Just wanted to take a moment to thank you for all the advice, help and education you are sharing on this thread - Thank You...... I am listening and wait patiently for your updates.
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| Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=651 |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 3:21 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
So can the SDC help us with a top determination. I think so. I think this is interesting. I have taken a short on the 4 hour chart with agreement from MACD, Pivot and the 4 Hour Slope. A MACD crossing of the zero line is correlated to a cross of the Daily pivot and the Weekly pivot, again a nice finding as Mop observed previously. A bearish MACD gives aggrement to the 4 Hour slope. Day slope is still .8 but I think we will find this always true sometimes on a sharp reversal. This is where 4 hour slope is very useful and the SDC helps a lot. The 4 hour slope has been negative for 5 days since the 19th. Hourly slope is interesting but it is of more value intraday while 4 hour slope can lead daily slope in a direction change. When we look at the Daily chart now we see that the MACD has a cross and there are 3 red bars on the histogram. By waiting for more than one red bar we play it safe to initiate a short as a validation of a reversal. The daily slope line looks to have peaked and is now sloping downward. So now let us look at the weekly chart. The Fibonacci retraced to the 78.6 extreme mark from the last significant top on the 2 year down turn of the EURUSD from the 2/19/12 peak seems very significant. The MACD and signal line remains Bearish. So this is a multi-time frame approach to placing a short on the EURUSD based on multiple supporting signals. The MACD showing multiple time frame agreement. The MACD cross coinciding with a Pivot cross of daily down over weekly. Fibonacci retrace making it to the extreme 78.6 mark. Negative 4 hour slope now for 5 days supporting a reversal. SDC position on the daily peaked above the 1.618 fibinacci SDC channel. We are also below the 1.30 Psychological level. The fundamental out look in the EUR zone is gloomy for the start of the week. The effect on EUR strength by QE3 is thought to be waning. The Baluda slopestrength indicator has the JPY .58 and USD .13 gaining strength on the 4 hour time period and EUR -.26 losing strength on the 4 hour. A multi-time period trading approach is powerful and supports a small amount of powerful indicators and keeps things simple. Add a little fundamental outlook to the approach and trading on any time frame can be achieved. At some point I hope to simplify this into a simple system but for now I just need to trade and learn how best to present an overall approach. So I have place a short at 1.2935 with stop above the Psychological level at 1.3035. Just a 100 pip stop. I will manage this trade as a 4 hour swing trade but evaluate for profit taking at each pivot crossing. If the market turns dramatically bearish this week I will look to leave this running as a position trade until there is a sign of a retrace. If it becomes the opposite and a sideways market I will take profit and trade some intraday shorting ralleys until a new opportunity emerges for a longer trade. Although we may see some improvement in volatility this fall it is my thought that a longer term strategy may not be as tedious as a day trading strategy. That may be one ingredient in making an over all strategy to trade any time period base on market conditions. Learning to trade based on a perspective of at least 3 time frames can allow for trading of any time period. That is what the SDC did on the intraday periods of 60, 30 and 15 minutes. A move back above the Pychological level might invalidate the trade based on market fundamentals. So a change to risk on trading again would be a possible sign of this occurring but would not invalidate an overall strategy of selling ralleys unless there was a move above the 78.6 retrace of the Weekly chart. It would follow that even some moderate gains in EURUSD would probably lead more to a side ways market and a stall at this point. I would expect the Daily slope to fall under .4 in a few days to a week. With the Daily pivot below the Weekly pivot it is more likely we are seeing along with other indications a bearish move of EURUSD resuming its two year fall. Many people feel that the EUR is way to overvalued and should be in the teens based on overall fundamentals of the EUR zone. Risk on trading would not necessarily lead to EUR strength to clarify a thought. We could have strong movement of both NZD and AUD and EUR continued weakness. EURAUD also might be a very good short position trade and maybe even a more sustained long term trade than a EURUSD trade. |
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| Author: | godman [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 4:17 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
slowkey, do u have a myfxbook link showing ur trading track record using what you've laid out on this thread? |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Tue Sep 25, 2012 5:47 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
