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The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
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Author:  Aus67 [ Tue Mar 05, 2013 10:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:I've been reading Bob's 10.4 Complete System thread and EURGBP has presented a possible trade setup that fits the system. Here is a chart showing EURGBP without any templates or "dirt" to cloud view of what lies under the glass of your computer screens. PRICE!

Here you see what you don't see when looking at lines, indicators, dashboards and alert boxes. PRICE!

A very important event just occurred, actually comprised by a series of related events, on this pair. I have labeled all the "events' for ease of discussion. Looking at the naked chart, what do you see and what do you think is happening or just happened here. Let the discussions begin....the only dumb or stupid questions are the ones not asked.

CJ

Hi CJ
Great thread!
Just browsing through some charts looking for similar events to what you describe...Although I am not sure of what all the letters are yet, is the attached 4h usdcad chart displaying the same kind of event at 1.025?

cheers
Daryl
Author:  Captain Jack [ Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Jemook wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:If you were going to war, would you buy your guns and ammo from your enemy? Easy answer - NO! Unfortunately, in the forex wars, that's exactly what we have to do. The very terminals we use and the tools provided with them are given to us by the brokers, whose money we are trying to take. They set on the other side of the glass and they "see" everything we do. They know our habits and nature much better than we know theirs, or even our own. They know all the "tricks" in the book. They know all the tools we use and they use those very tools against us.
Not to turn your thread into a broker discussion but from what I've seen brokers out there are slowly moving away from market making because traders are becoming more profitable and making too much money from the brokers.

I believe Global Prime is one of the only brokers in the world that does not run a book (market making) and is completely transparent in the Direct Market Access approach.
I consider the thread "wide open" to any opinions, ideas or discussions Jeremy. It's always good to see an "insider" offer up some valuable advice. The only problem is, not many will say what you just said. I'm sure you guys run a good ship at GP, otherwise Steve wouldn't put forth the faith he does in you. It's not always who takes the other side of the order, there are other ways to tip the scales a bit.

When I open an account at a new broker, it's usually a small account, $5K or less. The reason for doing this is that I've found the broker to be "at his best" at this time. Feeds are reliable, slippage is almost non existent and trades are filled quickly. The true test comes when that $5K account hits $10K, then $20K then.... sometimes, things will change. Things like delays in order fills seem to happen quickly. Spreads "seem" to widen a bit. Re-quotes are common. It's not hard to figure out but little can be done except moving on to another. I've actually found Cowboy IBFX, Oanda and FXCM to be suitable for me and I'll keep larger accounts with them.

HotForex was a blast while I could still trade overseas. Can't say they were always a happy bunch, but the checks kept coming! At least till I got the notice I wasn't welcome anymore. :D

After PFGBEST, safety of funds is now a big concern for me. Tradestation/Cowboy IBFX offers some good setups where your funds are kept in an insured account and only your margin money is at risk. No US brokers offer or are required to insure our accounts.

Feel free to add anything to the thread at anytime.

CJ
Author:  erikskenne [ Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
They say more than 90% lose in the forex market so either you have to do the opposite or go with the herd with a strict money management. To have the right expectation is the hardest at least for me.
Well if I can start to think like a fox I may survive a while longer, :)
Author:  garyfritz [ Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
erikskenne wrote:They say more than 90% lose in the forex market ...
I was never quite sure about those 90-95% claims. At http://leaprate.com/files/summaries/fxcm.pdf you can find some stats from a company that tracks forex brokers:

FXCM customers have consistently fared in the bottom half
of all firms reporting, with only 24% of client accounts being
profitable over the past year, well behind both the
industry average of 28% and industry leader Oanda
where more than 40% of accounts made money.

So they say the average is 28% profitable.
Author:  Captain Jack [ Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Aus67 wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:

Hi CJ
Great thread!
Just browsing through some charts looking for similar events to what you describe...Although I am not sure of what all the letters are yet, is the attached 4h usdcad chart displaying the same kind of event at 1.025?

cheers
Daryl
Sure looks like it doesn't it Daryl. But what do these 4 currencies have in common that would cause them to print the same pattern? Four different countries, 4 different currencies, 4 different economies but the crosses print the same price pattern.... Take away the labels, names, dates and time and you are left with one thing....Price!

Good eye and well done.

These patterns are close enough to be twins. They are what I call a "muddled" pattern. I'll post some charts with picture perfect versions of this pattern. As I said, the fox likes deception and distortion to cloud vision. There are many ways to "muddle" a pattern, but it's still there. They can;t hide them completely because price is a printed record of what is happening and what they are doing. Try as they might, the fox can't cover his tracks completely. To see more detail, drop down to the M15 time frame.

