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| Intraday with HGI https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=6345 |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Sun Jul 16, 2023 6:50 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
Thanks Steve - appreciate it. |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Sun Jul 16, 2023 7:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
Setups for Monday I'm looking for certain 'triggers' to create a shortlist for the following day. Of particular interest is a D1 bear candle following several days of bulls (or following a very large bull candle). Gold has been trending up for a week and on Thursday we had a day where the market churned across the 3 sessions, still closing the day higher than it opened. Friday, the market shows some signs that it may be breaking down giving Lower Highs and Lower Lows. My thesis for Monday is that the breakdown will continue, and if so price will hit the top target as a minimum (which should give me plenty of scope to scalp 25-50 pips). Price appears to be auctioning in a 150-pip box and so if there is a break out we could see a 150-pip move which takes us back to the start of the most recent pump (1935). If this happens I assume most of the move will be triggered by the major news at 1330. UJ - is essentially the opposite of what we are seeing on Gold. Multiple days trending down, then on Friday we get a failed breakout (of the previous day) in the Asian Open (AO), a W formation, a change in market structure, and the D1 bull candle. I'm looking for some kind of 3-push pattern back towards Friday's low and before a long entry. Similar to Gold but Friday closed at the new low, which could trigger shorting in the AO and lead to a slower LO. Of the various indices, DAX seems to offer up some decent opportunities in the LO. Again, we see a similar trigger - multiple days of pushes and price starting to breakdown on Friday, closing as a D1 bear candle. In all cases, I'm looking for a 3 push pattern occurring at an area of interest (swing levels, round numbers) and at the right time (into or during the LO). Of course, my analysis may change depending on what happens overnight and during the AO. Even if my analysis doesn't change, there is no way I can predict what will happen in the market and price could easily do the opposite of my thesis. The point of the analysis is to give me a clear reason to enter a position, with a clear exit target, giving me enough room to take a 1 risk to 3-5 reward trade. |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Mon Jul 17, 2023 10:28 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
DAX From the watchlist, DAX seemed to set up the cleanest for an entry in the LO. On the M15 chart, we can see that the market structure continues down with a new LL at the end of the Asian session. I'm looking for some kind of 3 push pattern to the high, culminating in an M or H&S pattern at a relevant level. I've marked an area of interest on the chart, which encompasses 2 relevant levels the last swing high from the US session on Friday and the '00' level. Price auctions up to this level, breaking out of the AO high in 3 pushes (clearer on the M1 chart below). Following the 3 pushes out of the AO high, an M formation is put in place and engulfed with the 0925 candle. At this point, HGI (on M1) has given a yellow wave indicating the up trend may be coming to an end, and moments later a blue wave indicating that we may be starting a downtrend and I entered with a market order. I'm not sure when the big red trend arrows were generated. I used RADs to add pending shorts. I closed my positions on a Yellow Wave, but really should have let this run! I placed another pending short below the consolidation with a TP just above the RN. Dax traded according to my analysis from Sunday evening. I still expect the price to fall further but there is major news in a couple of hours and my assumption is that markets will now be 'prepared' for a move during/after the news. |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Mon Jul 17, 2023 1:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
USDJPY - NYO 3 pushes down, AO low, LO low, gap prior to the NYO. Red news, so wait until that's out of the way. Entry after the red news - a bit of a non-event for this pair so entered as soon as spreads were reasonable. Added smaller lots on the green RADs (pyramiding) and closed when blue wave formed, for a decent profit in about 30 minutes. |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Mon Jul 17, 2023 2:11 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
