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Nadex
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Author:  garyfritz [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 5:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
I missed a couple of chances to see Darrell Martin and Tom O'Brien teaching binary strategies last winter. I'll have to ask my broker friend who set those up if she's still promoting Nadex.
Author:  slowkey [ Sun Jun 09, 2013 6:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
garyfritz wrote:I missed a couple of chances to see Darrell Martin and Tom O'Brien teaching binary strategies last winter. I'll have to ask my broker friend who set those up if she's still promoting Nadex.
He talks really fast. His knowledge of this stuff is very deep. My impression is that he is a very sharp guy. The videos he does are very professional. However I am still waiting for the catch :lol: I am still trying to figure out his product pricing. The videos are free for ever it appears. There is pricing for the scanner so I do not know if they have a different more advance scanner you pay for or that the scanner is only free with the basic membership for a limited time. I am going to have to dig deeper. I think the deviations level access is free but if you want the plugin for ninja it cost a reasonable amount a month to get these drawn on the chart automatically. If what you see is what you get free with the basic membership I would be only interested in the plugin for the deviation levels. It would be nice to have them on the chart. The education he gives you for free is the best deal. I will take free every day. :D

Oh I guess the scanners are free. The one that has a price is for his system in ninja and not the same as the free ones.
Author:  SatchFan [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 12:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
slowkey,
Do you know if the Demo account at Nadex can be extended beyond the 2 week initial trial? I would need 2-3 months to see if this would be something I am interested in. Thanks for posting this by the way, It seems like something I would do. I used to trade options when I was trading commodities back in the day. I would hedge, use an option as a stop and reverse with the strike near my stop level on the futures trade, among other strategies.

Thanks,
SatchFan
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 1:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
SatchFan wrote:slowkey,
Do you know if the Demo account at Nadex can be extended beyond the 2 week initial trial? I would need 2-3 months to see if this would be something I am interested in. Thanks for posting this by the way, It seems like something I would do. I used to trade options when I was trading commodities back in the day. I would hedge, use an option as a stop and reverse with the strike near my stop level on the futures trade, among other strategies. c

Thanks,
SatchFan
From what Darrel says this is what you can do.

TIP: Email dan.cook@nadex.com after funding a live account with only $100 or more to get your demo extended to 1 year. Don’t call to get this deal you only get it by emailing Dan.

So you can but you have to fund a live account.

Edit... I think you probably have to be a basic member of apexinvesting.com to get this extension. A basic membership is free and for what you get... free is a lot.
Doug
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
Just did the straddle strategy I explained earlier. Just learning these techniques but this was a successful trade. I can see why renko bars might work nicely with options. See the following charts. Made 28.00 in just over an hour.

So this trade created a 40 pip window for the market to occupy. I did not plan to hold the trade to expiration unless the market was dead center at 98.00 at 22:15. Around 22:55 the market makers shut down the ability to close out a position so you must at that time be in the money. Better to take your profit and not let things get dicey. So I closed out the trade at 10:45 with 28.00 dollars of profit. That was just one lot. If you have the bank roll to trade 10 that would have been equal to a standard lot and you would have made 280.00 dollars. That would have cost you 1060.00 but this is an expensive strategy because it has two legs. Half that for a high percentage option trade. You can trade a standard lot equivalent a lot cheaper than Forex and know going in that the risk will not change and no stop outs. I am not going to be trading that high but as an example you can get the drift as to how Nadex may actually fulfill the promise that Forex has never been able to live up to for the retail trader.

So first the Renko chart with a 40 pip range defined which I purchased.
Chart.jpg
And now the platform with profit.
reward.jpg
The risk of the buy option was 82 dollars and the risk of the sell was 76 dollars which left a profit window of 42 dollars if they would have gone to expiration. Like I say that can be dicey.
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 6:10 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
It is pretty easy to see what a standard lot would cost because all binaries have a floor of 0 and a ceiling of 100. On the ticket a 1 to 1 binary standard lot equivalent would cost you 500.00. If you had a good idea about a big move you might drop that to 200 to 300 dollars. That is your total risk and you know it before you trade. That is very cool. So a standard lot binary would always pay 1000.00 if it were true.
50.jpg
This is a spread equal to a standard lot. About 12 pips from break even. It is 250 pips wide so has plenty of room to run. The profit potential is astronomical of course if eurusd only moves a 100 pips you are only going to see a 1000.00 profit but that would be 4:1. Where will you find a broker that will give you that kind of margin and of course your total exposure on this trade is 250.00.
frm00003.jpg
Just dreaming a little bit but goes to show that somethings may be more reachable when you have such defined risk.
Author:  scheinwerfer [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 11:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
Doug, what kind of hit rate is needed to stay afloat, if considered the option would be kept until expiry? I looked into other options, the ones which are offered by those über crims (24options and similar), and found out that those need 70% hit rate to make them reasonable to trade.

