expected at -€6.25 bn vs -€5.52 bn prior, extending the downtrend after the figures peaked out around -3.5 bn last December. Any way you slice it, one can imagine the EUR will use the data as a factor to present to the US when coming to the table to negotiate a trade deal with the US.

Germany June trade balance was further inflated to €21.8 billion vs €20.9 billion prior, with exports holding up quite well. The data is in stark contrast to the numbers seen by France. One one hand it won’t help the case to broker a trade deal with the US when details get negotiated but on the other hand, German officials can breathe a sigh of relief as worries on a possible slowdown in activity amid trade war talks is not yet feeding through into the actual numbers, despite other areas such as industrial activity show more worrisome signs.

As a reminder, European-based indicators are largely non-volatile events for the EUR short-term but have serious implications for the economic outlook of the region going forward, and as such it’s constantly analyzed by bond traders. In this front, it’s worth pointing out the slump in German bond yields during August, causing the curve to flatten towards levels not seen since late 2016, last at 1.64.

UK:

An uneventful day in terms of economic data from the UK on Tuesday. BOE's McCafferty spoke to LBC Radio, saying that “It's a reasonable rule of thumb to expect a couple more rate hikes over the next couple years.”

According to a Bloomberg headline, quoting an official familiar with the matter, the UK appears to be mulling a plan to push the Brexit deal deadline from mid-Oct into the end of November on the basis that Trump will act as an inevitable distraction heading into the G-20 summit. However, other sources are suggesting that the actual intentions from the EU are to bring the deadline closer to the third week of Sept. Go figure. Short term, the UK is still awaiting a response to the strategic white paper sent to the EU authorities.

UK July Halifax house price index stood at +1.4% vs +0.2% m/m exp. In terms of historical data, it shows the trend is still down overall but short term it adds to the slew of positive data out of the UK in recent times. That said, make no mistake, Brexit is the absolute main driver and the BoE has already stated that they intend to raise rates at a paltry pace of one per year, so you can probably place this data in the back pocket for now.

US/Canada:

A leaked document suggests Putin lobbied Trump on arms control, according to Politico. It suggests he was interested to extend the Obama-era nuclear-reduction treaty. If the story gets more airtime, watch potential volatility in pairs such as the USD/JPY.

US June JOLTS came at 6662K vs 6625K exp. Looking at all the details, it’s an overall solid report. At this stage, is abundantly clear that the labour market remains very strong. However, for the Fed to flex its muscle on more aggressive tightening, wages must be the component to show further strength.

In Canada, we saw a disappointing July Ivey PMI at 61.8 vs 63.1 prior. The reaction in the Loonie was rather tame, especially as CAD flows originated from areas of greater focus. Not to mention that the Markit PMI has now taken over as the main predictor for the state of the manufacturing sector in Canada.

Saudi Arabia has frozen all trade and investment with Canada, which is further evidence of the sharp deterioration in relationships between the two Oil-rich nations. Further headlines included that Saudi Arabia has summoned the ambassador to Canada for consultation, according to Saudi Press Agency. The news follows an ongoing dispute in which Canada demands the release of rights activists out of Saudi Arabia. The present sum of investment by Saudi Arabia in Canada looks too low to have a significant impact on the Loonie though.
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Thu Aug 09, 2018 12:20 am

What You Need to Know for Thursday, Aug 9th - Major Themes by Geolocation

Australia/NZ:

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Philip Lowe gave a speech at the Anika Foundation Lunch. While no insights were presented, he did give away a reassuring rhetoric that the mid-term inflation trajectory is moving towards the middle of the historical CPI band around 2.5 and that implies that all things being equal, we may see the Central Bank starting to lift rates some months ahead. At the moment, the market is pricing in a 77% chance of a first move in rates by Sept of 2019. The RBA remains positive on the labour market, cautious on the inflation prospects near-term, while monitoring closely the tit for tat trade war between the US and China.

