HGI

[DigitalCrypto]

Not sure how it's going for others, but I've had 5 losses in succession since I started trading on Tuesday without any hint of profit appearing on the table. Was this still to early to start trading again? Entering on H4 big arrows and blue wavies.

I'm not sure what the trades were. I can't speak to why you are getting the wrong signals or you are losing. I did send you a PM that may be able to help you out.

[silentshadow]

This is my first post on SH. English is not my first language so please bear with me if you find any mistakes. Spudan, I have started trading/testing this system on H4 and till date it has yielded some good results. Entries on big arrows and sometimes scale-in if trend is favoring us. Exit(s) would be if I come across any reversal signals. Yes this requires lot of screen-time but I am going to take @SteveHopwood advice and try MTPM. Running the trading systems on Linux box has its own set of challenges and I am going to overcome it slowly and steadily.

Spudan, mate please be cautious while taking trades if there is any impending news. For example yesterday EUR/USD spiked post ECB minutes. System gave a buy signal but I didn't enter as there are chances I may end up taking a long position at the extremities and get burnt.

I am focusing on how and where do I keep the Sl(s) so that we can maximize the profits - need to find a way to reduce the screen time. EA is an option. Any other bright ideas do drop a PM, don't want to get reprimanded by Steve

Thanks to everyone who put together this wonderful system. And many a thanks to Steve for having this forum.

Not sure how it's going for others, but I've had 5 losses in succession since I started trading on Tuesday without any hint of profit appearing on the table. Was this still to early to start trading again? Entering on H4 big arrows and blue wavies.

[senzhi]

SL and Steve might not go well. I don't use them either, focus is the key. And that means screen time in between candles. Hey, we got the weekends to rest (at least from forex).

Spot on about yesterday's EU buy signal being in extremities. With or without news, the risk would have been a tad too high. Not worth it.

[SteveHopwood]

SL and Steve might not go well.

Yep. Haven't set them for years. They are a mugs' game. All they do is get hit.

Follow Bob's mantra instead: trade so you can trade another day. In other words, trade today so you can still trade tomorrow when today goes tits up.

Trade lot sizes so tiny that even a stupidly adverse spike against you (and they will happen) cannot wipe out your account. Take lots of tiny profits often. Here is the equation:
(tiny profits * lots of taking them) = wealth and riches.

Then there is my mantra:

• If it can happen and it is bad for you, then it will happen - and probably sooner rather than later. It will happen when you have been just plain lucky and increased your trading lot sizes through a ludicrously misplaced over confidence.
• NEVER trade with funds you cannot afford to lose i.e.:
  • the house
  • the pension fund.
  • your contingency fund.

Not caring about your funds and not being able to lose them are not the same thingy. Just save up for a deposit before opening a live trading account, OK? Then you will understand the difference.

It just seems like an apposite time to replay the mantras.

[Spudfan]

SL and Steve might not go well.

Yep. Haven't set them for years. They are a mugs' game. All they do is get hit.

I've been burned by not using stops and then having bad trades go feral, building up negative swap over months, even years and also soaking up available equity, eventually leading to margin calls. I've been there and hate it. Steve, if you don't use stops, what is your strategy for avoiding the pitfalls I've mentioned?

Trading tiny lot sizes is good advice, of course, but I don't think it goes far enough to address the above pitfalls because if enough small bad trades build up the result is inevitable. My concern is not the size of the losses but the consistency - in the 4 days I've been trading HGI this week I've had 8 losses and no wins. Perhaps this is normal, but I didn't expect this from a system that people rave about. I'm pretty sure I'm not making stupid errors, I'm careful not to trade into S/R and I trade only with the daily trend, so I'm just not sure what to make of it.

David sent me some ideas about filtering potential bad trades using two MAs, position of price in relation to MAs and the direction of the weekly bar - haven't had time to explore this, but it makes sense. But on the other hand, I've seen comments that the HGI is not broken and we shouldn't try to fix it.

I'd love to find out from those more experienced with HGI what you think?

Thanks
Alistair

[Mrktrd]

Hello,

this is my first post here, and maybe last, 9 loss in a row are NOTHING, for testing a system, if it's solid, LONG TERM, the most important thing to understand it's that every system or ea long term loss...no way about this.

I've a simply method to understand if a system or ea works long terms....

Deposit 1000 $ or euro, demo or real, and divide it into 100 trades.

If a broker don't respect your sl (if you use a sl)...change broker...shit happen sometimes (chf/gbp/nzd).

This is forex.

If don't like it, where is the problem?

Change hobby (for me forex is a hobby, cause with forex i cannot pay my bill after 6 years of study).

Sorry for my english, hope someone understand me

[Wavegarrick]

Hi Alistair,

I've been burned by not using stops and then having bad trades go feral, building up negative swap over months, even years and also soaking up available equity, eventually leading to margin calls. I've been there and hate it. Steve, if you don't use stops, what is your strategy for avoiding the pitfalls I've mentioned?

Trading tiny lot sizes is good advice, of course, but I don't think it goes far enough to address the above pitfalls because if enough small bad trades build up the result is inevitable. My concern is not the size of the losses but the consistency - in the 4 days I've been trading HGI this week I've had 8 losses and no wins. Perhaps this is normal, but I didn't expect this from a system that people rave about. I'm pretty sure I'm not making stupid errors, I'm careful not to trade into S/R and I trade only with the daily trend, so I'm just not sure what to make of it.

