Economics

A forum for discussing macroeconomics
Post Reply
User avatar
SteveHopwood
Owner
Posts: 9754
Joined: Tue Nov 15, 2011 8:43 am
Location: Misterton - an insignificant village in England. Very pleasant to live in.

Economics

Post by SteveHopwood »

nanningbob » Wed Mar 14, 2018 8:18 pm wrote:I have increased my Forex account almost 30% playing USD weakness. I've closed all my long term trades because I have no idea how Trumps tariffs will play on the markets. With news that he has another 30 tariffs planned I decided to drop long term trades. Anyone have ideas what tariffs will do to the Forex markers??
Congrats on a fabulous result of your trading. :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :party: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!: :!!:

I am thrilled to read your post. It is the sort of post that makes my life worthwhile. Please send my love to Patti.

:xm: :rocket:
Read the effing manual, ok?

Afterprime is the official SHF broker. Read about them at https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?p=175790#p175790.

I still suffer from OCCD. Good thing, really.

Anyone here feeling generous? My paypal account is always in the market for a tiny donation. [email protected] is the account.

To see The Weekly Roundup of stuff you guys might have missed Click here

My special thanks to Thomas (tomele) for all the incredible work he does here.
User avatar
nanningbob
Trader
Posts: 4560
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:23 pm

Economics

Post by nanningbob »

Thanks Steve. A trip to Europe is on the list in 2019.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
User avatar
nanningbob
Trader
Posts: 4560
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:23 pm

Economics

Post by nanningbob »

Markets are not for the weak. Two major factors being unleashed:

1. Tariffs--Markets need certainty ... (but that) is being tested on many fronts," says Quincy Krosby, chief market strategist at Prudential Financial. "With rate uncertainty and implications for tariffs on China pending ... the market may have to deal with increased volatility as it searches for clarity."

Wall Street is also worried about the possibility of a trade war resulting from President Trump's threatened move to levy additional tariffs on trading partners, including China, beyond the import taxes he has already slapped on steel and aluminum. Fears of retaliation from countries around the globe has Wall Street worried, as an all-out trade fight is seen as a negative for both the U.S. and global economy.


2. Inflation--The Federal Reserve kicks off a two-day meeting on interest rates Tuesday. The nation's central bank is widely expected to hike short-term interest rates a quarter of a percentage point.

But what Wall Street fears is if the Fed and its new chairman, Jerome Powell, signal that they now see four rate increases this year, one more than the three signaled in December. That s to counter inflation which is beginning accelerate.

Have fun
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
User avatar
nanningbob
Trader
Posts: 4560
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:23 pm

Economics

Post by nanningbob »

What happens if USA gets in a trade war with China?? Can they retaliate?? You bet they can. Instead of raising taxes to pay for Bush's two wars, Iraq and Afghanistan, we borrowed the money instead. China then became the largest creditor nation for us. They own 6% of our Federal debt. As you know we never pay down our debt so every time their bonds come due we only pay the interest and they reinvest the principal amount back into the treasury bonds (the national debt). So we would have to find investors not only for the Trillion dollars we borrow every year but replace the 6% we owe them. Other nations then could follow suit and not renew their bonds. At that point America is bankrupt because we no longer can pay our bills. Over 30% of the national debt is owed to Social Security. SS doesn't go bankrupt but gets reduced around 25%. We only collect $ .75 of every dollar we spend on SS. Every retired person will have less to spend and that's millions of people who will suddenly be spending less and kaboom end of the economy as we know it.

This not a joke folks. Life as you know it that you whine and complain about will seem like heaven as compared to the financial collapse of Americas economy and financial systems. Those of you who voted for Trump are the ones who will get hurt the most.

Oh and Congress still hasn't passed a budget in three years heading for year 4.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
User avatar
rosst
Trader
Posts: 280
Joined: Wed Feb 27, 2013 1:11 pm
Location: Austin, Texas

Economics

Post by rosst »

:clap: - Your analysis is always great! Thank you for sharing.
Over60
Trader
Posts: 153
Joined: Thu Sep 13, 2012 12:58 pm

Economics

Post by Over60 »

“ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors”

Does it might be the end of retail traders with small accounts or is it simply a fake?

https://www.esma.europa.eu/document/add ... ifferences

Over60
User avatar
nanningbob
Trader
Posts: 4560
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:23 pm

Economics

Post by nanningbob »

i have no idea.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
JonCodesBad
Trader
Posts: 50
Joined: Mon Apr 13, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: SW England.

Economics

Post by JonCodesBad »

Over60 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:53 am wrote:“ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors”

Does it might be the end of retail traders with small accounts or is it simply a fake?

https://www.esma.europa.eu/document/add ... ifferences

Over60
It's sadly no fake as ESMA considers the spot forex market as CFD

The vital questions are: Will GP have to offer the reduced leverage to EU clients?
Does anyone fully understand the 50% per trade margin stop out thingy, and how it may be implemented?
When will this take effect?


Cheers

Jon
User avatar
nanningbob
Trader
Posts: 4560
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:23 pm

Economics

Post by nanningbob »

JonCodesBad » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:21 am wrote:
Over60 » Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:53 am wrote:“ESMA agrees to prohibit binary options and restrict CFDs to protect retail investors”

Does it might be the end of retail traders with small accounts or is it simply a fake?

https://www.esma.europa.eu/document/add ... ifferences

Over60
It's sadly no fake as ESMA considers the spot forex market as CFD

The vital questions are: Will GP have to offer the reduced leverage to EU clients?
Does anyone fully understand the 50% per trade margin stop out thingy, and how it may be implemented?
When will this take effect?


Cheers

Jon
If I understand it properly 50% trade margin stop should mean if you have 100 dollars in your account and your open trades are more than 50 dollars in the hole the broker would then have to close all trades to preserve half of your equity. When I experienced this in my early days brokers would only close trades and keep other trades open until all your funds were gone. It was often referred to as blowing an account. Because of some hard lessons I learned to trade small lots to avoid blowing accounts or causing major damage to my account. Professional traders who trade with millions or billions of dollars, like banks, would never expose themselves to such potential losses but young inexperienced traders often do this. My personal experience has been to close trades when I get to 20% of my account in the hole but I haven’t had to do that in at least 4/5 years. I simply don’t expose my money to that kind of risk. So I would look at this regulation as reasonable.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
User avatar
nanningbob
Trader
Posts: 4560
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2011 1:23 pm

Economics

Post by nanningbob »

Just like 2007 government and personal debt hits a record high. When home values quit going up and people can’t borrow anymore. Boom. This is what happens when you flood the market with cheap money (via tax cuts and increased borrowing) Get out of debt as fast as you can so you can survive this next crash.

Overall, Americans’ debt hit a new high of $13 trillion last year, surpassing the previous record set in 2008 by $280 billion, according to the New York Fed. The old record was 12,720,000,000,000.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
Post Reply

Return to “Macroeconomics and the Forex markets”