stevehopwoodforex.com • The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

Author:

pips400 [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 10:55 am ]

Post subject:

Re: Learning through my mistakes

ernest02 wrote:Hi Everybody!
I have been lurking on this thread feeling not ready to participate, because I see myself as scarcely qualified to be the gun carrier of the junior fox hunters, but when I see how the Captain of the Hunt slays the foxes (he surely is the King of Traders!) I got excited and decided yesterday to start testing these theories on demo trading and see if I can eventually see some light. One of my first attempts attached herewith was unsuccessful and I want to learn from my mistakes. My own opinion why this trade was unsuccessful is based on one or more of the following reasons - and I would really appreciate some feedback from anyone:
1. There were only two pushes - I should have waited for a third - although I thought that the beautiful M that formed was enough signal to enter (bit late because I was waiting for confirmation)

2. When I saw no stop hunting or long pin below the support line (drawn on the chart) before the turn in a bullish direction, I thought it was safe to hang on to the trade, because the fox had no plan to trap any bears

3. Was the setup and entry OK and this is just one of those normal situations when the trade went wrong - which can be expected to happen 10-20% of the time?

4. Is it more conservative to wait for the break of the previous leg's swing low (the support line on the chart) before entry or does this just waste pips?
Thank you CJ for your generosity in sharing your experience with us. You are just the most amazing trader.

Ernest

Hi Ernest welcome to the hunt

I'm no expert but here's my two cents worth

It looks like you were trading off the 1 hour chart, which is fine, but it's good to zoom in to 15 min (I even drop down to 5min to get an real close look) that way you can get a lot more information about price action and what's happening.

In the overall cycle to me it looks like there were two previous pushes so bias was long not short, and in the perfect world with hindsight

we'd have been looking for a stop hunt south or W before the fox heads long again. One of the ways to determine whether a push is valid is the number of pips, there need to be enough pips (around the ADR but all rules are more guidelines, so discretion is needed at all times) , so we had two valid pushes (or legs) in the weekly cycle so a third was a definate possibility.

In terms of priority, first we need the context of where we are in the overall cycle. That could be accumulation, stop hunt/manipulation, first/second/third phase or ready for the offload/reversal.

Second, we're looking for points of areas of probability were the fox is likely to do his thing. These are anything which is going to attract retail traders, ie. support/resistance, pivots, major MA like the 200 etc.

Third is timing. Typically (again no absolute rules but guidelines) we're looking for a couple of hours into the London, then the NY sessions, these tend to be the areas where fox does a lot of his work, because this is where the retails are at also.

So when we know what phase of the cycle we're in, and what areas for could be lurking, and when he's doing his trapping, we are looking out for his tracks through W M, pinbars, RRT, etc.

In your particular example there was a perfect setup going into the NY session with a W pattern, which would have taken you long.

Finally, hindsight makes experts of us all, and I may have well made the same trade. This is where experience and chart time make the difference. But the above points will help us focus in the right direction.

Hope that helps

Pips400

NZDUSD1hour.JPG

NZDUSD15min.JPG

Author:	xrismak [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 6:44 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote: pips400 wrote:Thanks again to CJ, and all the contributors on this brilliant thread. I've not been able to trade this week because I've had other work commitments, which is really frustrating because I can't wait to get my share. I have managed however to keep up with the posts and looks like a lot of light bulbs have been going on, and as a band of traders giving the fox a bit of come back, not least of all CJ who just seems to be playing and killing it at the same time - that's the future, when trading becomes routine, and the guesswork is minimized. Time on charts equals more kills Have a great weekend everyone, Monday will come soon enough. Thanks for the kind words. It's good to see that some of the people here are beginning to "see" the light and hopefully, profit from doing so. It does get easier as you go and get the chart time in. Once you realize you don't need the EA's or the systems or the indicators, you will be surprised at how much more chart time you will have. Your gain comes from the time you save in the constant hunt for things that just don't work like they should. Do yourselves a favor and quit looking. No EA or system will ever be able to trade for me like I trade for me. It does not exist nor will it ever. Funny how you start looking for that Monday open, eh? CJ EL Capitaine CJ, "Word" , you are right, I stuck a Multi Currency trading EA on one of my Empty4 Platforms, after 8 hours of trading it made about $88.00 profit, I then Procceded to trade Naked eyeballing just the Pins using the W's and the M's as Guidance and in 1 Hour 48 minutes of trading I got a Return of slightly over $660.00 on a $2300 starting Bank in a Live Account. This was last week when I posted some of my Trades if you remember. I consider myself quite fortunate to have gotten on your Naked Trading Thread at it's Inception, what even make's this fun is I am a NOVICE, I believe I haven't even learnt nothing yet as regards the Naked Trading System , When I am Confident to read and understand the Charts well enough to place about 10 trades on the same currency Pair Simultanenuosly and make a Profit Consistently, then I will be satisfied that I have truely learnt the Art of Trading for a Consistent Profit, untill then I am still a Novice but I am willing to put in the Time and Learn the Foxes Habits and Traits and whatever comes along. The Truth for me now simply means Understanding what works Consistently to Pile Profits most of the time, In Short I'd Like to be ABLE TO SPECULATE TO ACCUMULATE WITH CONFIDENCE CONSISTENTLY. Many Thanks, xrismak

