The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[seanyd]

The rabbit hole is deeper than you could imagine....but what lurks there is not a rabbit...

Most people have trouble with some of what I consider some of the "simpler concepts" of my theories. It is for this reason, that I feel they don't "really believe" the market is as I say it is and that they are playing from a stacked deck. They cannot "see" because they cannot believe.

Forecasting price? I've explained it to many before.... one or two's vision "began" to clear but about that time, they lost what they found, deep back down the "rabbit hole"....

To get into the "mapping" of price, I rely of my beliefs of what the forex market is, how it's traded, that price it's not "random", that news it not news to everybody, and that price is driven by more than supply and demand, fundamentals or anything other than greed. ...

Consider the data that the candles on your screen hold. From the smallest to the largest, they are comprised of price ticks... the tick chart is where it all begins....

Have you ever looked at that little "tick chart" window on Empty4? Ever wonder why they made it so small and limited? Do you understand the scaling changes on it as it does the larger charts but not in the same way or for the same reasons? Something to watch on a slow day or night....that's for sure as you just might "see" something familiar there....

CJ

Thanks very much for your insight , I am studying the tick chart now as I write
I can see the patterns over and over but do not understand the scaling changes will continue ,
Thanks again

[Captain Jack]

Thank you very much for your welcome. Limit orders are a part of the game and I think someone has to understand what role they play to understand the whole game or in other words the mechanics of the market. I would like to add/discuss some things which may not fit fully CJ's method. Therefore I would prefer to open a new thread.

Steve has created a sub forum under this one where you may post anything that you feel may add to what is contained within the thread. It was created so that anybody can add anything to what I have posted, without bringing indicators or other things into the main thread. It's located here:

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... m.php?f=60

Welcome aboard and looking forward to your input.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

hi guys really enjoying this ride. i have been looking for something like this for a long time and my hat goes off to the captain. i have been mostly studding and observing this exciting forum quietly putting the pieces together and i must say i always like to know the reason why things happen compared to just seeing it happen. i have been somewhat successful with indicators but after being expose to the truth who would want to return. Each person should do what is comfortable and profitable for them i guess. but for me i have found the answer that i have been searching for for years LIBERATION FEELS GOOD, THANKS CAPTAIN.

quick question. from what point do you calculate the ADR to exit( from second leg of w, m)

I'm not sure I fully understand your question, but if you are trading on the 15M, then you use the high or low of the day. If it's on the D1, then you use the high or low of the week to calculate 3xADR for a 3 level rise or fall. It's always from the high or low of the day or week.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

If inapropriate, please delete. Since the BARF thread at FXAW is more or less dead, I post here: would you look at actual EURGBP as a BARF?
If yes at Point B (H4) or already on the run (H1).
Are we at leg 1 or 2 of a W?
Would you wait to enter or should I be already in a Long trade? I am waiting for the Fox-hunt, which I miss by now.
Or the opposite: what would make you think we are ahead of another level down?
Interested in your thoughts, thanks Mike

Not enough time to get into why it's not a BARF.....read this as to the requirements:

http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php? ... un_reversa

Looks more like a level 2 down....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

The rabbit hole is deeper than you could imagine....but what lurks there is not a rabbit...

Most people have trouble with some of what I consider some of the "simpler concepts" of my theories. It is for this reason, that I feel they don't "really believe" the market is as I say it is and that they are playing from a stacked deck. They cannot "see" because they cannot believe.

Forecasting price? I've explained it to many before.... one or two's vision "began" to clear but about that time, they lost what they found, deep back down the "rabbit hole"....

To get into the "mapping" of price, I rely of my beliefs of what the forex market is, how it's traded, that price it's not "random", that news it not news to everybody, and that price is driven by more than supply and demand, fundamentals or anything other than greed. ...

Consider the data that the candles on your screen hold. From the smallest to the largest, they are comprised of price ticks... the tick chart is where it all begins....

Have you ever looked at that little "tick chart" window on Empty4? Ever wonder why they made it so small and limited? Do you understand the scaling changes on it as it does the larger charts but not in the same way or for the same reasons? Something to watch on a slow day or night....that's for sure as you just might "see" something familiar there....

CJ

Thanks very much for your insight , I am studying the tick chart now as I write
I can see the patterns over and over but do not understand the scaling changes will continue ,
Thanks again

Watch the tick chart during a slow period..... between NY close and Asian open or when the markets open on Sunday/Monday....

During a slow period, the chart is not as detailed and has fewer ticks....creating a large pattern, but it is less detailed. When there is high liquidity, during NY or London, the tick chart is very detailed, but the scaling changes to show you less of the pattern, but it is more detailed...

It's like looking at a D1 chart when the tick volume is slow.....and a M1 chart when the volume is heavy.....

Low tick volume - big picture, less detail...

High tick volume - small picture, more detail....like zooming in on the big picture....

Find a pattern on the tick chart and you will find it across all time frames at different points in time....they will present themselves on the M1 first and work their way to the largest time frames....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

It appears to be....

CJ

I think it might make more sense that the white lines are the 4H cycle and the pink are the 1H cycle (3 days of rising price). What you reckon?

Cheers

Yes...you are getting the hang of it.... the 15M is just the larger moves broken down to be traded over a shorter period.

Since the patterns repeat, if there are 3 pushes on the 15M, then there will be 3 on the 30M, 3 on the 1H, 3 on the 4H and so on.... it can not be otherwise since it's the lower candle that form the higher candles....

CJ

[Captain Jack]

Hello everybody,
that's my first post in this wonderful thread. I found and joined this forum by accident. I'm a PA and S&D trader since along time and never thought to find such a nice thread about market structure in an indicator based forum. I'm always surching for methodologies that explain why price is moving. I learned some nice things but I wonder why CJ excluded one important type of liquidity: Limit orders. I don't want to bring flaws to this thread because I guess CJ considers the method as complete. But when somebody is interessted we could discuss it in a new thread.

I touched on limit orders as a way to scale into the trades....using a script to place multiple orders inline with expected price direction when a trade setup is found....many examples are posted.

CJ

[Captain Jack]

CJ

Thanks very much for your insight , I am studying the tick chart now as I write
I can see the patterns over and over but do not understand the scaling changes will continue ,
Thanks again

BTW, take a few screenshots of the tick chart window and in slow times, look through the different time frames on the pair you took it from....

CJ

[Reaper]

CJ

Thanks very much for your insight , I am studying the tick chart now as I write
I can see the patterns over and over but do not understand the scaling changes will continue ,
Thanks again

BTW, take a few screenshots of the tick chart window and in slow times, look through the different time frames on the pair you took it from....

CJ

Is there a finite number of patterns and potentially you could become familar with them all? Or is that a stretch?

[Reaper]

It appears to be....

CJ

I think it might make more sense that the white lines are the 4H cycle and the pink are the 1H cycle (3 days of rising price). What you reckon?

Cheers

Yes...you are getting the hang of it.... the 15M is just the larger moves broken down to be traded over a shorter period.

Since the patterns repeat, if there are 3 pushes on the 15M, then there will be 3 on the 30M, 3 on the 1H, 3 on the 4H and so on.... it can not be otherwise since it's the lower candle that form the higher candles....

CJ

So the best thing i.e. less riskiest thing is to trade in the direction of the larger cycle. So if you know a fresh 4H cycle is starting upwards, you can either try and ride the whole cycle which would include some range/retrace days or try and find the 1H cycle (usually 3 day) cycle within the whole move. Level 2 is the longest and this could be spread over 3 days.. I'm I on track or going off another tangent? lol