The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Pedigree]

Let me set a few things in order here. Volume is not a measure of "orders". Volume as presented to you by the platform, is nothing more than "activity" in a pair. It is indicative of "price ticks", be they up or down. Nothing more and nothing less. It is local to your chosen broker and varies with each, unless they are a "white box" or branded server on a larger net.
CJ

Hi CJ,

I have a dilemma that I hope you can at least make a contribution to in the hope of finding a solution.

So, the term "volume" is really a misnomer, and should be more appropriately described as "Tick Volume" because it measures the number of entries into the market rather than the sum of the liquidity each entrant is bringing into it.

Now we know:

1. That Market Makers do not come into the market in large numbers
2. That stop-hunts are carried out by MMs when they are on the hunt
3. That "volume" ALWAYS increases when stop-hunts occur

My dilemma is this: Why does "volume" ALWAYS increase in stop-hunts when MMs who are responsible for it come not in large numbers but with sizable liquidity?

[banteka]

I want to ask you this: Has anything changed in your thinking regarding your recent posts about the market? Is there anything you said that you will now wish to modify in view of seeing things differently now?

Sure. I am always changing my thinking in order to enhance my trading...Naked Trading is not enough by itself. Volume is not enough by itself. Steve Mauro's theories are not enough by themselves. My Trading System is performed of the three methods.

1.- For SCALPING: Volume analysis and candle patterns analysis.
2.- For INTRADAY trading: Naked Trading, Mauro's theories and candle patterns analysis.
3.- For LONG TERM TRADING: Naked Trading and Mauro's theories.

And for ALL of them, NEWS AND RELEASES analysis.

That's all. It's my trading system.

[banteka]

A clear example of VOLUME ANALYSIS just at this moment:

EUR/GBP, GBP/USD, GBP/CAD, GBP/JPY and GBP/CHF

SPIKES WITH VOLUME..For me, a clear signal to enter in the opposite way...

EUR/GBP: LONG
GBP/USD: SHORT
GBP/CAD: SHORT
GBP/JPY: SHORT
GBP/CHF: SHORT

These SPIKES have been produced by a RELEASE IN GBP just 15 minutes ago.
MMs have pushed the price down/up in order to catch SHORTS AND LONGS, depending on the pair.
Don't you see the FOX now?
Now, the entry point is made in M1 in order to achieve the best time and price.
It is supposed that price will try again the levels that the spikes have achieved, or, al least, near them.
The target is to show 'M' or 'W'. The SECOND LEGS of the 'M' and 'W' are our ENTRY POINTS.

And...Why GBP/AUD has not a SPIKE?...Think a moment. What happened tonight with this pair?

Sorry for no posting the charts but it is too much work...

At least 100-150 PIPS are sured.

[Captain Jack]

Let me set a few things in order here. Volume is not a measure of "orders". Volume as presented to you by the platform, is nothing more than "activity" in a pair. It is indicative of "price ticks", be they up or down. Nothing more and nothing less. It is local to your chosen broker and varies with each, unless they are a "white box" or branded server on a larger net.
CJ

Hi CJ,

I have a dilemma that I hope you can at least make a contribution to in the hope of finding a solution.

So, the term "volume" is really a misnomer, and should be more appropriately described as "Tick Volume" because it measures the number of entries into the market rather than the sum of the liquidity each entrant is bringing into it.

Now we know:

1. That Market Makers do not come into the market in large numbers
2. That stop-hunts are carried out by MMs when they are on the hunt
3. That "volume" ALWAYS increases when stop-hunts occur

My dilemma is this: Why does "volume" ALWAYS increase in stop-hunts when MMs who are responsible for it come not in large numbers but with sizable liquidity?

VOLUME

noun
1. a collection of written or printed sheets bound together and constituting a book.
2. one book of a related set or series.
3. a set of issues of a periodical, often covering one year.
4. History/Historical . a roll of papyrus, parchment, or the like, or of manuscript.
5. the amount of space, measured in cubic units, that an object or substance occupies.

This essence of this thread is deception and deceit. VOLUME is nothing more than another basically useless indicator "pushed" onto traders. There is no place in Forex for "volume" as defined above. Volume is a measure of space. How much space does a .0001 cent move in price occupy?

Think about what I posted about "tick volume" and you will have your answer - Stop hunts, especially during "news" events are the "tools" the Fox uses to move price greater distances, in a shorter time than would normally be possible.

Tick volume absolutely does not represent entries into the market. Your broker "filters" the price ticks anyway so you have no idea how many ticks are taking place. A price tick is a movement of price, either up or down. And that is all it is. The reason the number of ticks increase is because price is ticking higher or lower or higher AND lower more frequently than normally would occur.

MMs are ALWAYS in and control the 1st and 3rd day of the 3 day cycles. The 2nd day of the 3 day cycle is normally ALLOWED to be controlled by traders or "the hounds" who have jumped on the false trail laid out by the Fox. The Fox may step aside and let human nature run it's course. Recall that the Fox needs transactions to occur and the largest number of transactions WILL occur at areas of interest for both buyers and sellers. Tick volume can be extremely high while price remains stagnant. Price can also move a great distance while tick volume is very low.

Volume as presented to you by your broker is just another way to get you to look to the East as the Fox exits West...