Next focus for Australian traders will be the RBA Monetary Policy Statement on Friday, where new snippets of insights should be provided, as the Central Bank will go into more in-dept about economic and financial conditions, hopefully shedding a light on the implication of the Chinese economic slowdown to the Aussie economy, as well as understanding new updates on prices, employment, housing, etc.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged as expected at 1.75%. The Bank downgraded its outlook for rates. RBNZ sees official cash rate at 1.8% in December 2018 , although going forward, official cash rate is projected at 1.8% in September 2019 (pvs 1.8%), 1.8% in December 2019 (pvs 1.9%), while NZD TWI was also cut back to 72.8% in September 2019 (pvs 74.0%). NZD took a hit. RBNZ Governor Orr said “"We expect to keep the OCR through 2019 and into 2020 longer than we projected in our May Statement. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down."

China:

The trade tensions between China and the US have entered an ugly and fractious stage of tit for tat retaliation. The latest episode frames it well, as China just imposed 25% tarifs on $16b worth of US goods in response to identical punitive measures by the US on Chinese goods imports. As long as neither party coomes to the table to ease the current tense situation, it’s hard to image a sustainable bening environment for risk assets, with currencies the likes of the Japanese Yen, Swiss Franc or the US Dollar set to stay firmly bid.

The next focus is on Chinese CPI/PPI figures. Note, inflation is far from being top of the list for the Chinese Central Bank (PBoC), currently running at an annual rate of 1.9%. The fact that figures are not running away should, coupled with the focus being much more centered around stimulating economic activity, should lead to a fairly tepid reaction in the markets. So far, events such as the weakening of the Yuan or the near-term stimulatory measures to inject a new impulse of credit into the economy clearly telegraph that the country assumes that inflation is well under control, which reinforces the notion of CPI being not a major focus.

The latest performance by the Chinese Yuan and the onshore stock market was far from inspiring on Wed, with the currency being knocked down again (around 6.85 against the USD), with the Shanghai Composite giving back half of its nearly 3% gains from Tuesday. The laggardish results in Chinese assets kept the bid tone in the US Dollar on Wed, although the Japanese Yen benefited the most.

Japan:

Thursday marks the start of U.S.-Japan trade talks. The outperformance of the Japanese Yen on Wed may partly be explained on the positive prospects of the negotiations that are to take place. However, investors should be cautious as the US hardline stance is by now well known. That said, they seem to be off to a solid start, as enough evidence has been provided that both parties are willing to work together. In the case of Japan, there is a proposal on the table to setting up a sovereign wealth fund to invest in U.S. infrastructure projects as well as U.S.-Japan joint projects in third countries. Further details will be obtained during this week.

The Bank of Japan published the latest summary of opinions for the July 30/31 meeting, a meeting where it was decided to widen the wiggle room of the JGBs yield range by an extra 10bp. A highlight included a more direct narrative towards the need to scrutinise and review policy framework to mitigate demerits of easy policy. Interestingly, the report also noted that the Central Bank must adopt a greater focus towards forward guidance on interest rates to show BOJ’s unwavering commitment to hitting price goal. As per rates, the BOJ found it appropriate to allow long-term rates to move double the current range of around -0.1 to 0.1 pct, while allowing long-term rates to move at range of around -0.25 pct to 0.25 pct.

Europe:

The ECB is set to release its economic bulletin, in which it offers statistical data the Governing Board evaluates when making the latest interest rate decision. The latest assessment on economic conditions will also be published. It’s a good chance for the market to get an update on the ECB’s outlook for the EU-wide economy.

An area to watch with interest in coming weeks should be Italy as Italy’s PM Di Maio vows to repeat tough tactics in his budget dispute with the EU. In an interview with Bloomberg, he said to be seeking 'confrontation' with EU, rather than a clash. So far, the Euro has been fairly muted to the heightened tensions around Italy, as the focus has shifted towards US vs China trade threats. Italy’s 10-yr bond yields rose to 2.89% on Wed, which should be seen as a proxy to understand renewed concerns by bond traders. Lastly, Italy's Tria has reiterated that the government is not questioning its euro membership.

UK:

A back-to-back uneventful day in terms of UK newsflow, which was seen by technical traders as the green light to keep selling the Sterling following the recent decisive breakout of the 1.30 area as the narrative around a no deal on Brexit is picking up. On the contrary, the FTSE 100 outperformed due to a weakening Pound.

