I am seeing much the same Pipley. The misaligned pivot filter hopes to pick up pairs where the long term trend is about to switch direction (the weekly is about to cross the monthly pivot, most AUD pairs have them almost on top of each other), and I guess we are seeing a long-term trend change for the Aussie. I have 4 good AUD trades, and an old one that started off bad and has got gradually worse (buy on AUDNZD on 24/10).
More worrying is that the results from backtesting going back to the start of last year have pretty much stunk to high heaven. The EA has worked well in the last few months but as we all know, no period is particularly typical in the world of forex! What has surprised me is a number of trades that have not been stopped out on the contraction of the stretch until they have lost 500+ pips, as I have seen nothing like that in my figures (worst is about 135). The current bad AUDNZD trade is nowhere near closing though, and is already about 120 pips in the red, so I wonder if we might see something similar with it.
I can easily get a lot more information about bad trades with my data, compared with what I get from Empty4 Strategy Tester, but I have noticed that the really bad trades do often reach a very high level of stretch, and I have been fiddling about (fairly unscientifically so far) at closing trades that reach these levels while in medium drawdown. A "backstop" SL might work as well, but it is slow work with the Strategy Tester. |
