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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  spotdespot [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:08 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
This is why I don't like AUDNZD.

RSI topped out and Laguerre also high - so pretty overbought on D1. Same on H1. D1 longer term trend is still down imo.

I would suggest not aiming too high with TP here.

Just my 2c.

Cheers,
Dave.
Author:  Nipponho [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 10:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Wiggy1965 wrote: Which ones,

You mention 5 pending, which do you think i'm missing...

USDCAD, I aggree it is there, however I chose not to take it for other reasons....
USDCHF, I kinda agreed its there, however I'm still worried about it...
AUDUSD, RSI is still not at 100 (but very close) and is only now stating to flatten....
NZDUSD, you saw my last post, i still don't have a RSI, it's close but not 100 and not flattening out....
AUDNZD, I'm sorry but RSI is nowhere near an entry...

The concern i have with taking RSI before 100 or 0 and flattening, is it does appear in many case that there may be more selling or buying to occur, so there fore it's not totally oversold or over brought...As such, your not getting the best (optimum) entry.....Further to this, you may be getting into trades you don't want....I'm not the only person that has spoken of the value of allow RSI to flatten, may other have posted in relation to this...

You only need to go back the 8th of Feb (NZDUSD) and look at the RSI failing to top out (overbrought), look what happens next, price goes short 66 pips the retraces through the MA 220 pips...

I know Bob does not use the AO to confirm entry, however if you concede AO is good enough to tell you what price is potentially going to do in or to exit trades, then you would be silly to not even look at it when considering a trade....Given RSI is not overbought, what does OA tell me....? It's green and up-trending, this tell me then may be further buying....So, neither indicator is giving me a signal to place a pending sell order....why would you place a sell order when you have two indicators telling there is potentially more buying to occur....

The trade may well work out, but given the number of 10.4 trades available, do i choose this one over others, maybe not...! Do i trade it because i have nothing else to do and i have to be in a trade, defiantly not....

I'm more than happy to post my charts, but as i use Version 1 of the template, most people should seeing what i see.....

I have one disclaimer in relation to the RSI triggers above that I'm not seeing above.....My live broker is AXI trader and they are GMT +2 and I'm not seeing the RSI signals on the trade i mentioned above, however my other live account (i don't really use) is GFT and is on GMT....On the GFT account, I'm seeing a brief touch of the RSI on the Kiwi trades, however the AUD is still not there....

So base on just above, some people are going to see entries that others are not...

Regards Wiggy
About RSI, I believe it can also remain flat at 100 while price continues to rise. This is the shortcoming of oscillator, it may not give u perfect timing whether it is at 90 or 100. If RSI is used in isolation for entries, trades will turn bad during trending times.

Under 10.4, the directional bias using 240ma gives an edge. Next we look at rsi. Next PA has to cross the next pivot line. So u see RSI is just one of the components. Determining the directional bias in some way mitigates the short coming of oscillator.

It failed on 8 Feb when rsi was 74. The lines were drawn at 80, so I guess bob had intended for 80 as the threshold. Those trades that we took past few days were at 90+. Even the best set ups are also not fail safe.

The NU trade looks OK to me for entry. It’s very difficult to find a perfect text book setup in real trading such that RSI is 100, AO is what u want to see, price action is behaving, RR is good, align with fundamental news etc.

We trade to gain experience, not because we have nothing else to do.

AU as it is now is a SR trade, not 10.4 trade, but it was mentioned in one of the 10.4 booklets explaining pivot lines.

I used Cowboy IBFX demo to view the setups, just to be sure my charts align with others so that I can examine what they are talking about. But my live trades are manually opened with GFT. If I load the templates onto GFT, I am sure it will be different from the rest of people, and I will not be able to follow their discussion.
Author:  fxgeezer [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
fxgeezer wrote:Hi guys,

Looks like an interesting system thanks.

I would like to manually backtest this, but wondering if anyone's managed to produce an arrow based indicator, pinpointing the valid historical signals, which would help loads with my testing.

Many thanks.
Just wondering if there's an arrow indicator for this system, that makes it easy to go back in history to check out the past trades. Thanks.
Author:  Nipponho [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:09 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
UsdChf inflicting pain again. It moves just enough to trigger an entry & thereafter turn red.
Author:  rebyte2 [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:16 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Next EURAUD pending sell just kicked in.
Author:  Wiggy1965 [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Nipponho wrote:
Wiggy1965 wrote: Which ones,

You mention 5 pending, which do you think i'm missing...

USDCAD, I aggree it is there, however I chose not to take it for other reasons....
USDCHF, I kinda agreed its there, however I'm still worried about it...
AUDUSD, RSI is still not at 100 (but very close) and is only now stating to flatten....
NZDUSD, you saw my last post, i still don't have a RSI, it's close but not 100 and not flattening out....
AUDNZD, I'm sorry but RSI is nowhere near an entry...

The concern i have with taking RSI before 100 or 0 and flattening, is it does appear in many case that there may be more selling or buying to occur, so there fore it's not totally oversold or over brought...As such, your not getting the best (optimum) entry.....Further to this, you may be getting into trades you don't want....I'm not the only person that has spoken of the value of allow RSI to flatten, may other have posted in relation to this...

You only need to go back the 8th of Feb (NZDUSD) and look at the RSI failing to top out (overbrought), look what happens next, price goes short 66 pips the retraces through the MA 220 pips...

I know Bob does not use the AO to confirm entry, however if you concede AO is good enough to tell you what price is potentially going to do in or to exit trades, then you would be silly to not even look at it when considering a trade....Given RSI is not overbought, what does OA tell me....? It's green and up-trending, this tell me then may be further buying....So, neither indicator is giving me a signal to place a pending sell order....why would you place a sell order when you have two indicators telling there is potentially more buying to occur....