US/Canada:

Fed's Barkin said that the CB should continue raising rates as benchmark not yet back to normal level. The banker sounded optimistic on the renewed impulse of the US economy, highlighting how low the unemployment rate has gotten, adding that the Fed should follow through with normalizing rates. On China, Barkin said that the tariff by both countries are making people more nervous, while noting that the real challenge for the US is achieving sustained growth. Overall, a fairly hawkish stance that reinforces the notion of another rate hike by the US before the end of 2018.

The US will release the PPI figures, as well as unemployment claims. In terms of PPI, it will helps us understand, as a leading indicator of consumer inflation, as it analyzes the change in the price of finished goods and services sold by producers. It will be interesting to find out whether or not producers will be passing on potential higher costs due to the US vs Chinese trade war on to the consumer. Expectations suggests that it may be still too early to get an accurate picture given the recent introduction of the tariffs.

Canada is scheduled to come back to the negotiating table with the US as NAFTA talks are set to resume next week. The US and Mexico have been working to reach separated trade deals on cars first.

Saudi officials have instructed asset managers to dispose of Canadian holdings, including equities, bonds and cash holdings, according to a report by the Financial Times. The Saudi sovereign wealth fund holds around $500 billion of foreign assets, and reports suggest the selling had been immediate, starting last Tuesday, which allows us to connect the dots on the selling flows seen in the Canadian Dollar this week.

The diplomatic crisis between Canada and the Saudis follows the former getting its nose on other nations’ affairs, after Chrystia Freeland, Canada's foreign minister, called for the release of Samar Badawi, a prominent Saudi women's rights activist, who happens to have Canadian relatives.

Canada June building permits stod at -2.3% vs -0.1% prior. The slump was mainly driven by housing permits, which were down 5.7%, while non-residential permits picked up by 4.6%. The historical data suggests that traders should take the numbers with a pinch of salt as they tend to vary wildly.
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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IvanD
 
Posts: 443
Joined: Thu Jun 01, 2017 6:04 am

Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Fri Aug 10, 2018 12:47 am

What You Need to Know for Friday, Aug 10th - Major Themes by Geolocation

Australia/NZ:

The New Zealand Dollar got annihilated after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its official cash rate unchanged as expected at 1.75%, despite issuing a worrying outlook for inflation and growth. The Bank downgraded its outlook for rates as well as the economic activity. RBNZ Governor Orr said “"We expect to keep the OCR through 2019 and into 2020 longer than we projected in our May Statement. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down." Meanwhile, RBNZ assistant governor John McDermott in an interview even touched on the possibility that a rate cut outcome has increased going forward.

In today’s RBA Monetary Policy Statement, the Central Bank will be providing more detail over the decision to leave the cash rate unchanged on Tuesday. Lowe will dive deeper into economic and financial conditions, with some volatility expected in the Aussie Dollar. The market will be most keen to understand new snippets of information regarding the growth, labour and inflation outlook, while not being too concerned on the exchange rate. At present time, the market is pricing over 70% chances of a rate hike by Sept next year.

China:

China’s July CPI came a tad higher than expected at 2.1% vs 2%, with food CPI ar 0.5% y/y, while non-food hit 2.4% y/y. As a reminder, China aims for a 3% CPI goal this year, hence the data is within comfortable limits. As per the PPI, it came at 4.6% y/y vs 4.5% expected. The risk on tone post data release boosted the Aussie, although it failed to gain much follow through heading into the US session.

The handling of U.S. trade dispute by Chinese authorities is causing a rift in the Chinese leadership, according to Reuters. The report states that “an overly nationalistic Chinese stance may have hardened the U.S. position, according to four sources close to the government.” The article argues that the ongoing tick for tack trade ware is revealing some rare cracks in the ruling Communist Party.

China’s stock index Shanghai Composite continues to recover, up by 0.75%, after the slight uptick in Chinese inflation. Meanwhile, some stabilization in the USD/CNY is lending support and should keep risky assets buoyant, especially if one analyzes the Yuan against a basket of G10 currencies, extending gains quite significantly and further anchoring a temporary ease over the excessive one-sided Yuan short bets.

Japan:

Japan Q2 preliminary GDP data came at 0.5% q/q vs 0.3% exp, which is a solid beat on estimates. Additionally, the GDP annualized (seasonally adjusted) for Q2, preliminary y/y, also saw a positive reading of 1.9% vs 1.4% expected and -0.6% last. The data is music to the ears of BoJ officials, hoping that a benign growth outlook may result in greater underlying price pressures in the economy. However, when one has such a cyclically horrendous demographic problem as Japan does, achieving such 2% annual CPI objective still appears elusive.

