The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[rambo06]

If you absorb the thread in full you will understand the areas that MM's normally drive price to (where the 3 pushes end) and the patterns they present when they arrive there (movement at each level).

They present the same patterns with slight variations so the level as a whole will look completely different but if you look closely it's the same. Sometimes they bring one part of a pattern higher or lower to accomplish this and other times they add chop. It all depends..

After a while, you will develop instincts and can trade the patterns at each level (bc you know where price will pause and you know the general patterns to shake traders out), along with the pushes to the next location as CJ was showing with the first pattern of this thread..

Goodluck

Hi Rambo.Thank you for your answer. There are parts in this thread about areas MM drive price to? Can you please explain more about this? I remember CJ talking about common ground, but that's it, it's difficult to predict where Lv3 ends. In my experience, M/W can happen at lv3 or not, it's not reliable. 3 pushes are not reliable, it can be 1,2, or more pushes. The same can be said about the pins bar.

About patterns, I agree that they are the same with some variations. But then, the part that they can bring the price higher or lower is very dangerous and difficult to trade. Go in early? they can bring the price higher/lower to get you into DD trouble. Not go in early? you can miss the opportunity, sometimes in the past, at this point price did move in our favor. Go in early and add entries if the price goes again you? It's great until it backfires when the patterns mutant into one another. Pattern recognition helps me a lot, but it must go along with structure understanding and money management. At the end of the day, when I look back, I can't call this an edge anymore.

Common Ground:
Here is his quote:
“Yes, the yellow line tends to stand out and grab your attention. I mentioned earlier that price is always moving, returning to previous levels and that it is drawn to some areas and levels more frequently than oth- ers. Round numbers, sweet spots, pivots, support & resistance, fibo and gann numbers. Everything we use as tools of the trade as well as some I've missed. Areas that we seek out in our search for profits. Areas to begin and end trades. In other words, all of the areas that both bulls and bears frequent together. We've all heard it, "the bulls and bears are fighting it out here" yada yada... But in reality, it's not the bulls and the bears who control price, it's the fox or the shark or any number of larger predators who are also at- tracted to these "areas of interest" that price seems so drawn to. Remember also that I say price is driven to a point with intent. “

Look at his charts with this in mind. Do you see any of the areas above where he opens and closes trades? Check some of the charts of the other good traders around here as well.

M/W:
Most of the time level 3 has an M/W it’s just muddled by chop or they’ve brought one side slightly higher or lower because they either need more orders or have enough trapped and don’t want to go back to let them out. It helps to abandon the thought that the tips of the M/W will be even every time. When the M/W genuinly isn’t there you’ll either get a triple top or ABC (H&S) instead. If you really can’t see any of them at a turning point, post a chart and if I’m around I will assist.

Pushes:
It’s normally 3 pushes before they start to play games. It does happen where it’s more or less but 3 will get you in the right spot most of the time. It’s fairly likely you are counting the shakeout at the level as part of the pushes if you are consistently seeing 4-5 pushes. You have to filter out the noise when counting. If your only seeing 1-2 pushes most of the time, my guess would be your starting the count from the wrong point for that timeframe. Make sure your count is starting from peak high or low on that tf.

Edge/Patterns:
The real edge comes when you use each of the tools in conjunction. The sum is greater than the parts. Precision comes with confluence. If the 1h and 4h both share the same sentiment and London opens and prints a pattern on the 15m that agrees with that sentiment I would say you’re in a high probability set up out the gate. Then you start factoring in some of the other stuff like pin bars (in the right area), common ground etc. and if they to agree with your sentiment then you’re in a very high probability trade.

When you’ve traded this way for a while you can identify the parts of the pattern in real time (range, extension, stophunt, move) on the 15m as they print during London. You can also identify the parts of the pattern on the higher timeframes like the 1h and 4h. These patterns will be larger but have the same parts (range, extension,stophunt, move) as the 15m. When you get to this stage, you will begin to see how the whole pattern on the 15m will create but a part of the pattern on the higher timeframe. You won't need to be as precise because you “know” which part is printing and what comes next so if they run a leg long you're not afraid to give the trade more leash. Until you're at this stage it's wise to use strict money management.

Money Management:
If your afraid your early and price begins to move against you, don’t stack and don’t be afraid to take a small loss (15-20 pips) and re-enter at a more favorable entry point. If you’re late, size up and catch part of the move. When you’re on time, stack. Use protective stops.

R.

[mminhptit]

Common Ground:
R.

