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10.6 EDSEL
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Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
zTB » Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:06 am wrote:Forgive me for presenting classical charting on 10.6 thread, but perhaps after spending December 2013 and early January 2014 clearing multi-month resistance USDCAD -- if not doing a GBPCAD -- is probably just following through.

Z
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
Author:  rocketman99 [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
This is my theory. AUS and CAD economies are rated better and safer than rest of first world, so money is parked in these countries. So before rate decision, money flows out of economy for fear of interest rate cuts. If there is no change or increase in rate, huge amounts of money flows back into the safe haven. This obviously irks the central bank governors of AUD and CAD as the appreciation of their currencies hurts exports, so they keep talking about driving down their value.

Anyway, AUD follows the same pattern - happened last month (no change - huge jump). See again next week for AUD announcement.
Author:  rosst [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:42 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
nanningbob » Wed Jan 22, 2014 4:43 pm wrote:
zTB » Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:06 am wrote:Forgive me for presenting classical charting on 10.6 thread, but perhaps after spending December 2013 and early January 2014 clearing multi-month resistance USDCAD -- if not doing a GBPCAD -- is probably just following through.

Z
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
There is a former bank trader showing some stuff over at Compass if you are interested I can send you a link - I am sure they will be selling something, but I don't know what yet - I watched him trade the AUD announcement yesterday - he has an interesting take on things - you could probably watch while it is free and get what you need - if anything....
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:22 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
OK last nights CAD moves kind of made the lines give some directions. First the UT movement on CSS Daily.

GBP is moving stronger again. That is not a surprise but most of that strength comes from gbp/cad move. Whether it affects the other gbp pairs may or may not happen. If it continues its crosses then you have:

gbp/nzd, gbp/jpy, gbp/usd -- could all be buys gbp/usd could be ranging though as the usd is getting strong but not as quickly. gbp/aud would be a good buy. gbp/cad possibly could be at the end of its run but what the heck do I know about that one.

EUR is moving up and crossed the AUD so buy eur/aud. eur/cad who can say at this point I dont know whats driving the cad. eur/nzd and eur/jpy maybe future crosses but right now be cautious.

USD is crossing jpy and nzd so sell nzd/usd and buy usd/jpy

CHF follows the eur but has a lot of ground to make up before I try some of those.

CAD is in its own little world and when it corrects it would correct big time but then it may not but then it may follow the usd up but then it may not. Heck if I know but there it is on the bottom drowning.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
CSS downtrends DT

Asian currencies are on their way down. Watch Chinese news as they just plugged a quarter of a billion RMB into their banks to keep them from freezing up. This will cause the aud to dive if it continues. aud is showing weakness and could accelerate. This will also drag the jpy and nzd. jpy by design and nzd could hold its own and separate from the aud. In other words the normal pattern of nzd following the aud may not be as strong as it has been the last several months. But as others strengthen and cross the nzd I would sell the nzd.

So play those crosses and go for a ride. looks like the range period maybe coming to and end.
Down deep in the ocean goes the CAD how far???? dang if I know.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
rocketman99 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:29 am wrote:
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
This is my theory. AUS and CAD economies are rated better and safer than rest of first world, so money is parked in these countries. So before rate decision, money flows out of economy for fear of interest rate cuts. If there is no change or increase in rate, huge amounts of money flows back into the safe haven. This obviously irks the central bank governors of AUD and CAD as the appreciation of their currencies hurts exports, so they keep talking about driving down their value.

Anyway, AUD follows the same pattern - happened last month (no change - huge jump). See again next week for AUD announcement.
Yeah but the CAD is depreciating like crazy. This should help its exports unless the world economy is crashing and CAD cant sell its oil. ????
Author:  lonelytrader [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
who needs oil
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
lol
Author:  rocketman99 [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
nanningbob » Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:12 am wrote:
rocketman99 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:29 am wrote:
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
This is my theory. AUS and CAD economies are rated better and safer than rest of first world, so money is parked in these countries. So before rate decision, money flows out of economy for fear of interest rate cuts. If there is no change or increase in rate, huge amounts of money flows back into the safe haven. This obviously irks the central bank governors of AUD and CAD as the appreciation of their currencies hurts exports, so they keep talking about driving down their value.

Anyway, AUD follows the same pattern - happened last month (no change - huge jump). See again next week for AUD announcement.
Yeah but the CAD is depreciating like crazy. This should help its exports unless the world economy is crashing and CAD cant sell its oil. ????
Yep, just realised that too. Goes completely counter to what I said and as you mentioned earlier the drop in CAD makes no sense at all.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
rocketman99 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:05 am wrote:
nanningbob » Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:12 am wrote:
rocketman99 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:29 am wrote:
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
This is my theory. AUS and CAD economies are rated better and safer than rest of first world, so money is parked in these countries. So before rate decision, money flows out of economy for fear of interest rate cuts. If there is no change or increase in rate, huge amounts of money flows back into the safe haven. This obviously irks the central bank governors of AUD and CAD as the appreciation of their currencies hurts exports, so they keep talking about driving down their value.

Anyway, AUD follows the same pattern - happened last month (no change - huge jump). See again next week for AUD announcement.
Yeah but the CAD is depreciating like crazy. This should help its exports unless the world economy is crashing and CAD cant sell its oil. ????
Yep, just realised that too. Goes completely counter to what I said and as you mentioned earlier the drop in CAD makes no sense at all.
Well it makes sense to somebody with a lot of cash. So where is their logic? Even FF isnt running any real stories on this and these are the biggest moves of the week and for several months for that matter. What is the driver??
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