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10.6 EDSEL
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=3259		 Page 102 of 234
Author:  rocketman99 [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:25 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
nanningbob » Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:20 am wrote:
rocketman99 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:05 am wrote:
nanningbob » Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:12 am wrote:
rocketman99 » Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:29 am wrote:
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
This is my theory. AUS and CAD economies are rated better and safer than rest of first world, so money is parked in these countries. So before rate decision, money flows out of economy for fear of interest rate cuts. If there is no change or increase in rate, huge amounts of money flows back into the safe haven. This obviously irks the central bank governors of AUD and CAD as the appreciation of their currencies hurts exports, so they keep talking about driving down their value.

Anyway, AUD follows the same pattern - happened last month (no change - huge jump). See again next week for AUD announcement.
Yeah but the CAD is depreciating like crazy. This should help its exports unless the world economy is crashing and CAD cant sell its oil. ????
Yep, just realised that too. Goes completely counter to what I said and as you mentioned earlier the drop in CAD makes no sense at all.
Well it makes sense to somebody with a lot of cash. So where is their logic? Even FF isnt running any real stories on this and these are the biggest moves of the week and for several months for that matter. What is the driver??
Bloombergs view on why CAD is falling:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-2 ... ision.html
Author:  zTB [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
nanningbob » Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:43 am wrote:
USD strengthening has been in the news so it is just a matter of picking good spots and entering. CSS backs these kind of decisions. I dont have a problem with that. The thing that bothers me and I have complained about this before is: no decision is made and the markets goes nuts. So Canada didnt change its interest rates. OK but why would that push it 100's of pips like 300+ on the gbp/cad and others. I'd love to know so I can participate next time. It is a choice I do not understand and cant see coming. That bothers me. I dont know anything that predicts these kind of moves whether based on indis or fundamental news. But congratulations to those that got in it.
Probably the safest way is to measure the risk, and position oneself with the stop soonest after the decisive break on the daily chart; in the instance of USDCAD, no later than 8 January 2014. On lower timeframes, one has to remain on the lookout at regular intervals during the trading day, which is not easy to do.

Z
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 9:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Bloombergs view on why CAD is falling:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-01-2 ... ision.html
The problem is they are not saying why? They just state some gobbledygook and so forth.

“Despite depreciating in recent months, the Canadian dollar remains strong and will continue to pose competitiveness challenges for Canada’s non-commodity exports,” the bank said in its quarterly Monetary Policy Report."

I know how volatile up and down the gbp/cad is and if I knew what was driving it I would jump in. I also know it could drop 300 points in a flash also. If I know what the driving force was i would climb on but this is extreme volatility.

Here is a pic of past action on a weekly. As you can see it can be very volatile up and down but not just one direction only. So I do expect it to bounce violently back because that is its normal action. Believe me I am looking for that action back like it normally does.
Author:  zTB [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
The GBPCAD H4 106 Edsel chart shows that ever since the 60MA crossed over the 240MA after the July 2013 low:

• The 60MA it has not dipped below the 240MA on closing basis;
• every new 60MA closing high has been followed by a higher 60MA closing low; and
• the DP was below 240MA only for three days.

Reasons enough, I believe, to say the driver is nothing but sentiment, justified or not. May be the economic, or fundamental driver, may become known to the general public some time in the future.

Z
Author:  darshanag [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Hi.. this question is for Bob and all the experts out there.. EURUSD recorded a 100+ (and counting) pip spike for the day.. So is this just reaction to news (and therefore it will come back down) or is it an indication that bulls are taking over and its time to exit any open short positions ? Cheers !
Author:  Anthar [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Hi guys, I wanted to share some pending trades I've placed for today. I just got out of a nice setting on AUDUSD. I place this trades for comments on the entry, setting or any other aspect that could help discussion in the forum. Have a great trading day everyone!
Author:  astral77 [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:00 pm ]
Post subject:  GBP Strength
Hi BOB
At present there is a flood of good economic news in the UK. Just this week we have had 2 major news stories. The unemployment is down and car production is up after many years (decades) of decline. The feel good factor in the city of London is very high. This explains the recent strength of GBP. Moreover, due to the problems of Euro the Pound is riding high.
Kind regards,

P.S. Crime figures are down as well.

P.P.S. I have read "10.4 CSS info page.pdf" a few times. I would be grateful if you could let me know if there are there any other guides for CSS.
Author:  rocketman99 [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 8:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Oh well, EUR, NZD and CHF moves took out 240MA stops all round. This is my equity increase curve since start of January. Orange line is equity change (not account balance) and blue line is drawdown.

Everything was going quite well with NB 10.6 till last night and BANG! But as Bob says, I am still in it to trade another day. Bob, your advice has been to trade through news, but all my equity curve spikes down have been due to 240MA stop outs related to news. I got to rethink this.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
zTB » Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:57 pm wrote:The GBPCAD H4 106 Edsel chart shows that ever since the 60MA crossed over the 240MA after the July 2013 low:

• The 60MA it has not dipped below the 240MA on closing basis;
• every new 60MA closing high has been followed by a higher 60MA closing low; and
• the DP was below 240MA only for three days.

Reasons enough, I believe, to say the driver is nothing but sentiment, justified or not. May be the economic, or fundamental driver, may become known to the general public some time in the future.

Z
Yes that is what it looks like to me too. By the time we know it will be over. I am just disappointed I missed the CAD moves but that is trading. I hope you understand its not that the signal to buy wasnt there it was the massive movement that was missed. I think it is much more than sentiment the CAD is getting crushed and I dont know why.
Author:  95026862 [ Thu Jan 23, 2014 10:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.6 EDSEL
Anthar » Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:51 pm wrote:Hi guys, I wanted to share some pending trades I've placed for today. I just got out of a nice setting on AUDUSD. I place this trades for comments on the entry, setting or any other aspect that could help discussion in the forum. Have a great trading day everyone!

audusd ? you mean GBPJPY and GBPCHF
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