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| 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=919 |
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| Author: | mobthehop [ Mon Dec 24, 2012 5:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
Had this in a dusty corner of the desktop of my "travel laptop" - lol Merry Xmas to all members and their families.... Mop |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Tue Dec 25, 2012 1:30 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
If you can make 300 dollars a day, you can also lose 300 dollars a day.  That is the other side of the equation lost in these type of illustrations. |
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| Author: | xrismak [ Tue Dec 25, 2012 2:33 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
Merry Christmas Bob, I 'll just hang with your Lil lot Size Trades and Grow my Account Consistently over a Period of 15 Years and Retire before I am 68 years old.... If I finish my Money by the time I am 73 years Old which is very Unlikely, I can still come back and trade the same System for Another 7 years and Leave a Bit of Inheritance (Money) for My Great Grand Children because it will take quite a long time for me to Finish Spending whatever I amass in Finances Again.. Smart People like you make people like me think Ahead.... Merry Christmas Everyone ... xrismak.  |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Mon Dec 31, 2012 3:02 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
My 2013 easy trade pick for winter and spring. Sell, Sell, Sell, JPY on every retracement. Here is a post I placed at FF. THis is going to be like the Euro during the fall of 2011. My comments. Well look at your monthly charts and you will see a very clear picture. Every single JPY cross is at major resistance line or has just broken a major resistance line. A fundamental rule of trading is follow your indicators unless a major fundamental is in play then indicators are useless. When governments make major policy changes, like Japan is about to do, you go with the fundamental change no matter what your indicators say. Concerning JPY if you look at the monthly chart the USD/JPY is way oversold and is going to be corrected by government policy. NZD/JPY just broke a major monthly R line and is going up. GBP/JPY is way and is going to correct and is at a major R line. EUR/JPY just broke a monthly R line and is going up to the next one. AUD/JPY is at a major monthly R line and the CAD/JPY and CHF/JPY just broke theirs. Whenever you see major shift in government policy you dont ignore it you go with it. Dont believe me check out eur/usd monthly when George Bush became president and where it ended 8 years later. It has ranged between two points ever since with Obama. Japan is going to correct the JPY position and no indicator is able to fight major government policy. I will be treating the JPY like I did the EURO in the Fall of 2011 look for sells on every pull back. I didnt take one single buy trade on the Euro for almost 6 months and had only 6 losing trades during that time. I will be selling the JPY every chance I get over the next several months when all these R lines are broken. |
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| Author: | madpipa [ Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
As usual Bob you manage to say pages in a few well chosen words. I have heard similar before, but never put so bluntly: I will be studying the JPY charts to see more detail of what you say, but not tonight. Time for a brew!!  Thanks to all for an educational & very enjoyable forum. Happy New Year to all & I hope we all take our share of pips from the market next year. Cheers, Mick |
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| Author: | effluvium [ Mon Dec 31, 2012 9:24 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
Bob, When you say you will be selling JPY you mean you will buy all JPY Pairs (USDJPY, EURJPY,NZDJPY etc...) Correct ? |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Mon Dec 31, 2012 10:54 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
Yes you will be buying since JPY is never the head pair on any trade. I will post some pics tomorrow so you will know what to look for. Basically what is happening in Japan is their population is aging and all that retirement money the govt. has used to finance every thing, almost 230% debt to GDP ratio, is basically gone. I dont see anyone on the outside loaning money to Japan, so to pay their citizens back their retirement funds, which they now need to use, they will have to severely depreciate their currency to do so. They now have no choice. |
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| Author: | ciliano [ Mon Dec 31, 2012 7:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
A couple articles to support Bob's position on Yen weakness: Relations with China are likely to be strained with China for the near future, making a Japanese recovery less likely: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-12-3 ... inevitable Speculation about Japan currency devaluation: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-3 ... n-yen.html |
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| Author: | Nipponho [ Tue Jan 01, 2013 6:22 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
Happy New Year Bob! I was using a EA based on a strategy that you had abandoned a few years ago, 100/40 with martingaled entries. The one using stochastics OB OS. I was short at level 2 (Martingale 2X) for AJ at 86.43 & 86.81 when Japan side threatened unlimited JPY easing. Fortunately I immediately disabled the EA. If I had not done so, 死, crushed to death. AJ closed yesterday at 90.17. Another 20 odd pips more to go before it would qualify to be “death trade”. It will not wipe out my account as I spread out on 5 pairs, but the loss is painful. So devastating to read your above post on JPY, I have to start planning for least painful exit. What a way to start the new year  I am now halfway through reading your old FF thread 100/80. I like the idea of trading a basket of 10+ pairs using pennies on a $3k account and closing all positions everyday so that we will never encounter death trade. Question : why was the strategy abandoned? It appears quite safe & yet very profitable. 5% per month looks very very safely attainable. |
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| Author: | nanningbob [ Tue Jan 01, 2013 8:36 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: 10.3 SCALPER/RANGE TRADE SYSTEM |
I got out of range trading with the Euro Crisis for good in the fall of 2010. There is just too much sudden market volatility for consistent gains in range trading. Usually you had won more than enough to cover the occasional bad series of trades but with countries over-leveraged with debt, chf and jpy bank interventions, Congress unable to compromise to get things done and who knows what else, I just couldnt make range trading consistently profitable through out the year. I think 2013 could very well be one of the most volatile years for currency trading. Maybe the USA will get control of its govt. debt and stabilize the dollar. With its oil reserves now coming into play over the next 5 years and its non government debt pretty well shaken out, you can look at a slow but steady increase in its economy and reduction of its debt over the next decade. Not going to be easy but doable. Aud, Nzd, Chf, currencies could be stable especially if China bounces back. But the EUR, GBP, and JPY have some real serious issues that could make currency trading just shake your head. Especially the JPY. They have a debt to GDP ratio that has never been recovered from in world economic history. They dont have any resources they can sell on the market to pay that off. If the world's 3rd biggest economy does a dive, which is almost inevitable at this point the shock waves will affect everyone. If a little country like Greece can shake Europe imagine what happens if Japan economy sinks. Even f the EURO and GBP stay stabilized there are just too many explosive issues out there. Israel and Iran is gonna be a showdown at some point. North Korea is rumored to have rockets that can reach the US now. Japan and China are scrambling jets over a stupid rock in the Pacific that no one even lives on. Vietnam, India, Russia, and China are about ready to knock heads over water rights. The US can get dragged into several situations overseas. I just dont see enough stability in the world right now to range trade. So I have abandoned the concept. You need stable economic growth like we had before 2008 to make range trading viable. My theories on range trading were based on how the market behaved back then. I dont see that happening anytime in 2013 or after for now. |
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