Ramblings of a Mad Man

[Reaper]

Breakeven day for me. My issue is that I have an itchy trigger finger. Not waiting for quality setups. I know how to make the pips but I need to be patient.

Made some pips on USDCHF, CADCHF, AUDCHF, NZDUSD, EURUSD.

I also need to remember that some of the pairs may be setting up for the NY session and I need to stop getting in early.

I'm out too sleepy.

[Reaper]

USDCHF, I still want to short this, but its made 3 moves down so I may look for longs tomorrow or just sit on the sidelines. Or perhaps that 3rd move didnt really make a LL so it might not be the end officially.

[Reaper]

Possible M for tomorrow? May create a larger W on the bigger TF.

[Reaper]

Ok lets see where I went wrong,

Pair - Direction - Result - Wheres price now?

Euraud - buy - stopped out due to silly entry - up 50 pips
eurnzd - buy - closed manually due to a bit of chop - up 50 pips
nzdusd - short - got in way too early and closed manually - currently down 10 pips and still falling
audusd - short - got in way too early and closed manually - currently down 10 pips and falling
gbpaud - long - no confidence in my trade closed manually - currently up 50 pips.
euraud - long - lacked conviction to see it thru after the earlier mistake - currently up 55pips.

This is stupid. All my losing trades could have been winners, if I just had more confidence in myself and more patience.

I also need to let my winners run. Patience again ?

[Reaper]

What you reckon? GBPAUD H4

It may retouch the bottom one more time before rising maybe this afternoon/tomorrow.

[Reaper]

Just a quick update, thursday was a very good day 50% gain on my live micro account and today was breakeven despite all the big moves.

I still have a real issue by getting out early. I cant hold a winner, however I think I may have a solution.

I know we're not really meant to use indicators except for volume and a few trend lines here and there as a guide but I'm going to try using a short moving average only to keep me in the trade. From visual backtesting I think this will help me to hold on to winners to their TPs or at least alot closer to it and give me that sanity check that I think I'm missing. Hopefully it will help.

[Reaper]

Just thought I give an update, I managed to grow my micro account 150% over the last 10 days or so by using CJ's methods. I know this would have been alot more if I stayed in my trades until I had a very good reason to come out instead of manually closing them when I felt like it. I have now developed a more concrete trading plan to combat this issue and others.

I have now 4 reasons to exit a trade:

1. SL has been hit.
2. TP has been hit (3xADR).
3. Another reversal pattern on hourly.
4. If shorting, if price moves below the 20 ema and then closes 10 pips above on the hourly TF and vice versa for longs.

Hopefully this will do the trick.

Edit: 5. Close out all trades by close of play Friday.

[Reaper]

I managed to leave two trades overnight..and not worry about them which I'm happy about. Reduced lot sizes, meant no fear/greed emotions which I guess is the way forward.

AUDNZD was profitable last night (25pips or so) but turn sour this morning and gave me a b/e trade.

GBPUSD was up 80 pips last night, and this morning it skyrocketed only to crash later on. Bagged 50 pips, but could have bagged 125. Yes I know "what if", "should have" and the power of hindsight.

I had 175 pips in my basket this morning and now ending the day break even. (Correction 25pips)

I know I shouldn't really tweak my strategy based on one day's performance, I can't help but feeling that I'm over reaching by going for 3xADR. It's like I have gone from one extreme to another. 100 pips is a much more realistic target. 1:3 to 1:4 (R:R) makes much more sense.

3xADR could be achievable if I'm 100% confident about which level we're on. 100 pips on the other hand, should be achievable even if I get the levels wrong. I think I rather go for 100 pips and then have add-on strategy to 'rebuy' into a trend after that target has been reached.

Updated Exit Conditions:

1. SL has been hit. (Initial SL around 25-35pips)
2. TP has been hit. (100pips)
3. Counter trend reversal pattern on hourly. (e.g. M turns into W or vice versa)
4. If shorting, if price moves below the 20 ema and then closes 10 pips above on the hourly TF. Move SL appropriately. (Vice versa for longs)
5. Close out all trades by close of play Friday.

[FlyHighDrifter]

I'm finding it useful to read about other peoples journey with 'CJ' trades, it's helping my development of this method too, thanks for sharing.

With regards RR, if i start to get cold feet and doubt which level we're at I have been reducing my position (by about 3/4) once I have reached anything greater than a 1:3 reward. That way if it goes sour it doesn't affect my profits much, but if price continues to then go back with my original idea I can then add another trade back in..... so far so good

[Reaper]

Yep, levels and lead-in lines can be tricky to determine. We can only use the information the fox gives to us.

I've being giving alot of thought of what I want to achieve. Do I want to extract the maximum pipage possible from every trade or would I just be happy taking profit with RR of 1:2 to 1:4. End of the day more pips doesnt neccessarily mean more money. Consistently gettings pips means trading with higher lottage and therefore more money. I just want consistency with a mechanical approach. I know getting in takes discretion but trade management and exit can be mechanical.

What we know is that price tends to reverse at a session change. It doesnt always happen but does happen more often than not. I think armed with this knowledge, if I'm in a trade, I should always exit at a session change. Yes I could sit there and wait and a reversal pattern to form on the 15min but I think its best to bank what you have and not let greed set in.

I've been visually backtesting and thinking to exit any morning trade by 13:00 GMT and any afternoon trade by the evening. If I exit a morning trade by 13:00, I also skip the afternoon extended stop hunt, which annoyingly can last up to 2 hours.