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Traderdesk journal
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Author:  TraderDesk [ Tue Apr 09, 2013 1:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
So far today's PA was once again muted. If you in a scalping mode you would be making a lot of pips but longer term trades are still quiet. Next time I think I will try some scalping but in the direction of the major trend...

Taking a look at the 15 minute TF and it shows ranging action... Scalping can make a lot of pips in this case... :)
gbpjpy15.png
Just to give you an idea here is a 5m TF chart, with some logical buy and take-profit level a trader could gather at least 10 pips per trade.... Your bias is bullish so place a trade near the 151.30 area and take profit in the 151.40 area... wash and rinse.... :D
gbpjpy5.png
Author:  TraderDesk [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 9:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
April 10 2013:

Late start for me as I just got in but here is the picture of the 15TF.... PA rose from the start of the day and has been bullish. I would look to add positions on pullbacks as long as PA stays above the blue HA line... ADR range topside is around 153.50 and DR2 153.4 area so a TP can be put underneath that...
gbpjpy15.png
Author:  TraderDesk [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
So far today I played a few positions to scalp. I would like to see a better signal on the 4 hour TF but STO is way OB and RSI is at the bottom now for several bars. So when they are not optimum I look at the hour TF and since STO is still high I will put a BUY LIMIT on DP.
Author:  TraderDesk [ Wed Apr 10, 2013 3:58 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
Point: Drawdown whether floating or actual has to be kept to a minimum if you want to make impressive gains yet kept your capital from bouncing like a tennis ball in a John McEnroe explosion... Also investors will love you if you can maintain this herculean task of small drawdowns in your trading history...
Author:  TraderDesk [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 5:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
April 11 2013:

Good morning... Today is a Thursday and I usually find Thursdays to be more volatile so lets hope for some nice trades today. :)

Currently looking at the hourly chart we are still in a bullish pattern and setting a few positions lower like at DP is a good R/R. I am late to that party but I set a pending in the case of a revisit.
gbpjpyh1.png
I5 minute TF is showing the beginning of a intraday bull trend so we will take advantage of that by opening a new position at these levels. If it is a bull run then I want to be onboard. :)
gbpjpy15.png
TP for me is ADR level(30) which is around the 154 level... If it continues up good but I will look to close positions at 154 which is also a whole number that cable likes...
Author:  TraderDesk [ Thu Apr 11, 2013 3:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
Today I have so far taken around 272 pips mostly with GBP/JPY... I am being careful for a YEN retracement if 100(USD/JPY) does not break soon. If such a retracement occurs I am not looking for a drop of more then a few hundred pips...
Author:  TraderDesk [ Fri Apr 12, 2013 5:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
April 12 2013:

Good morning.

Looking at the hourly chart PA has dropped near the HA line and STO is at the bottom. PA is also above the 240ma as well as the 4 hour HA line.

Action for today is to place "buy limits" at the daily pivot lines DP, DMS1, DS1.

Until the 15 minute HA line is breached to the upside by PA I will not be adding scalping positions...I need to see price above the opening daily price - 153.30-40 area for a bull intraday trend to start to develop...
Author:  TraderDesk [ Fri Apr 12, 2013 9:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
PA has so far gone down 175 pips, close to the 200 pips I was expecting... Nice little retracement on a Friday that gives traders a better positional bullish buy.

I had added a pending buy limit at DMS2 that was trigger as well. So now we see how strong the correct will be from here... I don't know but it would be nice for PA to go back up to the DP pivot before tonight closes... :)
Author:  TraderDesk [ Sat Apr 13, 2013 7:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
April 13 2013:

Weekly Review -

Trading a volatile JPY cross is profitable but I must be aware of strong retracements especially after a strong move like last week. PA went up over a thousand pips within a week so I always keep in mind that 38.2% retracements become a higher probability when the initial frenzy wears off.

Everything is about probabilities. Why do I stress that? Because in trading I have to look at every trade in percentage of probabilities to arrive at my trading decision. Am I correct in every trade? Of course not. What I do want is to have a higher probability so I look for initial conditions that have reflected a known outcome and when found I apply a higher probability number to this outcome. Keep in mind that similar initial conditions do not mean a similar outcome all the time but that has to do with Chaos theory etc... That is a discussion for another place :)

Now getting back to the weekly review I have attached a 4H chart. As you can see PA dramatically fell almost three hundred points and brought Price down to the HA line... In past cases the probability of PA bouncing off of this line when the larger trend is still bullish i.e. price still above the daily HA line or H4 240ma, is higher than breaking thru. So my bias longer-term is still bullish.
gbpjpyh41304.png
What I have done is to show an example why paring down or not opening more positions when PA is moving against your initial position. My floating DD has increase to 22% because I was opening new positions at the Daily pivot lines as price fell. Bad. bad. bad. :) Remember: This pertains to my strategy here on this account. Other strategies add when PA goes against the major trend and works for them. Leverage is a big factor in those decisions and since I am trying to leverage highly my trades I must be extremely vigilant against adding positions while in DD. ;)

The way I normally trade is not to add positions when PA on the 15 minute TF HA is below the line. Below is the 15 minute chart where I went against my strategy hence the draw-down. Since I knew that there was a strong possibility of a reversal if USD/JPY price did not break 100 I should not add positions especially when my setup is telling me the same thing. There are always exceptions which I will use when it is appropriate. In this case it was not.
gbpjpym151304.png
Applying risk management will help to insure that my trades are appropriately structured. Since I am looking to create high monthly leverage profit with this demo my risk rules will be set to scale out of bad trades quickly and add positions to winning trades while keeping DD to a minimum. Period.

First week trading demonstrated by not following RMR(risk management rules) I can quickly accrue floating DD while over-leveraging my account.

Goal from now on is never to accrue more than 5% floating DD and target 40% increase in account monthly...

So to sum up first week review:

JPY crosses are volatile
Retracements can be deep especially after a strong initial trend run
Quickly scale down losing positions
Add to winning positions
Floating DD is a bitch, avoid avoid and avoid.

----------------------------------------------------------

Next week preview thoughts:

GBP/JPY -
Since PA is still above the daily HA line or 240ma my bias is bullish. I am looking for PA to bounce from where we are now once Monday's trading is in swing... PA needs to get above the 15 minute HA line to increase the possibility of a bullish day.

What I could do if PA continues south? Pare positions and/or hedge until outlook changes but I won't know what I will do until Monday maybe Tuesday... :)
Author:  TraderDesk [ Sun Apr 14, 2013 1:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Traderdesk journal
April 14 2013:

Sunday evening and I am looking at GBP/JPY charts. Price action for Friday was to drop a good amount, around 300 pips in total so what do I look for on Monday? If I see a gap and a continuation of a bear move PA could hit 148.50 down to the 148 level before smart money starts to acquire longs.

AS of now all I know is "nothing" until PA starts on Monday... Smart money, dumb money, technicals, fundamentals all mean nothing to a small retail trader like me. All I can surmise is price action and I have to wait until the market opens and enough players get involve. I can tell you what I would like to see but the market does not care what I think so I won't. :)

Either way I will try to take advantage of the intraday trend when it shows itself... 8-)
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