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Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=5238		 Page 13 of 17
Author:  zafh [ Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
RisklessPips » Thu Sep 28, 2017 5:35 pm wrote:
What loss at this point? At BE you are winning. New trade is added so 2 trades in the game. No loss yet.

What you seem to be describing are whipsaws of 100 pips. No doubt they happen. But 50 on the trot? Not in my experience to date. Price will move in your direction beyond a TP often enough (or recover into that direction after a correction) to make this an academic discussion more than a practical reality. IMHO.

Charles
I was talking about the loss of the seed trade. Assuming the seed trade doesn't get to break even it will be a loss? The WV trades goal is to try and cancel the loss before the SL of the seed trade is hit. Are you now adding to the WV trade after the seed trade stop loss is hit.



Your original seed is now in reversal. It will hit it’s stop loss at some time in the indeterminable future.

However, as we have discussed on this thread, prices move at a pedestrian pace most of the time. This means that before the seed hits it’s SL you have TIME to mitigate the loss by adding new trades each time price confirms its new direction.
My crude understanding was was enter a trade and if it goes wrong enter multiple trades in the opposite direction so the net total of all trades is positive before the SL of the original trade is hit. Each of the WV trades is moved to break even before the next one is entered to limit risk.
Author:  RisklessPips [ Thu Sep 28, 2017 6:40 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
zafh » Thu Sep 28, 2017 8:22 pm wrote:
I was talking about the loss of the seed trade. Assuming the seed trade doesn't get to break even it will be a loss?

The seed will be in loss at ONLY at SL
The WV trades goal is to try and cancel the loss before the SL of the seed trade is hit.
This was correct thinking at the start. But please read the post where I had an Eureka moment and realised this was no longer necessary because GTWV is continuously in the market.
Are you now adding to the WV trade after the seed trade stop loss is hit.
Yes. This is how it now works. This is not how it started it has evolved to this point but the process is documented in this thread.
My crude understanding was was enter a trade and if it goes wrong enter multiple trades in the opposite direction so the net total of all trades is positive before the SL of the original trade is hit. Each of the WV trades is moved to break even before the next one is entered to limit risk.
This was the initial process which has now evolved.

Charles
Author:  zafh [ Thu Sep 28, 2017 7:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
Ah OK.

I must have missed that. I will review the thread again. Thank you for your time Charles.

Zaf
Author:  RisklessPips [ Fri Sep 29, 2017 4:54 am ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
GTWV with ADX HGI & RR - Bug Report and fix

Testing is going well but a serious error has been identified when adding SL for shorts. (This was introduced by me when correcting previous errors :arrrg: )

If you have the latest code go to line 1700 and near 1708 look for

Code: Select all

     if (AtrVal == 0)
                stop = NormalizeDouble(OrderOpenPrice() + AtrVal,
                    digits);
Change it to

Code: Select all

 if (AtrVal == 0)
                 stop = NormalizeDouble(OrderOpenPrice() + (
                    MissingStopLoss / factor), digits);
Charles
Author:  RisklessPips [ Fri Sep 29, 2017 7:33 am ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
Results GTWV on H4 - EOW 29th Sept 2017


Results with AUDJPY - I no longer trade this pair - it is included for sake of completeness since account opened..

Cumulative results :( (i.e from start of open demo account to date - init balance 500 USD, 1:100)
End of last week - Expectancy per dollar traded = -3.3%, Expectancy per trade -0.13 (Dataset 474 trades)
End this week - Expectancy per dollar traded = -4.7%, Expectancy per trade -0.18 (Dataset 510 trades)

Weekly results :(
Last week - Expectancy per dollar traded = +7.4%, Expectancy per trade +0.23 (Dataset 65 trades)
This week - Expectancy per dollar traded = -19.4%, Expectancy per trade -0.93 (Dataset 36 trades)

Progress Report :
Cumulative results - The cumulative expectancy figures are worse at -4.7% as against -3.3% return per dollar traded last week. One explanation for this is my mistake whilst testing new variants of the trade manager. I loaded a test version of the code onto this account by mistake and it opened a trade with lot size 0.03 which I didn't notice until the thing closed for a big loss !

Weekly results
The weekly results are in negative territory for expectancy down on last week from +7.4% to -19.4% per dollar traded. This big swing is somewhat explained by the big hit the account took resulting from my mistake.


Results without AUDJPY

Cumulative results :(
End of last week - Expectancy per dollar traded = +1.2%, Expectancy per trade +0.05 (Dataset 412 trades)
End this week - Expectancy per dollar traded = -0.8%, Expectancy per trade -0.03 (Dataset 448 trades)

Weekly results :(
Last week - Expectancy per dollar traded = +7.4%, Expectancy per trade +0.23 (Dataset 65 trades)
This week - Expectancy per dollar traded = -19.4%, Expectancy per trade -0.93 (Dataset 36 trades)

Progress Report :

Cumulative results
Expectancy results are negative this week at -0.8% per dollar traded. This means I lost 8 cents per dollar traded.

Weekly results
The weekly results at -19.4% per dollar traded is explained by the comments above for weekly with AUDJPY. (These will be the same because I am no longer trading AUDJPY)

Monthly Summary and plans for next month

As at end September from set up with an initial balance of 500 USD this account has lost 5 cents per dollar traded or 18 cents per trade. This is because of the challenges that had to be overcome as detailed below.

I am happy with this result, but recognise there is much room for improvement which is why I am making changes to the October test plans

Challenges during September

Significant logic and coding changes have been made to the GTWV trade manager since this account was created and the manager applied to all instruments (including initially the AUDJPY)

The manager has evolved from one that opened trades on BE as well as managed SL / TP additions and trails into a very versatile and flexible multi dimensional manager that

1) Does the above
2) Now also opens trades at SL and TP
3) Takes in two price condition signals
4) Uses the signals to apply 6 different management protocols to open trades
5) Now has the capacity to use RR
6) EDIT - As of next release the manager will allow user controlled closure of trades IF the price condition starts ranging as identified by ADX or HGI AND the trade is already in profit.

