Ramblings of a Mad Man

[Reaper]

I decided to create a thread of my own journey across the sea. I don't think I'll be using this thread as a proper journal, but more so as somewhere I can jot down ideas, as sometimes my mind goes in a thousand directions at once.

I had one great week using Capt'n Jack's principles to get me some pippage. I think I made like 600+ pips, which is crazy! I have never had a profitable week before, I think the most I have had is two consecutive days which was probably luck. Everything seemed to click and make sense - Thank you Jack!

Now this week is over and it was quite bad. Yes I know it was end of quarter...but I think my main issue was I overthink the concepts too much and it is quite easy to get tunnel vision on one idea and forget the bigger picture.

Another issue, is I know now about levels, stop hunts, pin bars, patterns, trapping volumes, widening spreads, asian/ny ranges, times to trade and not trade...but its quite easy to have all that information overwhelm you. I need to absorb it properly into my mind so much so, that in the heat of the trading moment it is second nature to me.

I guess practice, practice, practice is the answer.

For actual answers regarding Captain Jack's principles, please see his thread. My thoughts are just my own reiteration of his teachings..

[Reaper]

So what is the most important thing that I need to practice the hell out of...In my opinion, (and this is my thread so anything I post is only my opinion and you're welcome to share yours), is to be able to identify what stage of the cycle the pair is currently at. For example are we at the first, second or third level? If we can determine this, I think we have won half the battle.

I'm using the hourly timeframe mostly and the ideal setup should be 3 days of rising/falling price before a reversal however the fox doesnt make it that easy for us.

When we place a trade, the fox takes the counter trade. So if we're at level 2/day 2 and its clear to quite alot of retail traders that price is generally rising and they're right. The fox might induce at least one range day. He wants people to second guess themselves, he will do many stop hunts and will probably mess people with open positions about all day.

By doing so he is accumalting positions to make it worth his while to make price rise. So when will this range day(s) finish? When he has accumulated enough contracts, or when price retouches the trend lead in line.

So this might mean that a 3 day cycle could turn into 4+ days. The fox is very sneaky.

[Reaper]

GBPUSD Hourly. Almost a 3 level fall and and 3 level rise in one week. The bank holiday together with the 1.52 round number, gave us a range day on Friday. There has also been prior pin bar touches of this level in the past. The fox created this support/resistance zone in the past to use for last friday's accumulation process.

[Reaper]

Start of new cycle on EURCAD come Monday? May touch the previous low before continuing upwords. creating a big W pattern.

[SteveHopwood]

Please do not take this post as a criticism, because I respect your opinion and changed your name colour long before I had even worked out what a rail road track is.

It seems to me that CJ is trying to teach us to follow the trail of the fox and not try to anticipate it.

Are you not trying to anticipate it here and so confusing the issue for yourself?

[Reaper]

Please do not take this post as a criticism, because I respect your opinion and changed your name colour long before I had even worked out what a rail road track is.

It seems to me that CJ is trying to teach us to follow the trail of the fox and not try to anticipate it.

Are you not trying to anticipate it here and so confusing the issue for yourself?

The fox tends to move price in 3 levels and then there is a high probability of reversal. Knowing this piece of information is very powerful. You could be on level 2 and then there will be a very high probability of a final 3rd move.

Catching an RRT is excellent as you might have just found the start of a 3 level move and this is the best place to be. If the RRT is at a peak, then we should be on the lookout for stop hunts to the long side to create you an M formation. Once you have it, you have a pattern to short.

That pattern, stop hunts, trapping volume, increase spreads, large pins are all the trail. Understanding the whole 3 level principle is very important. Having a plan of what price will do is not a bad thing as long as you're flexible.

Also if a pattern if forming up on the larger TF H4, D1. When you goto the lower timeframes you should know the general direction. Take the below example of USDCHF on the Daily/Hourly. Why do I think the general direction is down? Can you see the larger M on the higher timeframe?

Now I could be completely wrong here, but there is no harm in being prepared should it play out like this.

[Reaper]

So I correctly predicted GBPUSD would rise, EURUSD would rise, EURCAD would rise, and USDCHF would fall. Yet did I make some awesome pipage? No! I did exactly what the fox wanted me to do - kept second guessing myself.

I'm going to try and place a few set and forget trades. Hopefully then I wont be tempted to mess around with them.

[Reaper]

Tomorrow's bias - GBPUSD falls, EURUSD rises, USDCHF falls, EURCAD rises. Hopefully I can stick to my convictions should the patterns presents like this. Im out in the afternoon, that will help me set up a few set and forget trades, I'll aim for 50 pips each.

[The_Snowman]

Maybe a misprint, maybe I read it wrong, but I cannot see where you get any long bias for EUR-CAD ?

Sure they had 3 green days during slow holidays period but now main trend has resumed, still 9 hours left in the day I suppose

[Reaper]

Yeah that was an interesting one I was a expecting 3 days of higher prices, the second green day didnt go above the pin of the first so I discounted it. I should checked GBPCAD for confirmation as it definately did have 3 up days.