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The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
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Author:  lhDT [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 4:56 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:
lhDT wrote:Last week was good but this one nope. In fact I'm always a bit afraid of buying to lows & selling he highs ... afraid of more follow trough.
Example : I Spot a good "W", I want to go long at the "\/\_" leg and then it suddenly drop more and SL is hit ...
Post some charts where the trades failed Lio, it will help to analyze what went wrong....
CJ
Thanks CJ, here is one on cable.

1. I saw a "W" but my bias was to the downside on cable so I decided to go short at the "V" from the "W", my target was to lock at the bottom to see what is going on (honnestly I was expecting a break to the downside).
2. Doesn't do what it should do ... so I re-shorted at a new high. Trade was in profit and I could exit both for a BE but my bias was still fixed to the downside.
3.I saw a big spike late in the day, so I decide to short again around a new high retest. Was end of day so chances were to a retrace ...

Unfortunately nope, nothing worked and I existed with a 1% loss overall.

When reviewing bad trades after the week, the errors we made are always crystal clear ... unfortunately this isn't happening when you hit the button in a live market.
I think my biggest mistake here was to enter on the "V" instead of waiting the complete W formation (which never happened btw).

CJ, Please comment :)

PS : Reviewing bad trades in "public" is a kind of a therapy :) Everyone should do that !
Author:  totty23 [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
I mentioned it to the Captain above confirmation of the RR trax on the third or fourth candle is safer and it did give a nice entry point here (North of course), maybe let that resovle before looking at a W/M. You would have survived going break even taking the long first. You do miss rejections waiting for confirmation but it might have distracted you from the short.
It looks like you were trading against the NY reversal (possibly myth) but it seems to happen quite often, I have not replicated it on my platform and I see you are from Belgium so I'm probably completely out timewise here.
As mentioned above I'd be looking at the bid and ask of large blocks at this time also, see who is manipulating and where.
Lastly I'm a hero after the fact............it looks like a real volatile moment to be entering a trade AND its not a true low, it happened earlier, its better to have a test on support/resistence/indie for an entry.
I like the therapeutic aspect of posting losing charts, I've got a ton of them.
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 5:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
lhDT wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
lhDT wrote:Last week was good but this one nope. In fact I'm always a bit afraid of buying to lows & selling he highs ... afraid of more follow trough.
Example : I Spot a good "W", I want to go long at the "\/\_" leg and then it suddenly drop more and SL is hit ...
Post some charts where the trades failed Lio, it will help to analyze what went wrong....
CJ
Thanks CJ, here is one on cable.

1. I saw a "W" but my bias was to the downside on cable so I decided to go short at the "V" from the "W", my target was to lock at the bottom to see what is going on (honnestly I was expecting a break to the downside).
2. Doesn't do what it should do ... so I re-shorted at a new high. Trade was in profit and I could exit both for a BE but my bias was still fixed to the downside.
3.I saw a big spike late in the day, so I decide to short again around a new high retest. Was end of day so chances were to a retrace ...

Unfortunately nope, nothing worked and I existed with a 1% loss overall.

When reviewing bad trades after the week, the errors we made are always crystal clear ... unfortunately this isn't happening when you hit the button in a live market.
I think my biggest mistake here was to enter on the "V" instead of waiting the complete W formation (which never happened btw).

CJ, Please comment :)

PS : Reviewing bad trades in "public" is a kind of a therapy :) Everyone should do that !
Yes, unfortunately, this isn't the way to trade the "W" and "M" formations....

You should have determined what level or step in the cycle the pair was currently trading in. This gives you an idea of where price will go, either up or down in the cycle.

GBPUSD had just completed its drop and formed a peak low...this should tell you the pair bias is long, not short. All the pins are to the low and shorts are trapped there. You just happened to become a short who got trapped at a higher level because you will still thinking short...

Price rose from the low and consolidated....it then broke higher, where the stop hunt began. Look at the 3 "momentum" candles that drove price to the bottom of what you label as the 1st leg of the "W"...these are the 3 pushes lower that convince you that price is going south. The pin here is the clue to go long....

When shorts are trapped, there is no reason to lower price again and give them a chance to exit...

There is another stop hunt at the point you label 3...they hit the stops high and then low, this is a clue to add to your long...you buy the stop hunt on the way up and sell them on the way down... I think I mentioned that before in the thread.

Look at past levels and notice how they use the stop hunts in between the levels...they are always there...

Thanks for posting the chart and your trades Lio. It helps to see where we go wrong and why we go wrong at those places. We can all benefit from these trade reviews.

CJ
Author:  BritShrtHair [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Trying to catch up on this great thread.
Luckily we have a long Easter weekend ahead of us.

CJ, what makes you decide the blue rectangle is not level 2 ?
Thank you.
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
BritShrtHair wrote:Trying to catch up on this great thread.
Luckily we have a long Easter weekend ahead of us.

CJ, what makes you decide the blue rectangle is not level 2 ?
Thank you.
It's a stop hunt in the 3 level rise from 1 to 2...