Author:	Reaper [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:48 am ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
It was an unfortunate trade. I was looking short initially myself. However next week I will be going with more quality less quantity. Therefore if a setup like this comes up again with 2 previous long pushes, I might skip this pair in favour for another.

Author:	Reaper [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Just had an idea, maybe its time this thread be moved to its own sub forum. Then keep this thread for learning the principles and then have multiple threads for each currency base pair forecasts + plus anyone's journals. e.g all JPY pairs go in one thread, all USD pairs go in another etc..

Author:	fire580 [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 2:54 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Thank You to everyone who has been contributing here and of course especially CJ .....You Guys Rock. Could someone tell me if on a "M" the second swing needs to go above the first or not? And on a "W" if if the second swing goes below the first or not? Thank You

Author:	Captain Jack [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:43 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
fire580 wrote:Thank You to everyone who has been contributing here and of course especially CJ .....You Guys Rock. Could someone tell me if on a "M" the second swing needs to go above the first or not? And on a "W" if if the second swing goes below the first or not? Thank You Sometimes they do...they need to sell trend continuation to trap traders so it "may" pin higher. Sometimes it doesn't if they have already trapped a bunch of contracts on the 1st legs, especially if the 1st leg has a large, quick price swing... Each pattern has to be assessed on it's own merits. Many times, you will get a second "M" or "W", that will form after consolidation. These should not form above the last "M" high or last "W" low... Somebody got raped by the broker, not the fox on the chart below. Note the 40 pip difference in the low prices here. My guess is that somebody had a nice LONG position established and set their hard stop just below the pins...the broker spread the bid ask and took the stops before the rise in price. Instead of a nice gain, this trader took a loss on his order. This is the primary reason I don't use stops, especially with an ECN broker. I've been using some stops with the scripts I've used this past week, because I can't manage the shear number of orders manually, but when I'm trading large lot sizes, I won't use a stop. CJ

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Author:	pips400 [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 11:05 am ]
Post subject:	Re: Learning through my mistakes
ernest02 wrote:Hi Everybody! I have been lurking on this thread feeling not ready to participate, because I see myself as scarcely qualified to be the gun carrier of the junior fox hunters, but when I see how the Captain of the Hunt slays the foxes (he surely is the King of Traders!) I got excited and decided yesterday to start testing these theories on demo trading and see if I can eventually see some light. One of my first attempts attached herewith was unsuccessful and I want to learn from my mistakes. My own opinion why this trade was unsuccessful is based on one or more of the following reasons - and I would really appreciate some feedback from anyone: 1. There were only two pushes - I should have waited for a third - although I thought that the beautiful M that formed was enough signal to enter (bit late because I was waiting for confirmation) 2. When I saw no stop hunting or long pin below the support line (drawn on the chart) before the turn in a bullish direction, I thought it was safe to hang on to the trade, because the fox had no plan to trap any bears 3. Was the setup and entry OK and this is just one of those normal situations when the trade went wrong - which can be expected to happen 10-20% of the time? 4. Is it more conservative to wait for the break of the previous leg's swing low (the support line on the chart) before entry or does this just waste pips? Thank you CJ for your generosity in sharing your experience with us. You are just the most amazing trader. Ernest Sorry, forgot to say in your question, I think it's a matter of trading preference, whether you're conservative or aggressive. Personally I'm more aggressive and by the time I reach the break of the previous swing low, I may have already reached break even. I use percentages rather than pips, so I'm looking to get in a trade early as I take my SL (mental not hard SL) a couple of pips above the last SH/SL ie. if I get into a trade with say 10 pips to SL risking 1%, every 10 pips (excl spread) I also gain 1%, so risk reward works much better if I get in sooner. Checking on the 15 min chart, you could have still shorted just after the London open with the reversal and made 2% before getting out at the NY open with a the W reversal setup, then taken it long.

