Your prayers paid off...
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| The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=5598 |
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| Author: | Gertje [ Tue Mar 12, 2019 11:53 am ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
Your prayers paid off... |
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| Author: | cozybooks [ Tue Mar 12, 2019 12:27 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
Steve is absolutely right. On the weekly chart, the last 24 hours is a tiny blip. With a 5-year Sixths line (Weekly Sixths set to 260), we're barely above the bottom gold line, still far from the midline, and miles from those upper lines. 5,500 pip range top to bottom (which took place over 27 months). If we're selling down here, we need lot sizes that can survive a few thousand pip move or a really good hedge plan if price moves against us!  How would you like to have been trading the 5-year sixths line? Begin selling in 2014 around 1.66. Twenty months straight of selling until you start buying in 2016 somewhere around the 1.44 level. Then you still have to weather a 2700 pip drop before a true rally in 2017. On the other hand, if you waited for price to close above the gold line to buy, after buying at 1.44 in 2016, you would waited over a year before placing more buy trades up in the 1.28 level. Weekly chart is great though for seeing the big picture. Easy to see how the 2018 rally fell just short of the 5 year midline. Hope everyone gets to see Mr. Green!  |
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| Author: | SteveHopwood [ Tue Mar 12, 2019 8:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
It can be useful to have a sense of perspective and to understand this: markets go up; then they go down; then they go up again; then they go down again................ Have a look at this chart of the GU: Look at the earliest date on the chart - 1975. Look how many dollars the pound bought in the late 1960/early 70's. The UK economy turned into a basket case after that. I was in my 20's during the 1970's and remember it well. Manufacturing industries lost all their international competitiveness and collapsed. Vast industries formerly employing millions of people closed down as jobs moved abroad. Inflation was standard at 30% a year. Yet the pound rallied massively. The market makers were ignoring the UK economy. Look at the early 1980's and that all-time low. Once upon a time the pound could buy c.2.7 dollars. In the early 1980' commentators were talking in panicked breaths about the pound reaching 'parity' with the dollar i.e. 1 pound buying 1 dollar. I know now what I did not know then; that everybody trades internationally in dollars. The impact of sterling's devaluation was already catastrophic. Fast forward to the high just after 2005. I had discovered the ease of trading Forex by then. The market was going up and up and up. I was a member of one of those instant-trading forums back then, about a million years before I started to actually learn anything. The owner announced, "I have my sell stops in place." "He is mad" I thought to myself and continued to buy. And blew yet another account. I was quite good at that back in the day.  Then a recovery. Then a collapse again above the 2005 year marker. That was the cataclysmic collapse that followed The Crash. The market is now forming the last leg of a W so it is only going one way eventually. As I have often remarked, "eventually" can be a long time coming - and we are talking years here. In the meantime, we trade our leg of the cycle within the cycle within the cycle within the cycle that we are trading and hope that our cycle completes quickly. There will be blips as lower time frame cycles complete. Here is a concrete suggestion. You are prepared like me to be patient and ride out the blips? Only trade on the positive side of swap. There lies bliss. The opposite is heartbreak. Guess how I know. The markets go up and then they go down, and then they go up, and then they go down........... Any 15 year olds here with a small fortune willing to invest in buying GU right now? Your children will be deeply grateful.   |
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| Author: | cozybooks [ Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:18 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
Wow, now that is a chart showing some perspective! So if GBP mildly surprises us all  and jumps back to 2.70 in the next year or so against USD, we need to cover about 14,000 pips per sell trade. Seems reasonable.  Okay, a hedge might be in order.Steve's nifty chart got me to draw a trend line from the peak in 2006/2007 across the peak in 2014. Interesting that if a big jump happened in the next year or so, it would run into a downward trend line around the 1.43-1.44 mark. Steve, thanks for lending the discussion some real perspective - the biggest part for me being to understand the idea that you are trading at the moment on a specific leg within a cycle. I suppose the key is to identify it and also to identify when it's ended and another has begun. Peaceful, happy trading everyone, and learn a little bit more every day!  |
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| Author: | tomele [ Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:04 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