David sent me some ideas about filtering potential bad trades using two MAs, position of price in relation to MAs and the direction of the weekly bar - haven't had time to explore this, but it makes sense. But on the other hand, I've seen comments that the HGI is not broken and we shouldn't try to fix it.

I'd love to find out from those more experienced with HGI what you think?

Thanks
Alistair

Spudfan

I just want to give a quick rundown as to how I trade Hgi:

- Trade only daily and 4 Hourly. I do use the hourly timeframe to look for confirmation of the daily or 4 hourly trend signal.
- I trade the first trend signal signal after the 60 and 240 lwma set to open crosses. 4 hourly or daily. Trying to get into a trade long after the Moving average cross is looking for trouble. You must wait for the cross in the opposite direction and then look for the first Hgi trend signal in the direction of the moving average cross. You wait for these trades but that is what patient traders do. See attached chart.
- More recently sixths has come to the fore and from the attached chart you can see that we take the Hgi opposite trend signals in the 6ths area only. My sixths are set to 4 hours with a 1682 candle look back. Really speaking for me to get a proper reversal signal on Eurusd I need a daily hgi sell trend signal and also in the sixths area.
- Another confirmation tool I use is my yearly pivot and as you can see from my chart is that a proper reversal occured at yearly support 1 and that with a daily buy trend signal was a solid confirmation. On the 4 hour chart monthly pivots with res, sup area are good confirmation signals with hgi 4hr trend signals
- More recently someone posted a link to knoxville divergence indicator which I obtained and from the chart you can see that Hgi trend signals in the opposite direction are solid when these divergences occur.
- Another thing I find useful is for the 60 Lwma to get close to the sixths area before taking a Hgi opposite trend signal. If the 60 Lwma is still sitting way below or above the sixths area it means that a period of consolidation will occur or a higher move above or below the sixths area. The market seams to respect this.

All in all using Hgi trend signals as stand alone entries only is using only part of the recipe. You need to know where you stand in relation to moving averages, sixths, pivots and so forth. You are bound to go wrong especialy at the beginning of moves or towards the end of trend moves and you might spoil the broth.

Hope this helps and shout if you need clarity.

Cheers
Leon

EURUSDDaily 130118.png

[SteveHopwood]

Read, mark and inwardly digest Leon's post if you are new to all this - or even an old failure at all this. His is brilliant chart analysis backed up by a lot of understanding and knowledge.

[Wavegarrick]

Many thanks Steve,

Anyway guys just something I am exploring as touched on in the previous post. Here you ignore Moving averages, and sixths.

Thanks to eRikb81 who originally posted this method in the following thread http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 17#p158414

You can basically trade any time frame. You need the knoxville divergence indicator. I trade the range wavy, trend wavy and trend arrow with the divergence signal given. These divergence are non repainting and given as is. It even gives you a message that a divergence has occured.

Anyway the chart is self explanatory. Do not trade this live. I am still forward testing this.

Cheers
Leon

EURUSDH1 140118.png

[qvintus]

Hi Alistair,

I just want to give a quick rundown as to how I trade Hgi:

- Trade only daily and 4 Hourly. I do use the hourly timeframe to look for confirmation of the daily or 4 hourly trend signal.
- I trade the first trend signal signal after the 60 and 240 lwma set to open crosses. 4 hourly or daily. Trying to get into a trade long after the Moving average cross is looking for trouble. You must wait for the cross in the opposite direction and then look for the first Hgi trend signal in the direction of the moving average cross. You wait for these trades but that is what patient traders do. See attached chart.
- More recently sixths has come to the fore and from the attached chart you can see that we take the Hgi opposite trend signals in the 6ths area only. My sixths are set to 4 hours with a 1682 candle look back. Really speaking for me to get a proper reversal signal on Eurusd I need a daily hgi sell trend signal and also in the sixths area.
- Another confirmation tool I use is my yearly pivot and as you can see from my chart is that a proper reversal occured at yearly support 1 and that with a daily buy trend signal was a solid confirmation. On the 4 hour chart monthly pivots with res, sup area are good confirmation signals with hgi 4hr trend signals
- More recently someone posted a link to knoxville divergence indicator which I obtained and from the chart you can see that Hgi trend signals in the opposite direction are solid when these divergences occur.
- Another thing I find useful is for the 60 Lwma to get close to the sixths area before taking a Hgi opposite trend signal. If the 60 Lwma is still sitting way below or above the sixths area it means that a period of consolidation will occur or a higher move above or below the sixths area. The market seams to respect this.

All in all using Hgi trend signals as stand alone entries only is using only part of the recipe. You need to know where you stand in relation to moving averages, sixths, pivots and so forth. You are bound to go wrong especialy at the beginning of moves or towards the end of trend moves and you might spoil the broth.

Hope this helps and shout if you need clarity.

Cheers
Leon

Hi Leon, interesting approach with the 60 and 240 lwma cross. I asume that the lookback for the MA cross is not so many candles? On your picture of EU D1 it was a big HGI arrow 10 daily candles after the MA crossed.