The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Captain Jack]

My first week as student of fox hunting tricks. 5% up in manual. But what keeps more excited is intraday insights about stop huntings and the real fox intents. Mastering the fox intents gives also an awsome edge to run robots and EAs, choosing the right EA at the exact time. Of course, this is out of topic here, but yesterday I had a modest insight about that and it worked great. Too soon to know if it was by chance or if there is a reliable basis behind. Anyway, thanks to CJ and all the folks here for sharing so valuable thoughts.

I'm glad that your 1st week has gone well and that you are showing some positive numbers. I hope your incorporation of EA's works well for you. I for one will use no EA's.

On a side note, you stated in Bob's thread that it is your opinion that the methods put forth will work in a ranging market but when price trends, those who follow these methods will be left behind. I disagree strongly with your opinion. I bring it up here so as not to clutter Bob's thread with a discussion about it.

Perhaps you should read this entire thread if you have not done so because these methods are not limited to ranging markets and do work very well in trending markets. While segments of this thread cover areas where price reverses, it also details the and patterns of trending price. While many examples are on the 15m time frame, these principles apply directly to the higher time frames as well.

Bob has a good system as I have stated before and it works better during trends for one reason, it is based on a higher time frame. During ranging markets, price swings quickly and those who trade the higher time frames see less profit or losses because they do not adapt to the market.

When price is in a strong trend, the methods put forth here work well on higher time frames, keeping you in trades for longer periods and providing larger profits. When markets range, these principles work well on the lower time frames, getting you in and out of trades sooner. It is only those traders who are "stuck" in one time frame or mindset, or who can not adapt to what they see in front of them, who fail to make profitable trades. These concepts do work across all market conditions.

Bob's system is like any other system or EA in that it works well when the conditions of the indicators are met. When those conditions no longer exist, the system will be less favorable to the trader.

Too many people read this thread but fail to understand what is being said and try to trade it like an EA or system. They will fail and drift away, not because the concepts are unsound, but because their application of those concepts have been poorly done. Like most unsuccessful traders, they will look to place failure on the "system" instead of where it really lies, with the the trader himself.

Best wishes and good trading

CJ

[FlyHighDrifter]

Here's my beginners fox hunter statement for today.

The theory is one thing, but when you're in the driving seat actually trading it's easy to get lost. To be honest, I'm not sure I got this right at all, even though the results are good with a 7% return today, I got really tied up hedging positions then trying to get back out of. It's seems waiting for things like the good old confirmation candle just doesn't work, my first trade was a short on NZDUSD after a candle close, then of course it went back up to pin highs and kept me in DD for hours. Every other trade I tried to get right in the top (or bottom of pins) sometimes market order, sometimes a limit order. Have you ever noticed how hard it is to place a market order right at the edge? e.g. previous pin high, then later bullish candle and you have to play it short, just goes against my pre-conditioned mind but I know it works, because that's what I did today. So the strategy that seems to work for me so far is get it right at the top or bottom of the pins, then hope it doesn't keep going but returns back down (up) again. At the end of the day, you just don't know what price is going to do in each individual case, that's why it's not about one trade but the edge the technique will give you. So that was the easy bit, the difficult thing that really messed with my head today was what to do when price moves past the pin high/low and you get into drawdown. I tried a couple of things when this happened. One was a stop loss - didn't like that one much because I got taken out a couple of times, only for price to go back in my favour, I also tried keeping the first trade open, then adding a second same direction when the first was already is DD. e.g. first trade goes 20 pips DD, price seems to hang, so open another trade same direction - again this goes against my preconditioned mind, but seemed to work pretty good, some instances repeated the process three or even four times. The third option when initial trade goes into DD was to open a hedge trade, this worked okay also, but complicate things a whole lot. So I think this is a key part of the strategy, what to do when the first trade goes into DD, I know xrismak carried the USDCHF for weeks and eventually it came good. I guess I'll try all this again Monday and see what works best for me. It may still be easiest just to close the trade and open another at the new level - any ideas?