No Post 1 "This is a setup for analysis of intraday daily range and how the setup might be used to develop trades from the analysis." It was never meant to be a systematic trading method as much as how a simple analysis could be reached from a few powerful indicators. I encouraged from the get go beginners to trade the Naningbob 10.2 strategy. As time moved along I shared how I traded my analysis. Now I seek to try to develop it into a simple multi-time frame approach. I always said this was an approach for intermediate traders to evaluate intraday time periods and now I am trying to extend that to all time periods. I think if you are looking for an approach that is KISS simple and has been validated as a quality method for beginners you should be learning Naningbob 10.2. I think anyone who comes to this thread with any experience of successful trading will be able to judge appropriately if there is value here. I do not plan to prove anything by using Myfxbook. I do not mean this as derogatory but if traders need validation of a trading approach by Myfxbook I do not think they are getting what trading is all about. The ability to trade successfully is almost entirely dependent on your mastery of the psychology of trading and not some method or indicator cross. That is what drives the development of bots because many find the process so daunting. Myfxbook can be of help in evaluating bots. May have some personnel significance for finding weaknesses in your own trading and a tool for record keeping. It will have zero impact on your ability to trade the analysis here or any other system. I have spent hundreds of hours reading about Forex from both books and forums over the last 5 years. Much of what I have learned can be summed up in this statement from post 1. Learning this little truth will do more for you than any Myfxbook account. "One thing I have learned about trading is this. Always Respect Price. There is no indicator or system that has anything on price. The market does not care about you and when price is going against you .... You are just wrong. Sit on your hands until you are WILLING to do the right thing. Learning this little lesson has done more for my trading than any system or indicator. " |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Wed Sep 26, 2012 6:05 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
So I originally entered the trade at 1.2935 but later I got closed out at a BE of 10 pip gain. I did not realize the profile I was using had the MPTM expert turned on. So I unloaded MPTM and reentered at 1.2903. So this is where I stand today. Since about the middle of July volatility and daily range have been just reduced significantly. That is why I think this is a nice time to move up to entering some swing trades and even position trades. It is a little more relaxing approach to the present conditions. We have seen some nice moves later in the week on Thursdays and Fridays but it has been at times dismal through the beginning of the weeks. I am at about 40 pips into profit. With the London session closed today day trading EUR/USD looks like it would have been a yawn with a 77 pip top to bottom range. So we still see a solid -.59 4 hour slope and the hourly slope which I have started to think of as an intraday slope is at -.52. The Day slope is now .62. The pivots remain aligned for a continued down trend. The next weekly pivot is S2 about 90 pips down. USD news mixed but generally firm this week. The 4 hour Baluda slope-strength indicator has the JPY at 72 and USD at 42 with every other pair negative. Certainly risk off trading with AUD the most negative. I think the plan so far a good one. Day slope has continued to drop. The interaction of 4 hour slope with day slope would seem to be a good measure of how to approach bottom and tops because Day slope is just not going to change as rapidly as 4 hour slope. So it would be nice if we could find a nice definition of what a top and bottom might be in terms of slope. If you are reading this and if you never learned to trade Nanningbob 10.2 than you are totally missing much what I am talking about here because I am borrowing from Bobs slope and pivot concepts. Slope is powerful and if I can nail down tops and bottom than position trading becomes much easier within my setup. The SDC is a huge help and the MACD is solid especially the higher time periods. A Fibonacci drawn on the weekly time period is powerful. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Thu Sep 27, 2012 11:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
I want to speak to where I am with this trade. The most fundamental thing you can do to help you master the psychology of trading is having a plan. I think that is one of the reason Bobs 10.2 has been so successful, that with in his structure of trading is a very successful plan. When you learn his technique enough to be successful with it you know what to do in all circumstances trend or no trend. Slope and pivots make that very powerful. In reality he uses only a few indicators which is a key to successful trading. So with in his trading method one can always know what one should be doing. Risk is well defined as any good method of trading should be. Now what a more experienced trader will master is the technique of creating plans with a few indicators that might be a little more fun for that person to trade. I love my indicators. I love what they can tell me. They give me confidence but with out a good plan going into the trade it would be difficult to stay in it. I like the process of breaking down the charts and creating a plan. So it is a good time to review where I am today and that is what I will do in the next post. In so doing this I will explain how I deal with the psychological issues of trading. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Sep 28, 2012 12:25 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
First key to a successful plan for me was to base the original plan through the prism of a 3 time period approach. My plan had to work on 3 time periods. There had to be some agreement and support. So I used the weekly, Daily and 4 hour to look at that. I had to know what kind of trade I was going to make. In this case it was a swing trade that was going to be reassessed as a position trade. That would take into account both the strength of trend and fundamentals for instance news. I said I would monitor it through the 4 hour time frame. I of course have a secondary desire to research how 4 hour slope and daily slope interact at the top and bottoms of the daily chart price patterns, what happens with reversals. I said I had a 100 pips of risk I was willing to take on. I had a stop at 1.1035 and when I got stopped out at break even by accident by leaving a MPTM expert on one of my charts I reentered and at 1.3003 and I subtracted 10 pips from my stop to put it at 1.3025 which puts it above the 1.3000 psychological level and above the weekly pivot. So a break of those two would invalidate the trade. I like tight stops