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| Support, Resistance & Chart patterns https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=553 |
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| Author: | madwt [ Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:31 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Nicely observed and explained. |
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| Author: | madwt [ Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:37 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Great example of combining supply and demand with compression. It will be interesting as that time of the year is historically bullish for US stocks. |
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| Author: | madwt [ Sat Nov 03, 2012 8:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Although it is comforting to know your entry was almost pip perfect, indicating you are doing well in choosing your demand/supply levels. Better to miss an entry than be in a trade you regret. |
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| Author: | madwt [ Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
EurGbp |
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| Author: | slipshod [ Mon Nov 05, 2012 9:39 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Interesting - I hadn't seen the correlation with the longer term trendline. Here's my thoughts on how I saw EURGBP today... |
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| Author: | slipshod [ Mon Nov 05, 2012 1:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Interesting the way EURAUD has worked out in the 3 weeks since Goldman Sachs called an EA long the "trade of the century"... the clues as to what they were really doing were there in plain sight on the chart. |
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| Author: | Romsunz [ Wed Nov 07, 2012 6:50 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Is it good entry on retest in supply zone or should we wait till bounce or break? |
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| Author: | slipshod [ Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:04 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Hi Romsunz - I tend to follow Sam Seiden's approach, which is to enter on the retest with pending (limit) orders, which by definition means I'm not waiting for bounces, breaks, or price action to indicate a reversal. The thinking is that this gives you the best possible entry, that you're entering where big banks are also likely to be entering. The advantages are therefore having close stop losses and maximising your profits, but the disadvantages are of course the risk of getting it wrong. Your identification of the zones needs to be spot on, along with your feel for the direction of the market & where the price is likely to turn in your favour. This is a matter of practice - the more you trade that way, the better your entries become. Remember we don't need to have every entry succeed, but rather to have a high enough proportion of them run to the take-profit level to exceed the amount lost from stops being hit. That's not to say that you can't trade successfully by waiting for a bounce or price action in favour of reversal first. My good friend Nick of http://forexnoobs.com has developed an extremely successful trading method based on support/resistance with bouncing or hesitation prior to entry. I guess it depends on your personality as to which method you prefer |
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| Author: | Romsunz [ Wed Nov 07, 2012 8:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Thank you for answer. Can you give links to read about how to identify supp/dem zones? And one more question: do you look at zones only near trendlines to enter? |
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| Author: | slipshod [ Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:07 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Support, Resistance & Chart patterns |
Sure - I'll have some links here tomorrow, will also try and create my own summary to make it simple as Sam Seiden's methods are spread over hundreds of articles & webinars rather than in one convenient place. Strictly speaking no. Often price will reverse off a zone that's nowhere near a trendline, also if you look at pairs like EU since mid September they've hardly trended, just oscillated around in a range. When a trendline is present though, it adds to the potential reliability of a trade - same as a Wolfe Wave or expanding wedge does, as they also indicate a reversal may happen. These things add to the odds of your trade working, but while nice to have they're not essential. The reason is that when it comes to trading forex, big investment banks decide the price area where they want to buy and sell, and they'll allow the price to move (with a little nudge when needed) until it reaches their zone. They're not running systems with dozens of indicators, they're not scanning charts for head and shoulders patterns or MA crosses - they're the masters of the market as they have power to move it the direction they want it to go. I'm convinced that they sometimes look at trendlines and allow them to deliberately break in order to fool everyone The main key I've found is to ask yourself "if I were big money wanting to long this, has it dropped far enough that (a) I can be sure the dumb money is short, (b) the price is nice and cheap, and (c) its in (or near) the area where they've shown they wanted to buy previously (support/demand)". If, for example, the price has run up quite a distance, hit resistance and is struggling, then falls a little way to the highest demand or support zone, is that a zone you really think big money would take long positions off? Would they not be more likely to have shorted off the resistance instead? Perhaps they want it to fall further before they load up long again. The further the price has already run, the less likely a test of a nearby zone will succeed & spark another leg of the run. Such things are always approximate of course, which is why you'll inevitably get some trades wrong and experience the joy of blown stops - however I find that when I get it badly wrong its because I haven't paid enough attention to the "is it cheap enough" question, and I'm in too early before the price can retrace. Edit: Btw I hope you took that EU short - 40 pips so far Edit #2: My TP hit on that EU short @ the support zone (100 pips) - hoping to trail it further with the 2nd entry if it wants to carry on... |
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