CJ

[Pedigree]

This essence of this thread is deception and deceit. VOLUME is nothing more than another basically useless indicator "pushed" onto traders. There is no place in Forex for "volume" as defined above. Volume is a measure of space. How much space does a .0001 cent move in price occupy?....

...Volume as presented to you by your broker is just another way to get you to look to the East as the Fox exits West...CJ

Thank you so much for taking the trouble AGAIN to lay this out. What I am wondering is why I needed to hear it again because you said it all right from the outset.

Even price itself is nothing more than a "legal tender" toy handed to everyone to play with while MMs set about separating you from your money - if you don't realize exactly what it is saying to you. This is why its distraction works so well, and to a much greater extent do many indicators do this.

Someone was just asking:

Don't you think that big volumes can be used to identify fake moves, to verify that the fox is doing his work?

Well, yes so long as you interpret it in the right context of the market and are aware that what you are seeing is meant to tell you the exact opposite of what is going on - as is true of price itself! In reality "volume" tells you NOTHING that is real about the market.

So, duplicating indicators, and I mean real indicators, is nothing more than increasing the media of deception you are exposed to, as if price does not do a good enough job of it.

Thanks again CJ.

[banteka]

In reality "volume" tells you NOTHING that is real about the market..

I must disagree. Volume tells you where the FOX goes. And it is very very real. You can ask to my GBP tradings today

[pips400]

Can I kindly suggest for the sake of clarity and meaning no offense, that we move any discussion about volume to a subthread and keep CJ's thread clear. He has stated quite clearly his thoughts about this, and since we are learning CJ's methodology here, I think we should not get the two confused. Not saying either way whether you can or can't use volume, only pointing out that this is not the thread to develop this aspect of trading.

[Lara]

I've been following the debate with interest but imho we are omitting a useful weapon in our fox hunting and that is the spread surge. I posted a trade a few days ago which showed how I use this to spot a good entrance. Like so many aspects of my current trading, CJ (AGAIN) opened my eyes to this very useful and effective trading tool. In my GBPUSD trade below, I entered a short right at yesterday's daily high. Note how the first spread surge (bottom window) occurred approx 15mins before the second which coincided with the spike. Okay granted you need to have been inebriated and on CJ's special brand of Moonshine (helps sometimes in forex ) to have missed the beautiful spike, but the spread for me just added to the confirmation of an imminent reversal and was the closer.

I wouldn't bother with this if you are using a fixed-spread broker, but, if you are with an ECN broker, what a way to see that the fox is in da house. Think of this analogy - sweet-toothed foxy is in the candy store and is stealing the candy off the shelves (our open orders) and then he s t r e t c h e s over the counter and takes all the candy there (our stops and pendings) before making a quick getaway out the door. The more technical amongst us can argue that the LPs do this by reducing liquidity to the brokers but however foxy does this the spread spike is a sure way to trigger our stops and pendings. In a previous life I used to lay ALL the blame at the door of the @&^%)* brokers .

Obviously, like everything in forex (damn ) this does not reflect a reversal ALL the time. But if used at the major candy stores - pivots, daily high / lows, first push of the M or W patterns and major
S & R levels, to name a few of the bigger stores, it comes in very handy as an ADDITIONAL confirmation.

Anyway that's my 25c worth. I DO NOT WANT to detract from the thread; in fact I commend CJ's no-nonsense approach to anyone wanting to clothe us naked ones with indicators . I offer this only as a reminder of an aspect that CJ himself mentioned - but there again CJ must feel free to delete this post if he feels its off topic.

May you skin many..........

Lara

GBPUSD 06.08.13.jpg

[Ingot54]

Can I kindly suggest for the sake of clarity and meaning no offense, that we move any discussion about volume to a subthread and keep CJ's thread clear. He has stated quite clearly his thoughts about this, and since we are learning CJ's methodology here, I think we should not get the two confused. Not saying either way whether you can or can't use volume, only pointing out that this is not the thread to develop this aspect of trading.

Excellent idea, Pips400.

It's easy enough to start a thread and there are, no doubt, enthusiasts who would appreciate that.

Those who want to embrace volume analysis as the next level of what CJ is teaching, they are then free to steer the discussion that way.

[nakedtrader]

If you take volume on its own, and I could be wrong so forgive me, I think it's a recipe for disaster, because you have to understand the overall context and where you are in the market cycle.

I absolutely agree. Volume is an important piece. Put in context.

Hi Banteka, thanks for all your posts. In your signature you mention follow my trades in myfxbook, I used the link but it says your trades are private. You don't have to share, but it would be great to see how you are trading price action.

Cheers

Pips400

Hi PIPS:
I'm afraid I can not share some sections of MYFXBOOK. There is not any evidence of this in the configuration panel. I can only share general information. If someone know how to do it, please share.

In myfxbook, click on your name top right of screen, then click settings, click the "+" to open your accounts, on the account you want to share, click "edit" on the right of the line, at the bottom of the next screen you should see where you can toggle public or private settings for various aspects of your account.

Hope that helps

Hi PIPS: Now all my account is PUBLIC. You can now watch my trades.

Thank yo very much.

Banketa. how do you handle Loss?? what is your basis to go out of a lossing trade?? coz i saw your account and your lossing trades you got out on the RIGHT time before it got worst

nice account BTW