So you are trading 10 year cycles? Nice. I don't have that time as I am quickly moving towards my 60s. And I am not totally sure Steve meant what you interpret. He might have meant you should know the timeframes you are trading. Cycles within cycles within cycles within cycles doesn't imperatively mean you can't trade against the most outer one you find. While you wait for your big cycle to play out, others will have traded umpteen swings in both directions. And short-term strategies like CTD might have made a fortune. Please save your venom until you have proven your stratagem. Cheers Thomas |
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| Author: | cozybooks [ Thu Mar 14, 2019 2:58 am ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
Hi Thomas, Oh my gosh, my most profuse apologies to you and anyone/everyone else I've offended with my post. I'm hitting 60 myself this year, so sadly the thirty year trading strategy seems out for me, especially coming from a family where our average lifespan for the last couple of generations has been 56. Steve's chart was a stunner for me. What struck me about Steve's long term chart was how deep and long a downtrend GBPUSD is on in what I'm guessing is a monthly chart. Steve's comment about trading on a specific leg in a cycle struck home with me. This was the missing piece for me. Identify the leg and cycle I am trading on regardless of the timeframe, identify what exactly would make me consider this leg broken and another leg started, and plan ahead of time whether I'm going to close the trades or hedge them when that happens. If any venom came across, I apologize for that as well. Certainly not directed against anyone here. Every advance I've made in trading is a debt to someone here. I have absolutely no stratagem I am pushing or trying to prove. GBPUSD could be heading toward 1.00 or 1.60, or even 0.70 or 2.70. It might do it quickly or slowly. I have no idea. My comments about needing to cover 14,000 pips per trade weren't directed towards anyone's trading here and I apologize if they came across that way - just a self-absorbed flip comment geared toward my own trades in the past. Years ago I had the idea of selling GBPNZD using 4-Hour TMA lines. Interest positive - really big interest positive - NZD was paying 3.5% interest at the time. Sell whenever GBPNZD passed beyond the TMA lines and came back. I was trading what I believed to be very conservative lot sizes - started selling originally at 1.95. At 2.00 I added more trades, at 2.10 I added more sell trades. Earning lots of interest now and still not in danger. Once in a while, price would move in my favor a few hundred pips and I'd bank a few small profits while waiting for the big drop. Here came 2.20, I added more sell trades. All I saw were the giant dollar signs when things turned around. The pair couldn't possibly go much higher. (Where was Steve's monthly chart when I needed it, showing GBPNZD at 3.06 in 2006??) Now at 2.30 - I added more sell trades even though things were gettinga little heated. Luckily, it could survive all the way up to 2.55. As a good friend of mine always says, "What could go wrong?" Then came the one day spike when NZD dropped like a stone through every stop against USD. GBPNZD spiked on most charts up to about 2.53, probably only for a minute or two, if that. Luckily, low enough for my account to survive... until I checked the Oanda servers. On the Oanda servers, the spike hit 2.60. Poof! Interestingly, fourteen months later it dropped to around 1.56. Those final sell trades that kicked in at 2.40 would have made a tidy profit if there had still been an account. Luckily, as you can tell, I've long since gotten over it. Hmmm.... if I had the idea back them of trading a leg within a cycle... Anyway, I'll be quiet now for a long time. Everyone here works too hard to be getting offended for their efforts, especially Thomas with all he has done. Cheers! |
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| Author: | tomele [ Thu Mar 14, 2019 10:08 am ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
All good. Sorry if I got you wrong. If your account will win the challenge, I will be happy to present you with the trophy. Cheers Thomas |
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| Author: | Gertje [ Thu Mar 21, 2019 2:57 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
Intrigued by the "close on opposite signal" as tested by Thomas, I got curious and wondered what PoS could do on the H1 using the same closing method..... The account was started early februari. |
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| Author: | tomele [ Thu Mar 21, 2019 5:19 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
... though with a little lag. Nice POS results, congratulation. Thomas |
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| Author: | tomele [ Mon Apr 08, 2019 11:03 pm ] |
| Post subject: | The 100,000 pips SPB Challenge |
Hi @all. I just had a quick look at the FXT stats. Amazing, amazing. The leading pack has made around 20.000 pips within 60 days. That means more than 300 pips per day. Taking into account the market situation of the last 60 days, which has been everything else than friendly to us, this is brilliant. Matthias, you are in front. But 80,000 pips are still to go ... Richard and I are close behind you ... Good work, guys. Keep it up. Cheers Thomas |
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