Hi Rambo. Thank you for your answer. Before I reply I have to say that English is not my native language. So I may sound arrogant, disgraceful or rude, I'm sorry if I sound that way. It's not the case, I'm glad that you take time and effort to write long post to help a stranger like me. Best regard.

Now back to the topic. It seems we all agree that level counting is the core of this thread. I have traded this strategy for more than a year. I read all 1500+ pages of this thread. What I wrote before is my conclusion. I read your post carefully and one thing I notice/expect is you and I have different way of level count (you can have Lv3 during London open, my way of counting never have lv3 at that time). It's the normal thing in this thread when people post about level count is subjective, I remember even CJ and Sympathy have different counts.

Because of different counts, the way you see components of this strategy like M/W, RRT, pattern, 3 pushes can be different experience. I'll post a chart to express more about my view below. It's a current H4 GU chart.

Right now I'm looking for, the final piece for my trading. Level count gives me direction, I want to have a better accuracy entry: where price turns in our favor. From my poor experience till now, M/W, RRT, 3 pushes are not reliable.

[rambo06]

Common Ground:
R.

Hi Rambo. Thank you for your answer. Before I reply I have to say that English is not my native language. So I may sound arrogant, disgraceful or rude, I'm sorry if I sound that way. It's not the case, I'm glad that you take time and effort to write long post to help a stranger like me. Best regard.

Now back to the topic. It seems we all agree that level counting is the core of this thread. I have traded this strategy for more than a year. I read all 1500+ pages of this thread. What I wrote before is my conclusion. I read your post carefully and one thing I notice/expect is you and I have different way of level count (you can have Lv3 during London open, my way of counting never have lv3 at that time). It's the normal thing in this thread when people post about level count is subjective, I remember even CJ and Sympathy have different counts.

Because of different counts, the way you see components of this strategy like M/W, RRT, pattern, 3 pushes can be different experience. I'll post a chart to express more about my view below. It's a current H4 GU chart.

Right now I'm looking for, the final piece for my trading. Level count gives me direction, I want to have a better accuracy entry: where price turns in our favor. From my poor experience till now, M/W, RRT, 3 pushes are not reliable.

Your English is really good. No offense at all.

They had different counts at times but recall one very important quote CJ wrote afterwards:

“I would count my levels a bit different here, but we start and end at the same place... which is important, no matter how we get there.”


And also from the same comment:

“You have to account for the extensions, spread patterns and the distortion that they use to try and hide these simple steps... learn to filter them out and look for the basics.”

I've attached a basic chart of what I see at first glance. I tried to color code it as best I can and there’s about 10 more m’s and w’s to be drawn if you really want to clutter it but hope this helps. I wish you the best in your search for what your looking for.

R.

[rewand]

Tks Rewand. I look into your website and it seems I have a different view. I have no doubt that you are a great trader but I will continue with what working for me now.

Its ok to have different views. However, one can still take an idea and play with it. Something unexpected may be the result.

M/W = Any topping formation. Horizontal or skewed by an angle.

Level count. There are no levels, only activities. Count the sequence of observed activities, not levels.

Kicking these ideas around till one sees results may take many months. These are only 2 aspects of price movements out of the many to consider while price keeps moving.

A.

[mminhptit]

Your English is really good. No offense at all.

R.

Thank you Rambo I'll look into this

[mminhptit]

Its ok to have different views. However, one can still take an idea and play with it. Something unexpected may be the result.

M/W = Any topping formation. Horizontal or skewed by an angle.

Level count. There are no levels, only activities. Count the sequence of observed activities, not levels.

Kicking these ideas around till one aees results may take many months. These are only 2 aspects of price movements out of the many to consider while price keeps moving.

A.

Thank you Rewand. I'll look into this

[szfxtrader]

GBPCHF Long@1.15640

[blazej]

Consider only three levels for taking trades. Previous day high, previous day low, previous day close (the lines that's draw attention). Wait for them to show their hand, no need to get early, get trading when You are sure what will happen. Wait until previous day borders are broken as this entices other timer frame traders and moves tend to be greater.

Price goes up, down or sideways, has only 3 options, seems obvious but people do not understand how powerful this simple concept is. (Simple example: consider price going up for three day, now in consolidation, doing lower lows on Friday before US session start. Who is most likely to get fuck*d?)

Trade only when trading session begin as bank traders tend to do their job and do nothing for the rest of the day. Only when pattern shows up. Not price movement.

This is what I learned. And the hard truth is that You need to make it on Your own. I can post my strategy here and people will not earn monet using it, as it is mine. You have to develop one that suits You.

[szfxtrader]

NAS100 Short@20375.10

[szfxtrader]

NZDJPY Short@95.130