According to the latest Bloomberg survey on 42 economists: BOJ watchers now see less chance of future policy changes in 2019 with 57% of respondents expecting the BOJ taking action after 2019 vs a previous survey in July that showed in only 41% expecting action beyond 2019. The survey also reinforces the view that the inflation target appears to be increasingly unattainable with almost 75% of respondents expecting a 2% target reached after 2022.

Japan Core Machinery Orders for June saw a massive disappointment, coming at -8.8% m/m vs -1% expected. Appeasing the nerves was the fact that preliminary data published for July came upbeat. The series of orders numbers tend to lead capex by up to 9 months, so it’s a good predictor of the economic health.

Thursday marked the start of U.S.-Japan trade talks. Both parties are having a collaborative approach, with a proposal on the table to setting up a sovereign wealth fund to invest in U.S. infrastructure projects as well as U.S.-Japan joint projects in third countries. Further details will be obtained during this week.

Europe:

The ECB published the release of its economic bulletin for its July meeting, pointing at the heightened risks to the global economy, despite identifying the current indicators as still suggesting broad-based growth. Other headlines included the threat of protectionism remains prominent, risk of heightened market volatility. There was an absence of narrative towards monetary policy, which was reflected in the Euro’s muted reaction.

In Turkey, the Lira has been on free-fall, reaching fresh record lows. The weakening of the currency is fueled by a tougher stance by the Trump administration towards Turkey's duty-free access to the U.S. market, which may see as much as $1.66 billion of Turkish exports affected. The market is therefore factoring in a decrease in international demand flows for the Turkish Lira. Earlier this week, the Turkish central bank announced that the upper limit of foreign currency reserve was cut while adjusting the reserve requirement ratio lower.

UK:

BOE McCafferty, who steps down this month as a member of the Central Bank, said that the UK wage growth is expected to near 4% next year, according to a Guardian interview. She added that sees a need for 2 rate hikes in the next 18 months to 2 years, BOE hasn't left rate increases too late.

According to Business Insider sources, the EU is rumoured to offer a major Brexit concession to UK PM May, which may involve keeping Britain as part of the single market. Judging by the reaction in the Sterling in the hours that followed, the market appears to be taking the news with a pinch of salt, as it would be largely conflictive with the very own views of the main EU Brexit negotiator Barnier, not to mention that it would most likely not sit well by parliamentary representatives in the UK.

A data-rich day in Britain, with the release of the monthly as well as the preliminary Q2 GDP figures. While the former is expected to come slightly lower than last month, the q/q look set to have increased by 0.4%, which would represent a 0.2bp improvement from the figures seen in Q1. Manufacturing production, trade balance and business investment will also be published at the same time.

US/Canada:

Fed’s Evans took his hawkish stance a notch higher, which in turn allowed the US Dollar to see an increase in buy-side flows on Thursday. Evans said the economic fundamentals are strong, the labor market is still improving, adding that the economy is generating inflation close to Feds 2% goal. Importantly, he said the Fed may become restrictive in 2020 but could be 2019, while recognizing that trade tariffs add uncertainty.

Mexico's economic minister Guajardo sounded optimistic on NAFTA talks as they aim to nail an auto deal. He said "definitely encouraged to keep on working, covering all the items that we have to cover."

The Atlanta Fed Q3 GDPNow model is currently at 4.32% vs 4.37% prior. The new updated note read: “The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2018 is 4.3 percent on August 9, down from 4.4 percent on August 3. After this morning's wholesale trade report from the U.S. Census Bureau and this morning's Producer Price Index release from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the nowcast of the contribution of inventory investment to third-quarter real GDP growth declined from 1.95 percentage points to 1.91 percentage points.”

Ahead of Friday’s US CPI data, the US June PPI came on the soft side, last at 0.0% vs +0.2% m/m exp, with the subcomponents not boding well either. Today’s headline and core inflation data out of the US are anticipated to come at 0.2% m/m, which would represent a slight uptick from last month’s headline figure.