Author:	Captain Jack [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 3:16 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: Learning through my mistakes
ernest02 wrote:Hi Everybody! I have been lurking on this thread feeling not ready to participate, because I see myself as scarcely qualified to be the gun carrier of the junior fox hunters, but when I see how the Captain of the Hunt slays the foxes (he surely is the King of Traders!) I got excited and decided yesterday to start testing these theories on demo trading and see if I can eventually see some light. One of my first attempts attached herewith was unsuccessful and I want to learn from my mistakes. My own opinion why this trade was unsuccessful is based on one or more of the following reasons - and I would really appreciate some feedback from anyone: 1. There were only two pushes - I should have waited for a third - although I thought that the beautiful M that formed was enough signal to enter (bit late because I was waiting for confirmation) 2. When I saw no stop hunting or long pin below the support line (drawn on the chart) before the turn in a bullish direction, I thought it was safe to hang on to the trade, because the fox had no plan to trap any bears 3. Was the setup and entry OK and this is just one of those normal situations when the trade went wrong - which can be expected to happen 10-20% of the time? 4. Is it more conservative to wait for the break of the previous leg's swing low (the support line on the chart) before entry or does this just waste pips? Thank you CJ for your generosity in sharing your experience with us. You are just the most amazing trader. Ernest There's already been some good explanations and I can tell that this stuff is making sense to a lot of people here. That's good to see. I'll add a couple charts and my comments as well. We were looking at this and I had it on my watch list as well. First of all, we did not get a well formed "M"....the 2nd leg did not reach the high of the first leg and there were no long pins, where the fox is trying to stick the longs up high. This is the area where spread widens in the bid ask as this occurs but we can't see that on the chart either. It's the spread widening that helps create the long pins. As pointed out, we only had 2 pushes higher from the last peak low. It helps to look on the higher time frame charts to see the levels. On the 1H chart, you can clearly see the majority of the pins are to the low side...as well as the "W" formation...had the "M" formed, it should look more like the blue dashed lines....where the 2nd leg tests the high of the 1st leg, with longer pins on top.... On the 15M chart, you can see the range, an extension above the range, but no extension lower...by not extending lower, the fox keeps the shorts trapped from the range, not giving them a chance to get out at a lower price than their entrance. He already has what he needs and doesn't pin it low...the small "W" also forms indicating higher price.... Level 3 could go higher, but it is forming....we need to keep this pair on the watch list, look for the peak high to form and give reversal patterns. After the peak high forms, a period of consolidation will follow....this is where the next move will originate. CJ

Author:	Captain Jack [ Sat Mar 23, 2013 4:12 pm ]
Post subject:	Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Lifesys wrote:re ScaledInPendingTrades with risk based volume. CJ You have inspired me, as a mathematician & grateful learning trader, I jigged a Scaling trade Script (from tigpips FF) to suit the style we are honing. At a price on a chart, drop a series of scaled-in Pending Orders at preset intervals with SL & TP. Added features incl fixed(yellow), logarithmic(blue) or linearly(magenta) reducing Vol. for any number of child pending trades. SL & TP can be same price or relative to each trade start. ScaleVolume.gif Best feature for learners (like me) is option that Total Volume of series be %Account Risk based, so each trade is auto calculated relative to total RiskPercent, enabling safer scaling of pending orders whilst we build. I find this increases confidence to drop a series on the chart. If pending trades do not fire (some missed last night) invoking ScalingScriptCloseALL can close All(Yes) or delete PendingOnly(No) trades with corresponding MagicNumber on that sheet. Strongly advise 'ReadMe' first, if new to scaling. Guide notes attached. May be useful to others & a way of saying thanks as we work toward our 'green' chart history I'm sure that this will come in handy for a lot of traders. Thanks for taking the time to put it together for all of us. CJ

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