and this is reasonably tight for a trade that is a swing trade that I hope can become a position trade. Step number one in reducing my psychological stress is fixing risk. A lot of that depends on the plan. As you make trades by plans you get better at them and you can define the risk by the actual plan. Part of that plan is where I think the trade is invalidated. That is where I put my stop. So I will look now at the 4 hour chart. The hourly slope was actually positive most of the day and 4 hour Baluda slope-strength indicator had overall the NZD as strongest currency and the AUD strengthening some with the JPY and USD loosing ground to what appears to have been risk on trading through the earlier part of the day. However really nothing dramatic happening. The best place to read slope accurately with this Baluda multi-time period True TMA indicator is on the hourly chart which I move to next. Just one note though. The slope of the 4 hour SDC is still bullish. That will change I think just like Daily slope. The look back has a lot to do with that and next week it should look much different. The hourly slope is in line with recent price. There is a pull back to the 1.27 channel. Hourly slope is at 35 so if you want to think of this as intraday slope it has been positive. The 4 hour slope has backed off up to -17. The Daily slope is continuing to decrease and at .57. The pull back is not deep and the 1 hour SDC makes it easy to note that just a few days ago the slope had pulled back to the 1.27 channel before. For the last 5 hours the market has been sideways. So lets look at the Daily chart. The daily still just eyeballing it looks fine. Today has been a positive day and has closed out a positive Daily candle as I write this but nothing here to be to dismayed about. This is pretty normal that we will have some pull backs in a down trend. So I will finish in the next post. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Sep 28, 2012 12:40 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
So here is my problem. When I first looked at this trade today I panicked. I felt I was at the point of a dilemma : is a problem offering two possibilities, neither of which is practically acceptable. I thought I might have to get out of the trade at a loss and I was a little miffed I had let 50 pips of profit pass me by yesterday. However this is the psychology of trading we must always have to be dealing with. Our primitive parts of our brain will just start to kick in and eat away at our will to stay in a trade. So I got a hold of my self and went back through the plan. There was no dilemma. Nothing in my plan had been invalidated. I had defined my risk at the outset and I had not even come close to stopping out in fact if you go from where my original entry was I would have been still positive pips. The importance of a plan is psychological. Stick by your plan. Trade your plan. Even if I get stopped out eventually I will gain in the long run by doing the work. I will have many more successful plans than looser. You can not listen to the primitive parts of your brain when you are trading. You must master the doubts with good plans. So as I trade this I am monitoring this on 3 time periods of the hourly, 4 hour and Daily. The 4 hour is the main time period I am looking at. If I was to place another long term trade it might be on EUR/AUD. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Sep 28, 2012 4:08 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
So I stayed in the trade and this AM we see broad USD and JPY strength and when you see this like this it is clearly risk off trading. I like this little dashboard from the Indi section of 10.2. I sort the pairs by Pow(H4) and absolute value. When you do this it shows the strong currencies by color, Red would be the quote and Green the Base. Looking from top to bottom you can see that the Dollar and Yen are the strong currencies during this last 4 hour of the London session. When you look at the lower power numbers it gives you a good idea of the 30 minute and hour movement. It is a nice little indicator to help you understand risk off trading and risk on trading when you use it this way. It takes some getting use to and you need to learn some nuance but there is no nuance today. We are clearly risk off. The daily chart shows us coming down to the 200 moving average. It will be interesting to see if we can blow by that. Staying in the trade was the right thing to do and I am now about 50 plus pips again. I will stay in this over the weekend. So I started this trade on Monday and we have not seen a lot of movement but Daily slope is now .37 and continues its slide. The daily S1 is trying to hold at the round number 1.2850 level but when we drop below this it is 60 pips to the daily S2. The MACD after resetting itself back towards the base line will probably cross back down. It is common to see resets on the MACD and when you use it you learn to spot them. The hourly chart shows the more dramatic move from where we were yesterday. Some people refer to Friday these days as risk off Friday. Traders are a little cautious about leaving trades on during the weekend when the EUR zone remains so fragile. The hourly clearly shows how the S1 and round number are trying to hold the Bears from going lower. The MACD line is across the base line and there good momentum on the histogram. Intraday slope is -42 down from as high as .70 yesterday. 4 hour slope is -14 and down from as high as zero yesterday. |
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| Author: | fire580 [ Fri Sep 28, 2012 7:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
Just wanted to take a moment to thank you for all the advice, help and education you are sharing on this thread - Thank You...... I am listening and wait patiently for your updates. |
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| Author: | slowkey [ Fri Sep 28, 2012 10:47 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: Slowkeys Intraday Setup Using Slope Strength and Diff |
Thanks fire for the kind words. |
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