Soulfire it is really nice to here from you. Very nice template. I agree with you on the AUD and NZD pairs. It is great to buy them and in this sense I am not referring to short or long but to there Carry. Very nice positive interest with them. To sell them you have to take into consideration the loss of interest vs other pairs but all these pairs you have mentioned have been strengthening lately.
Top chart is the Daily and the second down the weekly...
I am actually short GPBNZD having got into the pair on the pull back. I am also short GBPAUD having got into it on the last little pullback. If you look at the weekly chart which is the second down from the top the pair has been in a strong downtrend for ever. By this I mean the SDC channel slope from peak to trough. The slope of the deviation channels. So there is a lot of momentum to the down side even though the Daily looks like it is in an uptrend slightly. So I think price will at least make it to the 1.62 lower deviation channel on the daily chart which I have highlighted in red. The last time the pair pulled back to the 1.27 on the weekly chart it went all the way down to the lower 1.27 of the weekly chart. I am not sure that is going to happen this time but on the weekly chart it has not even made it to the central deviation channel yet. So there will be a long but I think I may be able to stay short at least until I get to the highlighted in red 1.62 channel on the daily. It may well be even lower.
Now I am still developing my thinking on this and humbly admit that price could do anything. It is going to take a lot of trading of this setup to work out in mind mine specific rules.
You have help me here because you got me thinking about the SMI top down. Everything about my approach is top down from one chart to the next. The same on my Intraday setup.
When looking at the SMI it is good to compare it to the SMI on the Four Hour and on the weekly. On the Four hour chart the SMI is turning down and has a ways to go yet. On the weekly it is doing the same thing. So if we were trading either one of them I would feel comfortable with a short. Also looking at the deviation channels on each one I can see that I have a ways to go till I get to a deviation channel below the central deviation channel. You can see easily how the daily fits into the weekly time period by looking at the aqua check marks I placed at the bottom of the move on the weekly and on the Daily. I look to the lower time periods and higher time period for some confirmation that a real change in direction is about to occur. So this is a rule probably that would be good to add to the setup as I develop it. How does the Daily fit when compared to both the next time period higher and time period lower. The same for 4 Hour swing trades.
Something else that popped into my mind as I looked at this from the point of view of you sharing here. I am now wondering if the Weekly should be the chart central to position trades with the Daily and Four hour for confirmation and entry. Really have not traded this enough to know yet but this may be a way to go.
I like the way you are formulating some rules and I hope to do this too as I develop the setup. I really appreciate you sharing. These kind of trades I think can be very stress free and offer a real nice value and are enjoyable to study. The more we share the more we learn how to make this easier.
Cheers