The trade may well work out, but given the number of 10.4 trades available, do i choose this one over others, maybe not...! Do i trade it because i have nothing else to do and i have to be in a trade, defiantly not....

I'm more than happy to post my charts, but as i use Version 1 of the template, most people should seeing what i see.....

I have one disclaimer in relation to the RSI triggers above that I'm not seeing above.....My live broker is AXI trader and they are GMT +2 and I'm not seeing the RSI signals on the trade i mentioned above, however my other live account (i don't really use) is GFT and is on GMT....On the GFT account, I'm seeing a brief touch of the RSI on the Kiwi trades, however the AUD is still not there....

So base on just above, some people are going to see entries that others are not...

Regards Wiggy
About RSI, I believe it can also remain flat at 100 while price continues to rise. This is the shortcoming of oscillator, it may not give u perfect timing whether it is at 90 or 100. If RSI is used in isolation for entries, trades will turn bad during trending times.

Under 10.4, the directional bias using 240ma gives an edge. Next we look at rsi. Next PA has to cross the next pivot line. So u see RSI is just one of the components. Determining the directional bias in some way mitigates the short coming of oscillator.

It failed on 8 Feb when rsi was 74. The lines were drawn at 80, so I guess bob had intended for 80 as the threshold. Those trades that we took past few days were at 90+. Even the best set ups are also not fail safe.

The NU trade looks OK to me for entry. It’s very difficult to find a perfect text book setup in real trading such that RSI is 100, AO is what u want to see, price action is behaving, RR is good, align with fundamental news etc.

We trade to gain experience, not because we have nothing else to do.

AU as it is now is a SR trade, not 10.4 trade, but it was mentioned in one of the 10.4 booklets explaining pivot lines.

I used Cowboy IBFX demo to view the setups, just to be sure my charts align with others so that I can examine what they are talking about. But my live trades are manually opened with GFT. If I load the templates onto GFT, I am sure it will be different from the rest of people, and I will not be able to follow their discussion.
Nippon,

I understand the nature of the 10.4 strategy and that price can continue to move and though the RSI is flatline....This comment only highlights my comments that we shuld be waiting for a pinning of the RSI at the 0 or 100 level as this is the best way for this indicator to tell us price has peeked....

Note: The 20 and 80 mark on the RSI indicator are standard number provided with the RSI indicator and not something that bob has specifically added or refers to in anything i have read....

I draw your attention to page 14 of Bobs doco, re RSI

"Also inside these indicators is the RSI 2 (Relative Strength Index); which gives you a signal to start setting your pending orders. It looks like this and is the gold colored lines. When put inside the slope indicators it flattens out at the top and the bottom and gives you the signal that you have a dip in the UT. See # 1-5 below. So when price is above the 240 you are looking to enter buys, the RSI 2 signals to set your pending orders and the AO confirms your entrances and warns you to exit. See the light blue areas numbered 1-5 below."

Note the "flattens out at the top and bottom" comment

The object of the RSI flattending out (and i really believe this) is the keep you out of trades that you don't want to be in....I give you a couple of examples where trades may/have been taken with a touch of the 0 or 100 lines....

USDCFH, I bet some people have been in this 14 hours and are staring at it right now...I'm not, as RSI is telling me there is more selling....Now the trade could work out, but it could still go lower providng a better entry....

Another example is EURUSD, i know a bunch of people have tried to short this over the last ten days to two week...It's going nowhere....

Now i know you will find a bunch of example of trades I'm missing, but that is not the point, because a missed trade cannot hurt me....

I know i bang on about entries, RSI this RSI that, but the initial entry is the most important and you want it to move..So you want the best trades with the best chance of a solid move in the right direction....so i'm looking for trades that from what best i can tell are completely oversold or brought.....you want to make sure it move at least until you can add another position or set to break even, this way you are covered from the market, you cant be hurt, a free trade....

If you are happy to enter at anywhere between 80 and 100 or 0 and 20, then you are saying "i'm happy for this trade to go into DD for a period of time before it start to move in my direction".....Now with 4H charts that is a huge risk, just like the USDCHF that people have been if for 14 hours and still does not look like going positive soon...

I want to be sure with the tools i have available to me (or provided as part of the 10.4 template) that i have ensured the retracement is complete....Is over 80 or below 20 comprehensive enough...? for me no....do i miss trades yes....am i OK with that yes...!

Am i in the USDCHF trade no, have i tried to short Euro over the last week and a bit, no...am i ok with that yes...

I apologies in advance if i jack anybody off....

Regards
Wiggy
Author:  Wiggy1965 [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Bob/Captain, how do you see AUD...?
Author:  Gertje [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 11:56 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Wiggy1965 wrote:................Another example is EURUSD, i know a bunch of people have tried to short this over the last ten days to two week...It's going nowhere..........
Hi Wiggy,

I beg to differ.
I made 8 trades over the last 2 weeks, all profitted.

[EDIT] Should be 6 trades, I added to the first listed to change lots from 0.02 to 0.03

We have a different view on the entry's, but as long as one sticks to the pendings, the better entrance is still available. Just add a pending and change the former one if needed.
Author:  DocT [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 12:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Taken my two levels on AUDCAD to TP below prevoius pin high for nice profit. Will look for retrace to take long again.
Gotta love 10.4.
Author:  Gertje [ Tue Mar 12, 2013 12:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
taggie11 wrote:Taken my two levels on AUDCAD for nice profit. Will look for retrace to take long again.
Gotta love 10.4.
I'm aiming for R1 on this one.
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