Scalp the H4 breakouts Still on UJ and still with the same overall thesis. On the lead into the NY Equity Open, there is a bullish flag forming. On its own, this pattern doesn't really mean much (to me) and going over charts it you'll see plenty of times where this pattern occurs and price falls! (It's a trap). In this case, my overall thesis is for longs, and even though we are already high for the day, it looks like there could be a stop hunt, or even a breakout (which would give a significant move). The reason this flag pattern is of interest to me is the levels and timing. The NY equity markets are about to open and this can have an impact on FX markets. Price is hovering around the '00' level, we are at the high of the previous H4 candle and we are close to the high of the previous day (Purple line). So the market just needs to pump a little higher to trigger stops for both the H4 traders and D1 traders, which is exactly what it does. There was an M formation and yellow waves, so I assumed this was a stop hunt and closed the position. (NOTE: the big red trend arrows didn't appear until after I had closed the position) |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Tue Jul 18, 2023 10:05 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
Inside Day - First Red Day - GBPJPY First Red Day is the term used by Stacy Burke (loads of videos on YT for anyone who is interested) for a trigger day. The FRD is when there have been multiple days of pumping up the price and the trigger day is the first day when the close is lower than the open (i.e. a red candle). You can see the trendline (I don't trade the trendline, but they are useful for annotation/explanation) from the low of Thursday is clearly broken on Monday, so the trend may have come to an end. The vertical move on Monday in the NY session (blue) is another indication that the market may be changing. It's also worth noting that Monday was an INSIDE DAY, i.e. the entire day traded within Friday's range, and means we have stops above and below where the price is auctioning, and not too far away for any market participants looking for liquidity. The other thing to note is that Monday gave a clear break in market structure, and as we come into Tuesday morning the market structure is down (HL's and LL'). With the market already breaking down, I am looking for a pullback and continuation entry into the LO (0700 UK). Price pushes down into the LO window, looking like it could be a runaway, pulling intraday shorts in for 15 minutes, before the stop hunt, back up to the Asian Range low, taking out early intraday short stops. There is a Head and Shoulder pattern (a variant of the 3-push pattern that I am looking for), which is engulfed (along with the 20 EMA) by the 07:48 candle, the start of a new 15-minute candle. I've also got a blue wave (short) and RAD, and we are at a level ('25' and low of Asain Range) so take the entry. My target is Monday's low where I anticipate stops will get taken out. I added an entry a few minutes later on a RAD. I closed one position when we hit the '75' level, and moved my other stop to BE which was hit a little later. This gave 4R on one entry and BE (plus a bit) on the other. Had I watched the M1 or M5 closely I'm sure HGI would have given signals to get out of my 2nd position earlier, but I've been in this situation before and as soon as you close the position, price rushes off to hit the original target. My current approach is to use multiple entries to scale in and out of a position. Taking a decent profit and moving the remaining positions to BE is a great way to reduce stress when trading. |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Tue Jul 18, 2023 2:20 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
Second bite of GBPJPY The post above covered a LO trade on GJ. It playout roughly in line with expectations, but had not taken out the low from Monday, and with major US news on the calendar, my plan for the afternoon is to wait for the news and see if a short entry presents (see previous post for why I'm looking to short). (HGI on the M15 and M5 both give short signals.) The news caused a spike down to take-out stops from the LO session (orange block). NOTE: for anyone new who may read FX, US red/major news may impact any/all currency pairs, and for intraday trading, I am always out of the market or hedged...but normally out. Price then auctions back up and past the most recent M1 high, BUT pulls back inside. We get a head and shoulder formation, bear engulfing candles and a yellow wave high for the first entry. A blue wave and I add to the position. Altogether I open and closed 4 positions over the next hour or so. 3 with decent profits and 1 breakeven. The purple horizontal line is the previous day's low. Once that was hit, I moved my stops tight and for a moment thought I may have caught a breakout. But as you can see, as soon as stops were hit the market pulled back immediately trapping longer timeframe traders, as well as anyone still shorting the market. Note: I came back to the screen 30 minutes later and the market makers had moved the price back to the high of the day. This is always a possible outcome following an Inside Day. Take a look over the charts and there are lots of inside D1 candles, followed by an outside candle (taking both the high and low stops). Another consideration is that when we see price stepping down, there is a lot of market churn, so traders are entering and using various swing points for stops or entry criteria. This sudden low-to-high (high-to-low) can be anticipated as market makers want to trap traders and hit stops as quickly as possible having spent the day setting this up. |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Wed Jul 19, 2023 5:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
