The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[Kruspe]

Hi guys.. I made a quick analysis on GBPUSD.. I draw everything on chart, it should be clear. They made 3 pushes down.. also 3 days cycle ends and we could expect reversal move for the rest of the week. What do you think ? I´m gonna check other pairs.

[mobthehop]

kruspe, quick question - how do you draw your consolidation area - any fixed measure or just covering the majority of candles? I am in GU long as well

Mop

[Kruspe]

mobthehop, quick answer ... no, there is no fixed measure - just covering the candles in range. My eyes are the only tool :-D

[Kruspe]

And what about EURCAD... finally up ?

[mjws00]

I'm not inspired today ... What about you guys ?

It looks like they ran it down very nicely to test the lows EU, EJ.

EJ, They didn't need a traditional stop hunt out of Asia. They cleared the board all day yesterday. Consolidated out of NY, blew out the box in Asia. Just pinned the top of the box like they did Monday. Beautiful Pin and W at the bottom of this test. Here you are buying the second leg on the higher TF as well. They also faked low to trap Breakout traders... but all that could be for profit taking. I would cover and wait. Super tight trade north here is fine, but keep an eye open... I was sleeping.

EU was nicer as a stop hunt. Frankie shoved it down. London answered. Perfect pins at the bottom. Perfect Pins at the top. Set the trend for the day and just run it down to retest Monday's bottom. They've hit the brakes and are shaking it out a bit.

Be very careful getting long here on these. There is a TON of selling pressure. They aren't trapping shorts at all yet. Just run it up enough to get bulls on board... cut them off at the knees and spike it down. That shakes out the weakest bears, but they aren't shifting away from them and running it against. These are classic LH, LL formations, with nasty spikes and gaps.

I'm probably paranoid, but waiting for a massive burst to the upside on YEN weakness. JPY pairs up. Everyone and their dog seems to be thinking BOJ couldn't get it done. It was all hype. It was overcooked to the upside with the long runs.... too many weak dumb shorts are aboard for them not to take this money at some point soon. I'll wait till it starts to print. But I am primed

Hope the pips were green. Have real work to clean up before holidays, so capitalized on sleep. Beautiful work done last night though. Definitely worthy of pictures had I time.

Mike

[Fable]

Hi guys !

As I try to trade "naked" and to find patterns.

Here is something (maybe, I'm no pro) interresting on the EJ (H1):

I see a Wolfe wave (in red) + some acceleration (in blue, a possible second WW forming ?) + also some double bottom.

What's your opinion on this ?


Very best regards, hope it's not complete bullshit.


Fable

ps: I just saw that I didn't take the price on the screenshot, sorry about that I just closed the chart.

Red Wave 4 is around 123.8

[mjws00]

Doesn't look like BS to me, Fable. I haven't studied wolfe waves much beyond a glance at slipshod's work. But that chart is pretty close to what I see happening.

My only concern is D could easily be a stop hunt coming out of asia. E could run pretty deep. I wouldn't be surprised if it takes a bigger bottom to really get momentum to head up. Stick a HS with E as the head. We have a right shoulder to build. Then a shot upward.

I like the D->E trade. I'm pretty quick to jump in front of a train, but I'll wait for a second leg to paint or scalp long at E. Missing out on that first entry that gets tested hard and grabbing the second is something I am trying to get better at.

Nice chart.

Mike

[mjws00]

This pic is why I haven't jumped in front of the train. But I don't usually predict too far out. I am good to go long or short on any given day. Feels to me like this runs a little lower on EUR weakness and low liquidity before it turns. They can still get more WEAK shorts on board to burn.

Mike

[Kruspe]

Hi,

another possible trade setup.. GBPCAD, 3 pushes down again, I expect some consolidation during the Asia session, some false breakout (I would really appreciate something like W pattern ) and then go up ?

[Captain Jack]

This pic is why I haven't jumped in front of the train. But I don't usually predict too far out. I am good to go long or short on any given day. Feels to me like this runs a little lower on EUR weakness and low liquidity before it turns. They can still get more WEAK shorts on board to burn.

Mike

My thoughts on EJ...created back in January......

CJ