In Canada, the June new housing price index stood at +0.1% m/m vs +0.1% exp. The main focus has completely shifted towards the country’s latest employment numbers, set to inject the usual volatility in the Loonie. The market expects over 18k new jobs to have been created in July, while the unemployment rate is seen dropping to 5.9% vs 6%. If the data is firm enough, it should solidify the case for further rate hikes by the BoC.

Canada finance minister talked to reporters, noting that the Saudi Arabia situation remains fluid. Canada is watching situation carefully, adding that Canadian-based assets have not seen significant market reaction to Saudi moves. The minister also said he cannot yet fully quantified impact of Saudi measures.
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Mon Aug 13, 2018 12:19 am

What You Need to Know for Monday, Aug 13th - Major Themes by Geolocation

Australia/NZ:

The most recent NZ manufacturing PMI for July continues to suggests an economy that is running out of juice, after a 51.2 read vs 52.8 prior. Last week’s RBNZ reflected such slowing trend in iits statement. According to BNZ economists “growth forecasts for the second half of 2018 are on notice” after the reading. To make matters worse for the Kiwi, Fonterra cut its 2017/2018 farm gate milk price to NZD 6.70/kg last Friday. According to the headlines via Bloomberg, FY earnings may be less than 25 - 30 NZ cents per share, which would results in the corporation being in no position to pay a final dividend.

As per the RBA SoMP from last Friday, the usual mantra applied. The main highlights included an upgrade to their growth forecast for 2018 to 3.25% from 3%, while also raising the GDP for June 2019 to 3.5 from 3.25. As per the CPI, short-term we saw both the headline and core adjusted lower to 1.75% from 2.25% and 2.00%. Meanwhile, heading into H2 2019, the inflation forecast is seen at 2% from 2.25%. No change in the unemployment forecasts, with expectations for 5% next year.

China:

The market has temporarily shifted its focus away from the Chinese Renminbi as the Turkish crisis escalates. With that said, worth noting the latest action by the PBOC, after it announced it will deepen market-based interest rate reform aimed at improving the deleveraging work and strengthening flexibility of yuan levels

Japan:

As a reminder, Japan Q2 preliminary GDP data came at 0.5% q/q vs 0.3% exp, which is a solid beat on estimates, although from a broader context, the data somehow just acts as merely offsetting the slower-than-expected economic growth seen in the country earlier this year. The hope is that the growth outlook may result in greater underlying price pressures in the economy.

Japan Economy Minister Motegi told Kyodo news that there were productive talks with the US on trade. He met with Robert Emmet Lighthizer, a US government official who is the current United States Trade Representative. While details are still lacking, they seemed to agree on expanding trade ties. The Minister said that they will convene with their US counterparts around September again, in order to further define talks.

Europe:

The unequivocal focus remains in the escalating Turkish crisis, which appears to be getting out of control judging by the disruptive fall in the Lira since Friday, down more than 15% and over 45% lowe YTD. The decline in the valuation of the Lira has accelerated sharply since the open of markets on Monday.

Fears of contagion risks after reports hinted a worried ECB, especially on the debt exposure to Turkey of some European banks in Spain, Italy and France, namely BBVA, UniCredit and BNP Paribas. As the FT notes: “The ECB is concerned about the risk that Turkish borrowers might not be hedged against the lira’s weakness and begin to default on foreign currency loans, which make up about 40 per cent of the Turkish banking sector’s assets.”

The Turkish Lira comes at a time when US President Trump has been flexing his muscle on Turkey, doubling down on the tough trade conditions towards the steel and aluminium in the form of higher tariffs to the US.

Erdogan’s speech and subsequent policy actions have only caused further unrest in the markets, as he failed to provide concrete amid an unambiguous defiant stance, saying Turkey will find new allies.

Turkish President Erdogan has been speaking publicly over the weekend. He is trying to put some sort of stop to the slide in the currency but with fear (eg. of capital controls, a damaging impact on the economy, further depreciation … in a nutshell the fear on TRY is that if you don't sell it now you'll get a worse rate by holding off) the dominating emotion it'll take drastic action, not just words, to have an impact.