Take note of news when trading intraday On high timeframes, you can ignore most news, most of the time. There are exceptions (NPF for example), where you may want to close or hedge before the news, but in general, if your swing trading over a few days or week, day-to-day news releases probably won't make much impact. This is not the case on intraday. As mentioned previously, I am not in the market for major red news (close or hedge opens positions and wait for entries). But it is also useful to consider what other news is coming up and adjust your plans as necessary. For example, there are times when the Red News is that a Central Banker is giving a talk at e.g 0900. That event comes and goes without any impact on the market, 20 minutes later, the CB says something stupid and you're stopped out of your positions because the market makers pulled the bids and offer while the news is digested. Today we had an example of a low (yellow on forex factory) news event impacting a market. I'll run through the setup first, to give context on why this was a good opportunity, then cover the news and entry after. EURUSD - bigger picture The chart shows how FX pairs tend to move in a box, with the size of the box depending on the volatility of the pair. In the case of EU, it's moving in a 50-pip box, generally from 00-50-00 etc. A couple of weeks ago, price was auctioning, around the same 25 pip box for about a week (with a few false breaks to encourage traders in). It broke below the box at the low of the week, pulled back inside and began a week-long trend, in 3-pushes (and 300 pips), before entering another 25-pip box and consolidating for the last 3+ days. Yesterday gave a failed breakout at the high of the week, and so we have the start of a trading plan. Dropping down to the M15 we can see the failed breakout more clearly... Monday set the Opening Range (the high and low of Monday), for the week ahead, and it's a 50-pip box. We have Tuesday closing as a Bear Candle, having broken out and pulled back, deep into the day's range. We can now start to look for a 3-push pattern and an indication that the high of the day is locked to give a short entry. (NOTE: Using HGI with this analysis is still quite new to me, though HGI is not. It does seem to be possible to trade using the setups and level with HGI on the M1, irrespective of other timeframes, and I have done so over the last week or so. However, when the M1 signal is in alignment with the M15 signal, the trades 'feel' easier). The next chart is the M15 with HGI and a bit more annotation... Keep in mind that the HGI signals were not exactly the same as this while in live-time, but overall fairly close and certainly the impression is of a bear trend. Working left to right, yesterday had a failed breakout and closed lower, trapping bull traders. There was GBP red news at 0700 UK (0900 chart), so I do nothing. We get a blue wave which I can ignore as this is due to the news (I assume). After the news we get a 3-push pattern (3 strong bull, M15 candles) and reversal traders are being tempted into the market. However at 1000 (UK), there is some minor (yellow on forex factory) news. Yellow news is not normally a concern, but the UK CPI figures were lower than the consensus, and so I'm more interested in how the market may react to EUR CPI, so hold off. There is a further pump back up which takes us to the news and had I been at the PC I could have taken an entry shortly after. Not being around at the time I came back for the US News at 1330, and took 4 entries once price had pushed back up and we got some HGI signals to short. 1 was a full loss, one was a 9R and once that hit I placed TP a further 25 pips and 50 for the 2 remaining positions and SL's at ~3 or 4R. |
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| Author: | TableTop [ Mon Jul 24, 2023 11:38 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Intraday with HGI |
TLDR: probably not a good addition for intraday I spent a lot of time over the weekend reviewing many screenshots from many fx pairs as well asl Gold, Oil and several indexes (indices?), trying to determine whether using HGI would add a useful confirmation signal and exit signal to my intraday trading method. While trading with HGI in live-time, I found some trades worked well, but there were many setups where my entries were off by a few bars, which was enough to have missed the big move. I sometimes found I needed to enter a trade on a yellow wave, as the blue wave would be too late. One reason could be that news can have a big impact on intraday trades, and even though I am out of the market for the news, I will often get back in immediately after or at least within an hour. HGI on the M1/M5/M15 timeframe doesn't really cope that well with news (IMO). I'm sure this isn't a surprise to anyone experienced with HGI but I thought it was worth exploring. It may seem that I should give this longer (and if anyone wants to please do go ahead) but what I really want is something that gives a very quick indication that a move is starting. I also think it may be something from this great site - BSS! I'll run some experiments this week and if it looks interesting, setup a new thread. |
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