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Tue Mar 05, 2013 11:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
mjws00 wrote:Right on CJ. Admittedly my price action terminology is more than a little rusty. I Look forward to learning something.

I see: A false breakout at A. Probably with lots of profit taking to drive it down Retesting at B. Lower High at C. Possible bear control coming. D Maybe an opening gap, short run back into consolidation ending at E with a breakout to new highs and a pullback into the zone. G we have an exhaustion gap followed by a nice little pinbar at H into railroad tracks ( in the same consolodation zone. ) Small half hearted bull rally into railroad tracks at J and back into K where we are back where we started and looking to bounce, and continue the trend or fail and turn lower.

I know I've made a mess out of the terms. And missed a lot. Look forward to learning.

Mike
It's all well thought out Mike, but it's what you are supposed to think. ;)

Neither the bulls, the bears or the brokers are in charge here. Bulls and bears are not trend or move creators. They are buy followers. Neither are brokers who run the Empty4 shops. This is price manipulation at it's finest. Naysayers will shout "Not possible". I say it is! He who pilots price is in control here. I liken him or it to "the fox". He knows where the orders are placed and the amount of orders at each location. He decides when and where price moves, as always. He determines the intent of price. This is the realm of the market maker..... the taker, the giver and the punisher. It's hard to see this pattern for most AFTER it's completed, but it's even harder to see it in progress. Once you see and recognize it, you and the fox are one. For those who don't see it, it's a painful, costly journey. The smaller the time frame that it occurs on, the quicker you need to react, both to save losses and create gains.

If you look at the chart USDCAD chart that Daryl posted and compare it to the EURGBP, note the levels of each step in this process and how they relate to each other. It's the key here.

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
garyfritz wrote:
erikskenne wrote:They say more than 90% lose in the forex market ...
I was never quite sure about those 90-95% claims. At http://leaprate.com/files/summaries/fxcm.pdf you can find some stats from a company that tracks forex brokers:

FXCM customers have consistently fared in the bottom half
of all firms reporting, with only 24% of client accounts being
profitable over the past year, well behind both the
industry average of 28% and industry leader Oanda
where more than 40% of accounts made money.

So they say the average is 28% profitable.
I'd say the 90%+ numbers are way to high....there's not enough new customers coming in to support that turnover rate and still provide the brokers with enough income to survive.

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 12:24 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Aus67 wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:

Hi CJ
Great thread!
Just browsing through some charts looking for similar events to what you describe...Although I am not sure of what all the letters are yet, is the attached 4h usdcad chart displaying the same kind of event at 1.025?

cheers
Daryl
A question for you Daryl....after seeing the 2 charts and the price patterns, do you think USDCAD will print a lower low, near the 1.25++ line? It's possible, BUT, do you think it's highly probable??

Anybody? If a lower low is printed, will there be "pins" as with EURGBP pair?

CJ
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote: It's all well thought out Mike, but it's what you are supposed to think. ;)

Neither the bulls, the bears or the brokers are in charge here. Bulls and bears are not trend or move creators. They are buy followers. Neither are brokers who run the Empty4 shops. This is price manipulation at it's finest. Naysayers will shout "Not possible". I say it is! He who pilots price is in control here. I liken him or it to "the fox". He knows where the orders are placed and the amount of orders at each location. He decides when and where price moves, as always. He determines the intent of price. This is the realm of the market maker..... the taker, the giver and the punisher. It's hard to see this pattern for most AFTER it's completed, but it's even harder to see it in progress. Once you see and recognize it, you and the fox are one. For those who don't see it, it's a painful, costly journey. The smaller the time frame that it occurs on, the quicker you need to react, both to save losses and create gains.

If you look at the chart USDCAD chart that Daryl posted and compare it to the EURGBP, note the levels of each step in this process and how they relate to each other. It's the key here.

CJ
Heh. I love it, CJ. You are playing "a level deeper" as we'd say in Poker. I can do this chart in orderflow perspective as well. Thought you were going for straight up price action. :) As you said it is much much harder to do in real time. But we can easily see trapped bulls, bears, and the frustration the market makers have caused in the past. Reading intent is another game.

Hope you stick around, I promise you'll have at the very least one sponge. Hurry up already ;) You may be able to tell this dimension excites the hell out of me. Reminds me of trading lvl2 on the nasdaq.

Thanks again for sharing your wisdom.

Mike
Author:  garyfritz [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 1:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Oh he'll have more than one sponge, be sure of that! I would give pieces of my anatomy to be able to trade like CJ does. I don't know if I can train myself to think like he does, but I'm tryin' ...
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