rocketman99 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:42 am wrote:

bioinfor » Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:25 pm wrote:Big news kill any trend. Bad AUD news killed AUD,but good NZD news also killed NZD. Uraine up JPY. It is so hard to make use of news. I have to give up trading on news. This CSS with 8 currencies shows average strength of each against other 7. In other words, when you trade individual pair ,you have to double check this pair CSS. When you trade on D1 ,H4 CSS, very possible that temporary trend is over and you sell at bottom or buy at top. I am trying this: 1. check fundmental---USD will be good, gbp,nzd priced in. EUR,CHF will not be up. not sure for AUD because China officer's fighting is not over. not sure for jpy. CAD will be good by following USD.
2. technical: find good trend on D1 css, but H4 can't be anti-trend, then find entry point at M30/15 css. Lock positions during unsure news. then trade ~5 minutes after news

as for 'GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPAUD and GBPCHF' you mentioned,I can't see any good trend. Hard to see trend at this moment, USD at top wiating Jackson meeting? NZD is at bottom?lots of in the middle to look for new direction?

rocketman99 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 5:24 am wrote:As usual I am on the wrong side of the AUD during the employment numbers release (which were bad) and promptly doubled my DD. Are we expecting a rapid retrace or is that the AUD done for now and trend changed to negative?

Maybe I will just sit and collect swap for rest of week and re-evaluate next week for a possible additional entry.

I don't trade news either (first rule of forex - don't trade news!), but had positions open based on AUD CSS readings. I was savagely beaten as I was with NZD last week. My long term (daily/weekly) view is still strong on both.

nanningbob » Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:02 am wrote:

rocketman99 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:42 am wrote:

bioinfor » Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:25 pm wrote:Big news kill any trend. Bad AUD news killed AUD,but good NZD news also killed NZD. Uraine up JPY. It is so hard to make use of news. I have to give up trading on news. This CSS with 8 currencies shows average strength of each against other 7. In other words, when you trade individual pair ,you have to double check this pair CSS. When you trade on D1 ,H4 CSS, very possible that temporary trend is over and you sell at bottom or buy at top. I am trying this: 1. check fundmental---USD will be good, gbp,nzd priced in. EUR,CHF will not be up. not sure for AUD because China officer's fighting is not over. not sure for jpy. CAD will be good by following USD.
2. technical: find good trend on D1 css, but H4 can't be anti-trend, then find entry point at M30/15 css. Lock positions during unsure news. then trade ~5 minutes after news

as for 'GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPAUD and GBPCHF' you mentioned,I can't see any good trend. Hard to see trend at this moment, USD at top wiating Jackson meeting? NZD is at bottom?lots of in the middle to look for new direction?

rocketman99 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 5:24 am wrote:As usual I am on the wrong side of the AUD during the employment numbers release (which were bad) and promptly doubled my DD. Are we expecting a rapid retrace or is that the AUD done for now and trend changed to negative?

Maybe I will just sit and collect swap for rest of week and re-evaluate next week for a possible additional entry.

I don't trade news either (first rule of forex - don't trade news!), but had positions open based on AUD CSS readings. I was savagely beaten as I was with NZD last week. My long term (daily/weekly) view is still strong on both.

But those news stories didnt change NZD fundamentals. So I hung in there in the retracements have been nice so far.

nanningbob » Fri Aug 08, 2014 6:38 am wrote:I dont trade nzd/jpy that much, did last year but when I trade nzd I usually trade eur/nzd, gbp/nzd, and nzd/usd. They move and give me pips and recover nicely too.

bioinfor » Fri Aug 08, 2014 1:56 pm wrote:Bob,hope you will do well.My NZDJPY position at buy was lost by thousands of pips in the past one month. I agree NZD's fundamental is better than JPY. Best carry trade pair,stably earn by 3% interest rate.I traded by this rule. But last week I have to lock NZDJPY position. Not sure when NZD's fundamental begin to move NZD up.Very possible my account is broken when market is on my side. But recent NZD's good employment indeed sell NZD off. Looks like NZD was priced in already? Just now, Obama said airstrike in Iraq,NZD down a lot, but JPY up a lot. It looks like what happened during 2008. No crisis, people sell jpy but buy nzd; do opposite when crisis happens. If USD begin to move on UT, these small and high risk forex will be down much more?