CJ
Author:  Reaper [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 6:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
I find trading the 1 hour TF better. Less noise and clearer levels.

GU Hourly
Author:  pips400 [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 7:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:
BritShrtHair wrote:Trying to catch up on this great thread.
Luckily we have a long Easter weekend ahead of us.

CJ, what makes you decide the blue rectangle is not level 2 ?
Thank you.
It's a stop hunt in the 3 level rise from 1 to 2...

CJ
Hi CJ, can you clarify for me the fox strategy in during a stop hunt in the middle of a 3 phase run. If in this example there's a pin high this is allowing entries going long in the same direction as the fox which isn't what the fox wants, and I'm guessing it's not offloading because the fox hasnt finished yet, so the only thing I can think off is making some quick kills along the way because price also drops to the downside possibly enough to stop out the new bulls and pick up some bears along the way?

Thanks

Pips400
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
pips400 wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
BritShrtHair wrote:Trying to catch up on this great thread.
Luckily we have a long Easter weekend ahead of us.

CJ, what makes you decide the blue rectangle is not level 2 ?
Thank you.
It's a stop hunt in the 3 level rise from 1 to 2...

CJ
Hi CJ, can you clarify for me the fox strategy in during a stop hunt in the middle of a 3 phase run. If in this example there's a pin high this is allowing entries going long in the same direction as the fox which isn't what the fox wants, and I'm guessing it's not offloading because the fox hasnt finished yet, so the only thing I can think off is making some quick kills along the way because price also drops to the downside possibly enough to stop out the new bulls and pick up some bears along the way?

Thanks

Pips400
He does it to shake out weak longs and bait in short biased bears. The trend has been down for several days...confusion is used along with quick price changes in a series of false moves, to accomplish the task...

CJ
Author:  nicoacademia [ Sun Mar 31, 2013 2:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:
pips400 wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
BritShrtHair wrote:Trying to catch up on this great thread.
Luckily we have a long Easter weekend ahead of us.

CJ, what makes you decide the blue rectangle is not level 2 ?
Thank you.
It's a stop hunt in the 3 level rise from 1 to 2...

CJ
Hi CJ, can you clarify for me the fox strategy in during a stop hunt in the middle of a 3 phase run. If in this example there's a pin high this is allowing entries going long in the same direction as the fox which isn't what the fox wants, and I'm guessing it's not offloading because the fox hasnt finished yet, so the only thing I can think off is making some quick kills along the way because price also drops to the downside possibly enough to stop out the new bulls and pick up some bears along the way?

Thanks

Pips400
He does it to shake out weak longs and bait in short biased bears. The trend has been down for several days...confusion is used along with quick price changes in a series of false moves, to accomplish the task...

CJ
Fox got 'em believing in the MA.
not that the Fox actually follows the MA. but i believe he can detect the orders/stops shifting into just such a sequence that his eventual action will be to execute it like that.

Thanks so much for your patience and explanations Captain. :)
Have a good weekend!
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sun Mar 31, 2013 3:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
lhDT wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
lhDT wrote:Last week was good but this one nope. In fact I'm always a bit afraid of buying to lows & selling he highs ... afraid of more follow trough.
Example : I Spot a good "W", I want to go long at the "\/\_" leg and then it suddenly drop more and SL is hit ...
Post some charts where the trades failed Lio, it will help to analyze what went wrong....
CJ
Thanks CJ, here is one on cable.

1. I saw a "W" but my bias was to the downside on cable so I decided to go short at the "V" from the "W", my target was to lock at the bottom to see what is going on (honnestly I was expecting a break to the downside).
2. Doesn't do what it should do ... so I re-shorted at a new high. Trade was in profit and I could exit both for a BE but my bias was still fixed to the downside.
3.I saw a big spike late in the day, so I decide to short again around a new high retest. Was end of day so chances were to a retrace ...

Unfortunately nope, nothing worked and I existed with a 1% loss overall.

When reviewing bad trades after the week, the errors we made are always crystal clear ... unfortunately this isn't happening when you hit the button in a live market.
I think my biggest mistake here was to enter on the "V" instead of waiting the complete W formation (which never happened btw).

CJ, Please comment :)

PS : Reviewing bad trades in "public" is a kind of a therapy :) Everyone should do that !
I just wanted to add one thing here Lio that I didn't touch on in the earlier post. If you determine that the last low was the Peak Low or the start of the next 3 day cycle, remember that ADR is your friend. In a way, the ADR is a "speed limit" that is placed on a dealer. So if we are starting a new 3 day cycle and ADR is 103 for this pair, we would be looking to short at around 3 X ADR9103) = 309 pips from the low....our bias should be long until something changes in the cycle or we hit apprx. 309 pips of rise...

Those are not exact or finite by any means but it is a way to determine trend bias for a pair. I know I made mention of using ADR for extending the holding period of a trade, but it can also be used to determine direction.

We need to be able to turn on a dime as the fox does and not get locked into "one way" trading...

CJ
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