Have a great weekend everyone

Pips400

Fox Hunting 1 26 July 2013.JPG

Fox Hunting 2 26 July 2013.JPG

Fox Hunting 3 26 July 2013.JPG

May I suggest you cut the amount of trading pairs down whilst you are learning. I believe the whole essence of this is to become so familiar with the setups that when you see a good one you hammer it - you seem to have about 10 pairs on the go and if you are honest with yourself did all of them tick all the boxes for the way you want to naked trade?. That's not a criticism but when you see CJ and xrismaks results they tend only to be on a few pairs. That's the way I play it and it is much easier.

I would also strongly advise against your option two of adding to losing positions - it might work a few times but honestly it will be a fast road to a margin call or a serious fox bite. I occasionally stick a hedge in as a get out of jail card if I make a mistake and a trade goes AWOL but really if you cut losers early there should be no need for one.

Also by managing fewer trades whilst learning you will be more in touch with each chart. 'End the losers early', and 'scale in on winners', how many times have we all heard or read this but honestly it is the key. You WILL get wrong trades, take it on the chin knowing full well that when you get one right you will more than make up for many loses. The best move I made on my journey of naked trading was to reduce the amount I was trading - limiting myself initially to even just one trade a day - this forced me to wait for what I thought was the best setup. After a week of this I'd allow myself maybe three trades a day... and I built up from there. Since trying this my accuracy has increased massively. I'm still taking it slowly though and I'm not even scaling in yet - nevertheless I've still managed a steady 10% per week return throughout July. If I can keep this accuracy up, when I do start to scale in the potential profits excite the hell out of me!

Everything you described in your post sounds like a step/thought I had in the earlier days, all part of the learning I guess. Keep at it! CJ's teachings are SO good that once you've mastered the basics it will be your human instincts that hold you back from big wins... I'm trading the best I ever have under these methods and yet I have never felt like more of a novice - the setups and wins are continual and it puts the spot light firmly on your own personality as to whether you succeed or not!

Oh and one more thought that has helped me in my transition to naked trading, I can't remember where I got this from:

Most traders hang on to losing trades hoping that they will turn good, and they fear losing profits so end good trades early.
Succesful traders fear that a losing trade might get worse, and they hope that a winner will get better!

Hope my ramble helps in someway,

Fly

[zentauro67]

Dear CJ,

thanks for your words. I have much work still to do reading the whole thread and the pdf on BARF. Maybe I rushed to talk about trends and ranges before understanding in depth the fox. I´ll devote the weekend to study the cunning creature.

Good weekend to everyone.

[pips400]

Thanks Fly, some good points to think over. It's great you've got this working for you, I'm open to all suggestions. I hear you on managing losses also, I thinking you're right, going into next week, I'm going to cut loosers quick and look to build upon those that are runners. I've learnt massively this week, and I am eager to carry on Monday, but not before some serious down time. Work Hard Play Hard.

[banteka]

GAP in EUR/USD

[McNish]

Bantek, i think you're trying to trade too much since your initial success with NT. Somehow i get this feel.
keep cool and you will do well, unless you're not 95% sure, pass up the trade.
Do so and in two weeks you'll be scaling in the best trades.

Anyway, how about UJ long anyone? I scaled in another one today. Pin at bottom in H4 into consolidation area of before. Pic below.

As for the Striptease Act, i've done fine for my self as an NB.
very minor losses, couple breakevens, good green trades with couple of scalings too.
Hope to get better with practice. Only on pg 15 of the thread since started but covering current posts and practicing as well.
Really looking to making the line studies stick.
Wish to learn Scale-to-Margin-Call act, that would be Full Monty.

Cheers,

[kwanann]

Max,

Why are you long UJ?

[kwanann]

Yeah, I was already out from GBP with 5 pips green. There will be US news in minutes.
I had shorts at the AUD and NZD pins too, but they were a little high and didn't trigger, I prefer this rather than buying their shit where they want me too.

I closed an old sell loss on GBPJPY yesterday at the lowest, just to see it today going further down my BE level, so that loss would be now in profit. Oh well, the fox outsmarts me by far...

Have a nice weekend you all!

What news? The only one I see is in 45 min

Sorry, I meant the last US consumer sentiment news, it was at the same time I wrote here...

The JPY pairs are still moving down this afternoon, but I am not sure if they will give one more push, or start turning up to rip some buys...

Ahh ok, that explains the spike! Should have TP then and ended the week, ended up missing that TP point and letting the trade drag. Closed it just before market close for some slight profits. As expected, price went high, then low, closed right in the middle, locking everyone over the weekend.