Erdogan goes on a combative rhetoric, saying that "It is not only our duty to keep this nation alive, but also the duty of the industrialist's merchant. Otherwise, I will have to implement plan B plan C, a perception operation is being conducted over the explanations.” "No person, government or rating agency has the right to threaten Turkey and the Turkish people."

Rabobank is out with a note to clients warning of the heightened risk of shrinking confidence among Turkish households and corporates may result in a run on the country's banks in the coming days, adding that without more coordinated policy efforts it would be "difficult to expect a respite for the battered lira and local assets."

While politicians will always reject the actions, the mere fact that seizing deposits is becoming a buzzword among growing fears of the local population is sufficient evidence to suggests that regulators may indeed implement certain mechanisms to seize deposits. Turkey officials said that authorities will take necessary measures with Turkish banks and banking watchdog, gives no details and that by no means seizing or converting dollar-denominated accounts to liras will be considered.

The combination of over expansionary growth-centric economic measures, with inflation running away from the Central Bank’s 5% mandate for almost a decade, coupled with a poor current account deficit and deteriorating global liquidity amid dollar-funded balance sheets is a recipe for disaster in Turkey.

Turkey bank regulator has announced a limit to swap transactions in an effort to appease the fall in the Lira. Meanwhile, Fahrettin Altun, Communications Director, Turkish Presidency said that Turkey is ready to put up a fight and noting that the economy is strong enough to win the war via a nation-State Union.

The crisis in Turkey has had immediate spillover effects in the value of the Euro and emerging market assets, with the former breaking a major support at 1.15 and seeing significant follow through action on Friday. At the same time, the Russian ruble has been caught in the crossfire of US Trump’s protectionist trade policies, which has led to a major collapse in the value of the Russian currency, further worsening the EM sell-off.

Russia's Medvedev said Moscow will treat US sanctions as act of economic war. The USD/RUB has recently seen a spike to highs not seen since August 2016. The Central Bank of Russia is ready to reduce forex buying to reduce volatility in the market, according to sources.

UK:

The latest slew of economic data saw the UK Q2 preliminary GDP come in line with expectations at +0.4%. When drilling down into the data, household spending in Q2 was the poorest in over 6 years. The data is not going to increase the risks of a more hawkish BoE by any means.

The UK June manufacturing production saw a slight upbeat at +0.4% vs +0.3% m/m exp, while the UK June trade balance came at -£11.38 bn vs -£12.36 bn prior. These two events won’t have much impact on the Pound, which remains under pressure amind heavy buying interest towards the US Dollar.

US/Canada:

Friday’s US CPI for July m/m came at 0.2%, and so did the core CPI, with both readings in line with expectations. There was only one surprise in the components, which is the yearly core CPI a tad higher at 2.4% vs 2.3%. The data was treated as a temp risk out of the way to keep buying USD amid the Turkish crisis. The numbers also suggest the Fed is on track to raise rates one more time this year.

The Canadian July employment came at +54.1K vs +17.0K expected, however, this time the subcomponents showed a weaker labour market as the majority of new hires were part time, while full time jobs saw a decrease of 28.0K vs +9.1K prior. Hourly earnings on pema employees were also significantly lower at +3.0% vs +3.5% prior. On the bright side, participation rate went up to 65.4% vs 65.4% expected, while the unemployment rate was 5.8% vs 5.9% expected. Overall, the data is mixed and while may be considered good enough for the Bank of Canada to stick to its guns and keep tightening its policy, is not ideal.
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby Jemook » Mon Aug 13, 2018 4:07 am

Hi Ivan,

Nice wrap-up of some very volatile markets lately. Have any tips on Turkish Lira and how that is leading to USD buying across the board?

Cheers
Jeremy
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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Tue Aug 14, 2018 12:38 am

What You Need to Know for Tuesday, Aug 14th - Major Themes by Geolocation

Overall, Monday came to an end and a mixed sweet-bitter feeling prevailed, with the drama in Turkish Lira set to rule the markets for days if not weeks, although a sight of relief was also felt, as judging by the calamitous falls in EM currencies on Monday, it could have been much worse. Ultimately, intraday bottom pickers managed to see risky bets pay off as the markets pared some of the Asian-led losses.