Thanks!
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 6:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
scheinwerfer wrote:Doug, what kind of hit rate is needed to stay afloat, if considered the option would be kept until expiry? I looked into other options, the ones which are offered by those über crims (24options and similar), and found out that those need 70% hit rate to make them reasonable to trade.

Thanks!
Strategy is everything so when the bucket shops construct their contracts they are aware of this fact. So they build into the option certain limitations that keeps you from taking advantage of strategy and they tilt the market against you. A 48/52 option is generally where the market is at the time of expiration from what Darrel says in his videos. This makes complete sense because all Nadex binaries have a floor of 0 and ceiling of 100. Getting a price like this will depend on time and how the other traders are buying the binary. This can be 57/43 for instance if more are selling.The price ladder is always moving but 50 should be where the market is at. Getting a price close to that depends on what every one else thinks. This can widen or narrow. Of course this is a key attribute of Nadex is that you have a price ladder. If you think there is going to be a big move and you are right paying 5.00 for a binary that settles at 100.00 is something like 20:1 reward. There is no broker in the middle controlling things. The risk of trading is the collateral you must put up determined by the market maker which is strictly based on whether most members are buying or selling. It will always be more risk if you are trading with the majority because that is considered the winning position to be on and the market makers must be able to settle that position. Just like in horse racing the big money comes when you bet against the crowd. The difference is you do not handicap with statistics but you use technical analysis and option strategy to extract money from the exchange. The exchange runs on fees 90 cents a contract but there is a 9.00 cap on an individual trade so if you trade 20 contracts ... I wish ... It would only be 9.00. After that everything is technical analysis and than strategy. Where is the market moving. Are others right. If I do a 40/60 contract because I believe the market is moving that direction I am taking on more risk but also the knowledge of more certainty in that the other traders are thinking the same thing. If I go the 40 side because I think they are wrong than I will be taking on less risk and getting a bigger reward if I am right but most do not agree with me. Of course in Forex how often is the crowd really right. In Horse racing it is about 33 percent of the time. The CFTC would only allow a completely fair exchange in the US. This is the only binary exchange in the US and for US citizens it is not legal to trade outside the US on binaries. Darrell said something in the videos that they may allow the exchange to be joined by people who live outside of the US but as in everything else these days that would require CFTC approval. It is really cool because you become a member of the exchange and everyone has complete anonymity. I am a really good horse racing handicapper. This is similar to odds in racing. If you go with the crowd you will have a high win rate but will not break even over the long term. Technical analysis and strategy are everything. This a real and fair market.

Here is a link to an interview with the exchanges president on forex magnates.
http://forexmagnates.com/executive-inte ... ceo-nadex/
Author:  slowkey [ Mon Jun 10, 2013 7:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
Here is a link to forex magnates today that comments on that there are discussions with companies outside the US to partner with Nadex.

http://forexmagnates.com/the-aftermath- ... he-future/

From the article "Not economically advantageous" because the bucket shops cannot rip you off in the US.
Author:  SatchFan [ Tue Jun 11, 2013 1:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Nadex
slowkey wrote:
SatchFan wrote:slowkey,
Do you know if the Demo account at Nadex can be extended beyond the 2 week initial trial?

Thanks,
SatchFan
From what Darrel says this is what you can do.

TIP: Email dan.cook@nadex.com after funding a live account with only $100 or more to get your demo extended to 1 year. Don’t call to get this deal you only get it by emailing Dan.

So you can but you have to fund a live account.

Doug
Thank You for this information! Also, Thanks for the Forex Magnates links. :)

I'll have some time off work around the July 4th holiday so I will probably wait to open a Demo account until then. If I like what I see during the Demo period, I'll fund the account with a small amount and extend my Demo by using your tip. :)

SatchFan
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