Economics

A forum for discussing macroeconomics
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Gertje
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Economics

Post by Gertje »

Interesting reading Bob, thanks for that.
What do you suggest people do with savings?
Collect them and store the cash under the bed?
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pivotter
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Economics

Post by pivotter »

Crash.direction.ALL.JPG
Thanks Bob,

Yes, a good article, its time to considder only to trade in the direction of the crash.
Attached a dashboard with the column W1 FC to show the expected direction when the stockmarkets drops 15 % or more.

29-10
-Image updated to all pairs
-Added SPB Dashboard
-The direction of the next fin crash is manually chosen and a fixed position.
-The semaphor column is work in progress
-The extra columns in the dashboard are not blocking trades at this stage, so only a visual notice for now.
-Added modified W1 Sixths indie (not needed for the dashboard)
-the W1 sixths has the fin crash spikes taken out as they are not part of the normal trading range.


Ben
===
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Last edited by pivotter on Tue Oct 29, 2019 11:09 am, edited 2 times in total.
You think the rumbling comes from our "magic" black-box ?
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nanningbob
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Economics

Post by nanningbob »

Gertje » Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:00 am wrote:Interesting reading Bob, thanks for that.
What do you suggest people do with savings?
Collect them and store the cash under the bed?
I’d have some kind of reserve sitting at home. Im thinking more 2008 stuff like a nasty recession since we’ll print plenty of money. As long as the USA is the world’s currency we have an entire world to soak up the excess just like last time. However if that ever changes then the USA is in deep dodo. Way Trump is angering all of our allies we may not have the big boys come to our aid in crunch time. But I’m not expecting end of the world stuff. But this is more of investors beware time. History often repeats itself but with a new twist each time.

Last time this started in Aug. 2007 and it was over 6 months later when it really hit the fan. The Forex markets 3 months later went nuts. So its an advanced warning if nothing is done. In other words you got a heads up on what might come down.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
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nanningbob
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Economics

Post by nanningbob »

Interesting information. Thanks
pivotter » Mon Oct 28, 2019 6:10 am wrote:Thanks Bob,

Yes, a good article, its time to considder only to trade in the direction of the crash.
Attached a dashboard with the column W1 FC to show the expected direction when the stockmarkets drops 15 % or more.

Ben
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
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ntjs
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Economics

Post by ntjs »

pivotter » Mon Oct 28, 2019 12:10 pm wrote:Thanks Bob,

Yes, a good article, its time to considder only to trade in the direction of the crash.
Attached a dashboard with the column W1 FC to show the expected direction when the stockmarkets drops 15 % or more.

Ben

Hallo Ben,
Can you publish the complete crash.direction.jpg?
Incl. the missing NZDxxx and USDxxx pairs?
Thanks in advance. roel
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MurphyMan
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Economics

Post by MurphyMan »

Thanks for the food for thought, Bob. Interesting that the S&P hit a new high yesterday.

FYI, I found this video from the Wall Street journal that explains the Repo Rate https://www.wsj.com/video/the-repo-mark ... 89DC2.html
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nanningbob
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Economics

Post by nanningbob »

This is the second week in a row that the Fed has had to inject over 100 billion every night into the banking system. This started last September 17 at 35 billion a night and has grown progressively worse since. The last time the Fed did this was August of 2007. It also continued to develop back then until the banking system collapsed less than a year later. The cause is debt as companies and individuals fall further behind in their debt payments. Less cash is coming in causes a nightly cash shortage in the banking system. Obviously with everyone being distracted this is not getting the attention it deserves.

Quote; WSJ
The New York Fed added $111.909 billion to financial markets on Tuesday.
The intervention came in two parts. One was via overnight repurchase agreements totalling $76.943 billion. The other came from a 14-day repo totaling $34.966 billion. Eligible banks sought less liquidity than the Fed was willing to offer.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
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nanningbob
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Post by nanningbob »

Well maybe good news. The 100 billion plus the Fed has been putting into the banking system every night has been cut almost in half to 68 billion. After the last recession safety measures and regulations were passed to help the Fed solve the problem of cash shortages in the banking system. Possibly increased holiday spending will continue to increase cash flows.

Quote:
WSJ 11/15/19
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York added $68.343 billion to financial markets on Friday.
The liquidity came in the form of a repurchase agreement operation that will expire on Monday. The Fed accepted $61.043 billion in Treasurys, $1 billion in agencies and $6.3 billion in mortgage bonds, and took everything eligible banks offered.

In another article its said that corporate debt is a problem. That being behind in payments and higher rate of bankruptcies is contributing to the cash shortage. However there is hope a good Christmas business season will alleviate the cash shortage. We’ll see and stay up with the story.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
lemur6666
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Economics

Post by lemur6666 »

The Federal Reserve is now directly monetizing US federal debt. :arrrg:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-fed ... g-us-debt/
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nanningbob
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Post by nanningbob »

lemur6666 » Sun Nov 17, 2019 2:45 pm wrote:The Federal Reserve is now directly monetizing US federal debt. :arrrg:

https://www.peakprosperity.com/the-fed ... g-us-debt/
We cut govt. income by cutting taxes and now the govt. cant pay its bills. Congress is ordering the Federal Banks to borrow the money instead. Not going to work.
I trade http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3964,
I talk about my philosophy of trading here.
http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =38&t=3627
"The key to converting something useful to others is simplicity. Complexity is the enemy to execution." Tony Robbins
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