The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

Post by **Wavegarrick** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 6:40 am

Could this perhaps be a dirty AK pattern forming in a nice symmetrical wedge? Currently spreads widening. We shall see.

Cheers
Leon

Post by **Wavegarrick** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:06 am

AK pattern in a descending triangle. Wedge traders will usually wait for it to break short for an entry. Another fox deception?

Cheers
Leon

Post by **rewand** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:16 am

Wavegarrick » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:06 am wrote:AK pattern in a descending triangle. Wedge traders will usually wait for it to break short for an entry. Another fox deception?

Cheers
Leon

Does it look like your A to E?
I am long.

Post by **rewand** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:24 am

Another way to look at it..

Post by **Wavegarrick** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 8:31 am

Hi Rewand,

Yes I can see multiple bounces off the 130.60 level. I am long too.

Cheers

Post by **rewand** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 10:27 am

WhoKnows » Thu Mar 29, 2018 12:56 pm wrote:
rewand » Thu Mar 29, 2018 7:07 pm wrote:Anyway, I have only one issue with naked trading and that is reset.
The reset is also for me still the most difficult issue.
I nowadays just assume that a Level 2 can have a reset back to Level 1, (so I prefer trading away from PH, PL or L1.). However there I something I noticed.... or maybe imagine.

I mark my charts up with support resistance lines (something I got used to when trying an approach from a Forex training website which focuses on indecision on Daily to H4 time frames to enter; an ideal way of non-intensive trading for those with jobs).
The SR lines that are most relevant for me are those that I can place when looking at an W and D chart. I think these basically align with what CJ refers to as Areas of interest. But for me real SR lines work better.

If I see a move up from PH and the first push to L1 is pretty small and then the push to Level 2 is pretty small, the third push can't reach the next important SR / area of interest. In these case there is IMHO a much greater chance that at Level 2 you will see a reset to Level 1 and a restart of the cycle up (which then has a shorter distance to cover). I hope my rambling makes sense.
So based on a higher time frame I guestimate where the next cycle could/should end, and if the first levels don't cover enough ground I expect a reset at level 2.

BTW for me the use of SR lines as targets for moves, or to pinpoint likely reversals makes it a lot easier.
Basically trying to integrate two approaches. Still in testing phase but for very promising.

Do you mind posting a picture?
This is how I can best imagine reset, with intention to entice shorts close or below previous level 2.

Post by **Wavegarrick** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 11:23 am

A Trade I am currently looking at for a nice reversal EURNZD which carries a positive swap on shorts. LONG no go

Please correct me if my level counting is wrong. There were 4 level pushes higher since January 2017 as I see it with an extended move on the 4th level.

In the wedge formation there is a possible A to K formation which could mean another move up. However there is a strong support/resistance area (bold black horizontal lines). If it does break the symmetrical wedge to the upside I could see a possible 900 pip move upwards. Would this then be a reset?

Also in the wedge there is a 3 cycle move up with with 3 higher highs and 3 higher lows since the beginning of Jan 2018 which strengthens the fact that we could have a reversal here. As CJ puts it, price moves in cycles of 3.
Edit: Just a little lightbulb coming on. AUDNZD has had a sustained period of weakness which are at levels that I would look at buying. As Nanningbob puts it. NZD always follows AUD in strength or vice versa, so could it be that we have a sustained period of Kiwi weakness?. A possible weekend gap up. We shall see.

Comments are welcome.

Cheers
Leon

rambo06 · Post by **rambo06** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:12 pm

USDCHF ... Looking for a pullback soon. This was a 3 push trade with M at top

rambo06 · Post by **rambo06** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:18 pm

EURGBP .. Looks like it is working on completing the 3 levels. I will be monitoring IF & HOW it reaches the top. If it breaks through I will let it run but if we get a double top I will try and ride it back the other way.

rambo06 · Post by **rambo06** » Fri Mar 30, 2018 1:28 pm

USDJPY .. Will hold this one for a while longer as I feel it has some upwards movement left. I took a position on USDJPY a few days back that I posted and it wound up being a loss of about 25pips. I got in too early as I wasn't expecting them to take the last swipe down but this trade has more than made my money back

If anyone would like any further explanation on the charts please don't hesitate to ask as I have always appreciated others who are willing to the same.