The US Dollar index ends quite flat for the day, while the Aussie Dollar, as a direct proxy of risk-off, fell by 0.5%. The Turkish Lira saw losses of over 8% but managed to contain the decline just ahead of the 7.00 round number. Global stocks suffered, especially bank shares for European banks with debt exposure in Turkey. A notable mover was Gold, breaking the 1,200usd.

Read the full article at Global Prime.

Link: https://www.globalprime.com.au/news/nee ... source=shw
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:45 am

Hey Jeremy,

Question: Nice wrap-up of some very volatile markets lately. Have any tips on Turkish Lira and how that is leading to USD buying across the board?

Answer:

The market is an immense equation that entangles complexities that fortunately can be broken down to understand certain behaviors. In the case of the US Dollar, especially on an environment of a Fed that is on a firm tightening campaign, and still diverging from the rest of G10 Central Banks, investors are perceiving by default a currency that is still very much in motion to attract constant flows of capital as the US bond yields rise and as a result, the attractiveness of holding US Dollars in expectations of a higher yield.

Then let's throw into the mix the current trade war. What this entails is potentially a full-blown crisis with long-lasting effects that may lead China to use the Renminbi as a policy tool to offset some of the effects from higher tariffs to the US, which makes the Big Panda less competitive. When the Yuan experiences a substantial decline, as we've seen recently, given that China constitutes such a huge percentage of the total global growth, it accounted for over 15% in 2017 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/24/in ... ivvied-up/), it has negative repercussions on the Chinese economy but also on the global outlook. The situation in China is especially tricky as the government works on policies of deleveraging while obliged to maintain access to liquidity and to a certain extent, credit and money supply/velocity of circulation for the economy to flourish.

The drop in the Yuan, if it has spillover effects into the broader emerging markets complex, leads to a loss of confidence by investors, what is often referred to as a flight to safety, and in this scenario, the option of last resort tends to be the appeal of currencies such as the Yen, Franc, US Dollar. In a way, over the decades this behavior is a well-established paradigm and has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. A few years ago, it was the Euro that would also enjoy risk aversion flows given its profile as a funding currency due to low rates. However, expectations of higher rates elsewhere have seen a change in how investors treat the Euro, especially if underlying issues emanating from Europe (Italy, Turkey) are still present.

Anyway, so with the backdrop I just described, and as the crisis in Turkey gets out of control, it has been the straw that broke the camel's back to see an acceleration of the panic selling and as such, the heavy buying in USDs as global investors reduce their exposure into EM and re-allocate capital into the risk-off assets above described as the USD, JPY, CHF. As per Turkey, for a prolonged period of time, they've been what in conventional economics is never supposed to happen if one aims for stability. The country runs a major current account deficit, what goes in (imports) far exceeds what goes out (exports) so the balance of payments is skewed towards a reliance on foreign capital inflows to offset the current account, not to mention that they have accumulated a significant foreign-denominated currency debt, which based n how low the Lira is (-50% or thereabouts YTD) makes debt payment obligations really hard.

Bottom line, we have an environment that represents the perfect storm for further USD buying, especially on the major breakout of the DXY. That said, be smart and choose your levels carefully as we are not on major overextended levels hence there is little value buy the USD at such hefty prices unless you are an intraday trader in and out within minutes or hours. As per the Turkish Lira, most of the damage appears to have been done, with the falls on Monday being quite climactic in nature which tends to communicate a potential temporary bottom might be nearing. The ball is on Erdogan's courtyard to increase investors' confidence and increase the perception that there is value on making new gradual allocation at these cheap prices in the Turkish Lira, although for now, while valuations are very low, there is no value holding the Lira unless they revert the course of action with more welcoming policies such as recieving assitance from the IMF, increase interest rates as an emergency action, etc.

A volatile August indeed...
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby SteveHopwood » Tue Aug 14, 2018 11:02 pm

IvanD » Tue Aug 14, 2018 1:45 am wrote:Hey Jeremy,

Question: Nice wrap-up of some very volatile markets lately. Have any tips on Turkish Lira and how that is leading to USD buying across the board?

Answer:

The market is an immense equation that entangles complexities that fortunately can be broken down to understand certain behaviors. In the case of the US Dollar, especially on an environment of a Fed that is on a firm tightening campaign, and still diverging from the rest of G10 Central Banks, investors are perceiving by default a currency that is still very much in motion to attract constant flows of capital as the US bond yields rise and as a result, the attractiveness of holding US Dollars in expectations of a higher yield.