nanningbob » Fri Aug 08, 2014 2:02 am wrote:

rocketman99 » Fri Aug 08, 2014 9:42 am wrote:

bioinfor » Thu Aug 07, 2014 3:25 pm wrote:Big news kill any trend. Bad AUD news killed AUD,but good NZD news also killed NZD. Uraine up JPY. It is so hard to make use of news. I have to give up trading on news. This CSS with 8 currencies shows average strength of each against other 7. In other words, when you trade individual pair ,you have to double check this pair CSS. When you trade on D1 ,H4 CSS, very possible that temporary trend is over and you sell at bottom or buy at top. I am trying this: 1. check fundmental---USD will be good, gbp,nzd priced in. EUR,CHF will not be up. not sure for AUD because China officer's fighting is not over. not sure for jpy. CAD will be good by following USD.
2. technical: find good trend on D1 css, but H4 can't be anti-trend, then find entry point at M30/15 css. Lock positions during unsure news. then trade ~5 minutes after news

as for 'GBPUSD, GBPJPY, GBPAUD and GBPCHF' you mentioned,I can't see any good trend. Hard to see trend at this moment, USD at top wiating Jackson meeting? NZD is at bottom?lots of in the middle to look for new direction?

rocketman99 » Thu Aug 07, 2014 5:24 am wrote:As usual I am on the wrong side of the AUD during the employment numbers release (which were bad) and promptly doubled my DD. Are we expecting a rapid retrace or is that the AUD done for now and trend changed to negative?

Maybe I will just sit and collect swap for rest of week and re-evaluate next week for a possible additional entry.

I don't trade news either (first rule of forex - don't trade news!), but had positions open based on AUD CSS readings. I was savagely beaten as I was with NZD last week. My long term (daily/weekly) view is still strong on both.

But those news stories didnt change NZD fundamentals. So I hung in there in the retracements have been nice so far.

lhDT » Mon Aug 11, 2014 5:07 am wrote:Hi There,

Log time I didn't posted here.
EUR/AUD is crossing between the 20 so EUR strength against AUD, should be long ? Problem, daily stocks shows the opposite.

Trying to understand things 10.9, forgive me if i'm totally wrong.


-Lio.

nanningbob » Sun Aug 03, 2014 11:36 pm wrote:OK this last week

Cad slide began to taper but was still downward across the board. I would expect to see some recovery or a breather here in its DT. If the USD run is over then CAD will come up as the USD goes down. If USD continues strong then the CAD probably will stay near the bottom.

OK CAD had a two day breather and then continued its slight slide. I did pick up some pips buying CAD but it was short lived. It continues to slowly slide down. Probably will continue to be near the bottom this week.

NZD slide continued early in the week but started to strengthen as the week wore on. It looks like it will follow the AUD back up. How strong will be the key. Watch the AUD if it keeps its 2nd place and stays high then I would expect the NZD to follow and regain at least some if not most of its drop.

AUD is sliding down and NZD is angling up. If AUD continues its slide down then the NZD recovery will probably be short lived. I will expect the NZD to rally some this week but after that we will see. AUD looks like it is going down for now as it crosses the 0 line. Look for AUD sells.

GBP stayed in the middle but seems to be drifting down. Eur and CHF caught up with it in the middle. I would be very interested in Eur/gbp and gbp/chf sells if they cross. However, Ukraine war news could send the eur and chf downward and probably take the gbp with it.

EUR and CHF continued to move up and the GBP stayed in the middle with a little slide DT. Ukraine will probably weigh on all three. Look for eur and chf to move up if Ukraine situation gets better, slide down if it gets worse. Russia's boycott of produce effect will be more in the future, short term dont expect it to have much impact. Look for eur and chf buys if news doesnt change it.

USD up up and away again, however, the news was mixed on Friday so I would expect it to level and start coming back down. However, it is still the #1 strong currency at the moment.

USD stayed on top but looks like its run has run out of steam. I will look to stand aside or play retracements.

AUD, JPY, USD angling down but wouldnt play JPY weakness yet. It seems to want to hang in there tough. Traders/market is not buying into JPY talking down its currency, Until JPY increases its bond sales I dont expect it to weaken too much. However, more shooting or fighting will cause JPY to strengthen.

China has put a ban on all political talk on SMS and text and internet chat rooms. Some of their airports have been closed for periods of time for miltary drills. This has disrupted some air traffic. Something is up especialy with the news that exports were up 14.7%. That is crap, I think its a total lie or money going out of the country being disguised as exports. I feel like I am sitting on a ticking time bomb here. However, nothing may happen. I am glad I sold my school and am free to move anytime I wish.

JPY beginning of the month drop but these have been small and limited lately. Probably again this month and strengthen later when the bond sales are done. Word is if JPY wants to weaken more it will have to increase its bond sales, however, BOJ is basically the only buyer of the bonds. Interesting dilemma, being the seller and buyer of your bonds. NO I dont want to try to explain that one. At least the USA was buying up bad mortgages and has a chance of getting some if not all of its money back in .................. ohhhhhhhhhhhh ......... 10-20 years. If we have enough inflation to move that dead paper up. Anyway chart is below.