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TMA Discussion Thread
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Author:  Allonso [ Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Hi Gary,

I can give you pointers but not advice. The rules in the UK do not allow the giving of financial advice unless you are registered with the FSA.
Also I think Steve might object to this thread being used to discuss a different topic, so perhaps you can sort something else out.

Allonso
Author:  idempotent [ Wed Sep 05, 2012 11:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Allonso wrote:Hi Gary,

I can give you pointers but not advice. The rules in the UK do not allow the giving of financial advice unless you are registered with the FSA.
Also I think Steve might object to this thread being used to discuss a different topic, so perhaps you can sort something else out.

Allonso
Allonso, if you feel inclined, you coild start a thread about how you *did* or how you *would* trade stocks. That's different enough from financial advice on what to trade, hopefully?
Author:  Allonso [ Wed Sep 05, 2012 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Hi idempotent,

Yes I could do as you suggest but I don't think I will, as there is very little point.
When I was trading there was no PC's everything was done by hand and lots of time and effort.
With all the data now available, high speed computers and all the help in trading now online, anyone interested should be able to learn.
I would still like to know what Gary, who is obviously a clever fellow, was doing during 1984-2000 Bull Market, to fail in making a killing. This is an mystery to me, and mystery's should be solved.

Allonso
Author:  garyfritz [ Wed Sep 05, 2012 8:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
My biggest error was assuming the market was "too high" and ripe for a crash. Remember that the markets had been going sideways for almost 20 years -- in late 1982 the Dow was exactly where it had been in 1965 -- so the idea of a sustained bull market was foreign. I was a young man in the early 80's, fresh out of college, and there hadn't been a sustained bull since I was 10 years old. Unfortunately I was young and stupid, and I hadn't studied market history enough to know that such a thing was possible.

So I was certain the markets "couldn't" keep going up forever. In mid-1987 I sold all my stock, convinced Armageddon was coming. Sure enough, in November '87 the market lost 20% in one day -- crashing almost all the way down to the level I SOLD at -- and I was certain that proved my conviction. I was sure more was coming, so I stayed out of the market. You know what happened after that.

Eventually I got bolder, and after many years I started dipping my toe in the market again. But I didn't get really aggressive until 1999...

Oh, and the very first big investment I made was silver. I bought it at $45, right before it peaked at $50 in 1980 and crashed down to $11 a few months later. I signed a contract for my first house in 1980, literally days before rates started to skyrocket. By the time my loan got finalized, rates had jumped 2.5%. And on and on...

There's a very good reason why I prefer mechanical trading systems!! My timing *SUCKS*. If I had any skill in the stock market, I would have retired long ago.
Author:  Allonso [ Thu Sep 06, 2012 6:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Hi Gary.

This will be the last post about this subject on this thread, otherwise Steve will probably shout at me and I will have to switch off my Hearing aids LOL :D

I am sorry to say this but you should never assume anything where the market is concerned. As you can see from the attached pics, although the DJI was ranging as you said. there were a number of occasions when it rose 250+ points, a hellava lot in those days, and CAT rose 200% + also GE rose nearly 100% a number of times during this period.
I know this is hindsight but there must have been other stocks that performed very much like these two.
Note: Every time price rose above the 200 MA, trades were profitable. Most important keep things simple (KISS Rule). Even today I do not trade Long unless Price is above the 200 MA. I also want the market index to be above its's 200 day MA. There are other things I check like the %Bullish Index, I like to know that 60% or more stocks are rising.

Ofcourse there are more advantages today in that taking short trades is now possible for the small investor either via Put options, Contracts for Difference or Spreadbetting. So not as much waiting for the market to trend Up.

I know that I was lucky in that I was introduced to stock trading by a older collegue when I was working in Australia in the 60's. Making a killing on Poseidon Mining in early October 1969 buying at a low price and selling for a substantial profit in mid January 1970. They rose still further and reached a high of $280 Australian in February.
Many people lost their shirts but my mentor had insisted we sell before that peak. It's a lesson (Lesson 2) I never forgot.
Several things he always insisted I do was:

1. Trade with a plan.
2. Don't be greedy.
3. Don't listen to the media.
4. Don't follow any tips.
5. Finally trade what you see.

Whether any of this helps anyone I don't know but hope it gives some idea of what you can do. You must all find the method that suits you. What works for one person doesent always work for another.

Right! Here endeth the lesson. My next post will be about the way I want to trade using Nanningbob's and what trigger I am trying to find from TMA.

Kind Regards to all

Allonso

PS. Can anyone tell me the limitation on size of graphic files JPG as the one I want to upload is continually rejected
Author:  Jemook [ Thu Sep 06, 2012 7:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Alorente is a huge inspiration to me and I consider him to be as influential in my trading as Nanningbob. To anyone reading over any of his posts – listen up!! There is gold in everything he writes. I'm so happy to have you on the forum Al, thanks for dropping by.
Author:  garyfritz [ Thu Sep 06, 2012 9:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Thanks for the stock tips. :D. Wish I'd known that 30 years ago...!!
Allonso wrote:PS. Can anyone tell me the limitation on size of graphic files JPG as the one I want to upload is continually rejected
I don't know the size restriction, but: don't use jpg! GIF is much better for charts -- much sharper -- and they'll be smaller too.
Author:  Allonso [ Fri Sep 07, 2012 2:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Hi Gary,

I lied here is the final pic of the DOW for the period 1962-1982.

Your last message sugests that you no longer even attempt trading stock even though the DOW has been in an uptrend since March 2009.
I have been trading all this time although things are a bit more dodgy now and need keeping a close eye on.
Normally election year in the States is good for the markets as the POWERS that be try to push the economy forward to help the incumbent Presidents re-election.
I watch and wait.

Regards Allonso
Author:  garyfritz [ Fri Sep 07, 2012 3:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
I'm not totally out of the market. I bought some INTC right at the low in 2010, up 30% now. DFJ has not lived up to its promise. I had a bunch of nat-gas stocks (SJT, etc) until the value of gas plummeted. Had some gold mining stocks until this summer. CIM has been a disappointment, but NLY (flat, but 14%/yr dividends) and especially TWO (up almost 50% in a year with dividends) have done well.

But overall I still lose money. I'd be better off to stuff the money in a mattress.
Author:  Allonso [ Mon Sep 10, 2012 4:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: TMA Discussion Thread
Hi,

My preferred method of trading is Spreadbetting. So I produced a spreadsheet that controlled my risk by only allowing me to bet 1/500 of my capital.

To make it work as I wanted I had to get 200 pips/week consistantly and therin lies the rub. Some weeks I do, some I don't.

Thats why I turned to Nanningbobs thread to try and find the trigger that would enable me to get consistancy.
So far I have been checking out Bunkers idea using the slope values of the H1 and M15. No conclusions as yet except that many of the good moves seem to occur when I am fast asleep. I know that it can probably be taking care of by an EA, but meanwhile I will have to keep monitoring for a consistant trigger. Any discussion and comments welcome.

Allonso
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