Clearly these logic and processing changes have presented challenges in coding and testing for bugs (a task that is ongoing) - These challenges have inevitably impacted the results obtained on the account.

In addition over the month I recognized the original traded instruments were inappropriate because of the large range of movement they exhibited which was "too rich" for the risk level I am taking on such a small account.

For these reasons I will discontinue this particular test as of October and initiate a new test with new instruments and the latest (less buggy) code applied.

I will make weekly reports on close of week Fridays.

Charles
Author:  Wavegarrick [ Sun Oct 01, 2017 1:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
Hi Charles,

"Being in the Trenches",
I've had a long and hard look at the words you describe in your thread. Powerful words indeed and so true. I know, I slept and fought in the trenches in my younger days, a warfare I did not want to partake in but something I was forced to do. The longer you stay in the trenches the more chance of getting into harms way.

I believe the same applies to trading. Why not be a sniper? Get into the trenches, make the kill and get out.
Something I am trying now in my trading, thanks to your thoughts.

I have gone back over many Ea's and Re assesed my original thinking and believe I am making headway.

I hope to share at some point.

Many thanks
Leon
Author:  RisklessPips [ Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
Wavegarrick » Sun Oct 01, 2017 3:09 pm wrote:Hi Charles,

"Being in the Trenches",
I've had a long and hard look at the words you describe in your thread. Powerful words indeed and so true. I know, I slept and fought in the trenches in my younger days, a warfare I did not want to partake in but something I was forced to do. The longer you stay in the trenches the more chance of getting into harms way.

I believe the same applies to trading. Why not be a sniper? Get into the trenches, make the kill and get out.
Something I am trying now in my trading, thanks to your thoughts.

I have gone back over many Ea's and Re assesed my original thinking and believe I am making headway.

I hope to share at some point.

Many thanks
Leon
Hey Leon

Good to hear from you buddy.

Trench or sniper ? I have some thoughts on this but I'd like to hear from other people on this before I comment.

Your comment raises the psychological question of beliefs which goes to the heart of how different people view and approach the markets and beliefs are absolutely key to what you achieve in those markets.

Comments anyone?

Charles
Author:  peterke [ Sun Oct 01, 2017 8:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
Being in the trenches or being a sniper. - Good question

I think this question is also tied to what type of trader you want to be Is it an "autotrader" using ea's or a manual trader.

My experience is that - its very difficult to build an effective ea that is also a sniper. Its proven to be slightly easier to develop ea's that "remain in the trenches" as concepts like recovery, grids etc allow for less precise entry and exit rules.

It should be possible to build an ea that has a short term approach - enter the market, makes a profit and is be out of the market quickly. However I haven't come close to developing any or come across any that can do this with a level of consistent profitably. However manual scalping is profitable for some.

rgds
Peter
Author:  RisklessPips [ Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
GTWV Trade Manager ADX HGI & RR v2.0 - Released

Having done a great deal of testing I am satisfied the processing is working as per the logic behind it. Question is does the logic itself stand up ? :smile: :smile: Time will tell !

This code is now available on page 6 GTWV Trade Manager Available Here.

In addition to the other numerous documented features of this trade manager, it now also allows you to set a switch so that if prices start to range and your traded pair is flat or in profit, the manager will close it down. This allows you to exit a ranging market if in profit and concentrate on trending situations (Rads and trends)

The code is numbered v2.0 to underscore the many and significant changes that were introduced over the past month from the initial v1.0

Charles
Author:  mjws00 [ Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Gravy Trains & Weather Vanes
Charles,

It's a pleasure watching you work through this, as your posts are interesting and well written. If nothing else you are building an interesting trade management tool.

I've probably read your thread a dozen times now looking for the edge. The philosophy is fun. The trade management has pros and cons. I am trying to distill why you think this will win. You have a few simple bits of logic that I can see:

1) You are trying to enter in the direction of stacked moving averages. Which we know will work ok in a trending market, and get utterly destroyed in choppy or ranging conditions. Your win rate, and losses larger than wins is pretty much textbook.

2) You are manually using support and resistance to confirm or reverse your trade.

3) You've added indicators now as filters and you've picked strong ones. But hard to say if they are +EV over the longer term when market conditions change.

The rest is trade management, which is almost never an edge in and of itself. It adds no EV, it can only help you maximize what is already there. You can dial in Stacking, Drawdown, SL, TP, BE+ jumps etc over time.

Some thoughts for conversation:

What purpose does the first trade serve, if it is only a pointer to SR, and something you literally trade against later almost 50% of the time? A dot on the chart would tell you the same thing without trade costs or drawdown. Feeler trades CAN be awesome if and when they connect a trader to a market. I often enter light and pyramid in, because it connects me to price and helps with clarity and focus. But they are NOT pseudo random entries.

If you are reacting correctly to SR those trading decisions are your edge. You only have continuation or reversal at that point, and if you can spot and trade those zones profitably you will be successful. In fact you will be trading with the very best. All of CJ and Bob's work are pretty much to that end. Most successful large accounts trade this way, not to mention banks, hedge funds etc.

Do Gravy Trains and Weather Vanes add value? Or have you learned to trade SR and built a tool that will help you with money and trade management? A few simple rules and your skill, brain, and experience may yield better results than automation and trying to curve fit a system to a market that always changes.

Good Luck, it looks like you are enjoying yourself. This is truly one of the best games.

Mike
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