Then let's throw into the mix the current trade war. What this entails is potentially a full-blown crisis with long-lasting effects that may lead China to use the Renminbi as a policy tool to offset some of the effects from higher tariffs to the US, which makes the Big Panda less competitive. When the Yuan experiences a substantial decline, as we've seen recently, given that China constitutes such a huge percentage of the total global growth, it accounted for over 15% in 2017 (https://foreignpolicy.com/2017/02/24/in ... ivvied-up/), it has negative repercussions on the Chinese economy but also on the global outlook. The situation in China is especially tricky as the government works on policies of deleveraging while obliged to maintain access to liquidity and to a certain extent, credit and money supply/velocity of circulation for the economy to flourish.

The drop in the Yuan, if it has spillover effects into the broader emerging markets complex, leads to a loss of confidence by investors, what is often referred to as a flight to safety, and in this scenario, the option of last resort tends to be the appeal of currencies such as the Yen, Franc, US Dollar. In a way, over the decades this behavior is a well-established paradigm and has become a self-fulfilling prophecy. A few years ago, it was the Euro that would also enjoy risk aversion flows given its profile as a funding currency due to low rates. However, expectations of higher rates elsewhere have seen a change in how investors treat the Euro, especially if underlying issues emanating from Europe (Italy, Turkey) are still present.

Anyway, so with the backdrop I just described, and as the crisis in Turkey gets out of control, it has been the straw that broke the camel's back to see an acceleration of the panic selling and as such, the heavy buying in USDs as global investors reduce their exposure into EM and re-allocate capital into the risk-off assets above described as the USD, JPY, CHF. As per Turkey, for a prolonged period of time, they've been what in conventional economics is never supposed to happen if one aims for stability. The country runs a major current account deficit, what goes in (imports) far exceeds what goes out (exports) so the balance of payments is skewed towards a reliance on foreign capital inflows to offset the current account, not to mention that they have accumulated a significant foreign-denominated currency debt, which based n how low the Lira is (-50% or thereabouts YTD) makes debt payment obligations really hard.

Bottom line, we have an environment that represents the perfect storm for further USD buying, especially on the major breakout of the DXY. That said, be smart and choose your levels carefully as we are not on major overextended levels hence there is little value buy the USD at such hefty prices unless you are an intraday trader in and out within minutes or hours. As per the Turkish Lira, most of the damage appears to have been done, with the falls on Monday being quite climactic in nature which tends to communicate a potential temporary bottom might be nearing. The ball is on Erdogan's courtyard to increase investors' confidence and increase the perception that there is value on making new gradual allocation at these cheap prices in the Turkish Lira, although for now, while valuations are very low, there is no value holding the Lira unless they revert the course of action with more welcoming policies such as recieving assitance from the IMF, increase interest rates as an emergency action, etc.

A volatile August indeed...

The markets that most of us at SHF trade have not been particularly volatile so far this August. Mostly they have been fast asleep.

You do understand what SHF is all about, don't you?

You appear to me to be saying the usual Talking Head stuff and it is this:
  • The markets might go up.
  • The markets might go down.
  • Or they might move sideways.
  • I do not know what will happen.

Couldn't do better than this could you? Bollocks like this is not welcome at SHF.
Read the effing manual, ok?

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Global Prime: Daily Market Digest

Postby IvanD » Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:34 am

Hi all,

Find the latest market recap. These are articles for informational purposes only. It unpacks the latest action seen in the last 24h in a one-stop shop format that is easy to follow and save you time.

https://www.globalprime.com.au/news/nee ... source=shw
As Head of Market Research at Global Prime with over a decade of experience in capital markets, I focus on providing expert market analysis from a technical and fundamental standpoint to Global Prime’s global clients and media outlets, with currencies the area of most expertise and dedication.

My views on the FX market are insightful and actionable, connecting the dots to interpret market dynamics and uncover opportunities. I dive into monetary and fiscal policies, economic data, geopolitics & macro fundamentals. My role also includes oversight of Global Prime’s brand reach globally.

LinkedIn profile: https://www.linkedin.com/in/ivan-delgado-79b770a/
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