Enjoy your weekend guys!

[Ingot54]

I think the F12 key is going to be my best friend over this weekend. Going to go through 10 months bar by bar on the H1 on multiple charts. I'm planning on marking the far right bar of the screen where I see levels, W/M's and pushes starting as well as the pin bars on those larger formations. Then move the chart bar by bar to examine whether I was correct.

I suggest anyone trying to learn do something similar. I did a few hours last night and already cleared up a lot of confusion for myself. Even saw some trading improvement and hit some big moves at the very beginning.

Hi Ciliano

You look like having busy weekend ... like me

There is a really easy to use Strategy Tester here: (if it is of any help)

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 843#p43843

That would make the job much easier. You can let it run ... stop it ... start again ... and see exactly where you "should" enter/exit. One problem - if you stop it, it reloads and restarts from the beginning. I am looking for the work-around for this ... a "pause" feature would be nice, and I am unsure if there is one.

EDIT: If you move the "Visual Mode" slider back to "1" then it will effectively stop the candles being formed. Slide it back up towards "31" to reach maximum usable speed. Any higher than 31, and it enters hyper speed, and is less useful for a bar-by-bar viewing.

Just pick on any pair - any TF - and try it. Write down your trades, and go back over the same period, but use a different TF ... and see if it improves your figures.

It is one way to discover the TF that resonates best with you ... and you get "hands-on" experience trading it at the same time. It works while the market is closed, but you can not actually place orders to test as far as I know. I am no expert on this at all, and am going to find out what other little goodies it can deliver as a Sim/Strategy Tester.

There are other Strategy testers available - some you pay for ... some are free (Google knows where they are) ...

It is not my intention to divert discussion towards Strategy testers. But some may find them useful to grab a bit of active screen time while the markets are closed, especially those whose working hours limit their participation in live action.

There are also 10 pages of reading here, on a free tester called VHands:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849

[banteka]

I think the F12 key is going to be my best friend over this weekend. Going to go through 10 months bar by bar on the H1 on multiple charts. I'm planning on marking the far right bar of the screen where I see levels, W/M's and pushes starting as well as the pin bars on those larger formations. Then move the chart bar by bar to examine whether I was correct.

I suggest anyone trying to learn do something similar. I did a few hours last night and already cleared up a lot of confusion for myself. Even saw some trading improvement and hit some big moves at the very beginning.

Hi Ciliano

You look like having busy weekend ... like me

There is a really easy to use Strategy Tester here: (if it is of any help)

http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 843#p43843

That would make the job much easier. You can let it run ... stop it ... start again ... and see exactly where you "should" enter/exit. One problem - if you stop it, it reloads and restarts from the beginning. I am looking for the work-around for this ... a "pause" feature would be nice, and I am unsure if there is one.

EDIT: If you move the "Visual Mode" slider back to "1" then it will effectively stop the candles being formed. Slide it back up towards "31" to reach maximum usable speed. Any higher than 31, and it enters hyper speed, and is less useful for a bar-by-bar viewing.

Just pick on any pair - any TF - and try it. Write down your trades, and go back over the same period, but use a different TF ... and see if it improves your figures.

It is one way to discover the TF that resonates best with you ... and you get "hands-on" experience trading it at the same time. It works while the market is closed, but you can not actually place orders to test as far as I know. I am no expert on this at all, and am going to find out what other little goodies it can deliver as a Sim/Strategy Tester.

There are other Strategy testers available - some you pay for ... some are free (Google knows where they are) ...

It is not my intention to divert discussion towards Strategy testers. But some may find them useful to grab a bit of active screen time while the markets are closed, especially those whose working hours limit their participation in live action.

There are also 10 pages of reading here, on a free tester called VHands:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=60849

Ingot54: Thank you very much for this valuable information. I've just installed the simulator in my MT and it is FANTASTIC how you can apply the naked trading strategy off hours. I really appreciate your post.
But you are wrong. You can put BUY and SELL orders as if you were in real time. Even you can select the num of lots, stop losses and take profits too. How-To is very well explained in the PDF and it is very very easy to do.
I recommend to everyone that use this tool. I thought I can be free this weekend but now I have to continue working and learning. THANKS INGOT54