stevehopwoodforex.com
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/
Print view

The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=1572		 Page 18 of 1600
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 6:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
xrismak wrote:
Have a Look 1.png
spotdespot wrote:I'm a bit like pips400 - still looking through a dirty screen. I keep thinking I am grasping bits of it but I am struggling to separate what I am seeing from other explanations for the actions. For example I have been looking at WMD's stuff on FF - Trading With Deadly Accuracy I think it's called. It's naked trading so hopefully not too far off target for the thread. I keep seeing his "hook" structure retests of "breakout" areas everywhere - and the reasoning for the retests is different from CJ's for example but the result is the same.

Also re. trendlines - I think they can be very useful. Again the above thread opened my eyes a little as once you move away from the rigid preconceptions of how trendlines should be drawn you can start making some interesting discoveries. For example - the trendlines drawn below I would not have drawn previously but I have quite a bit of faith in them in that there will be some reaction. These particular trendlines were drawn on the weekly chart from around October 2011 - yet look at the reaction to them now on an H4 chart. In my mind I would be looking for confluence of trendlines/S/R/Sup/Dem for potential reversal points but I would like to tie them in with CJ's ideas if I could get my head around them :shock: then maybe, in time, move on to the other side of the glass and get rid of all the "noise" :lol:

EDIT: Just seen posts since I started writing this. Mike - what is an "M"? I know an M as simply price following that shape but you referred to a double M with a higher high that I couldn't see for the life of me and I certainly struggle to see how we predict one on the EJ M15 chart?

Cheers,
Dave.
Spotdespot,

Are we seeing Similar Stuff in different Formats, I might be wrong but I just want to be sure that I am catching on to the Concept slowly Peeps.

Happy trading Y'all,

xrismak. ;)
Seeing this?

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 6:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
xrismak wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
Jason wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
Jason wrote:
mjws00 wrote: CJ
I don't doubt that stop hunting happens often. I have seen market manipulation all of February and I was right almost everyday too! :D
Stop hunting is just part of it. It's how they build a position, exit a position, get traders out of their positions and change direction at times.

Price is always moving, up and down. It has to for them to take profits. Price must step back to go forward as well as step forward to go back. Getting a heads on when they change the trend, and they can change it at anytime is key to improving trading as well. The candle patterns help to identify these tracks when they leave them. They can try to hide them with deception, but they can't eliminate them. They are right in front of us but it's up to us to "see" them. Most people don't because they are looking elsewhere.

CJ

CJ,
was just trying out your Little Snagit Gizmo, I love it.... I am going to try to use it to Draw my Trendlines and Built a few roof tops, more like learning to BARF my way to loads of Profits, :) now let me get back to the Important biz of Learning from you.

Warm Regards,
xrismak ;)
I really like Snagit for the screen caps and editing. So easy to use, works for me!

Here's a roof top for ya!

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 7:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
spotdespot wrote:I'm a bit like pips400 - still looking through a dirty screen. I keep thinking I am grasping bits of it but I am struggling to separate what I am seeing from other explanations for the actions. For example I have been looking at WMD's stuff on FF - Trading With Deadly Accuracy I think it's called. It's naked trading so hopefully not too far off target for the thread. I keep seeing his "hook" structure retests of "breakout" areas everywhere - and the reasoning for the retests is different from CJ's for example but the result is the same.

Also re. trendlines - I think they can be very useful. Again the above thread opened my eyes a little as once you move away from the rigid preconceptions of how trendlines should be drawn you can start making some interesting discoveries. For example - the trendlines drawn below I would not have drawn previously but I have quite a bit of faith in them in that there will be some reaction. These particular trendlines were drawn on the weekly chart from around October 2011 - yet look at the reaction to them now on an H4 chart. In my mind I would be looking for confluence of trendlines/S/R/Sup/Dem for potential reversal points but I would like to tie them in with CJ's ideas if I could get my head around them :shock: then maybe, in time, move on to the other side of the glass and get rid of all the "noise" :lol:

EDIT: Just seen posts since I started writing this. Mike - what is an "M"? I know an M as simply price following that shape but you referred to a double M with a higher high that I couldn't see for the life of me and I certainly struggle to see how we predict one on the EJ M15 chart?

Cheers,
Dave.
I'm not familiar with WMD's work, you are welcome to discuss his ideas here if he gives different reasoning than I do. I'd actually like to hear it.

The concepts I bring forth require you to toss a lot of what you know about forex out the window, or more so, what you have been told about forex. To grasp what I am saying, you need an open mind. You need to be able to accept something that goes against the masses, perhaps against logical reasoning.

I read that you put a lot of faith in trend lines. They seem to work well. You are supposed to rely on trend lines, S&D areas and a lot of other things. You KNOW price is drawn to these areas. Where we differ is that I know that price is not drawn to them, but that a market maker drives price to certain points, to create trend lines where large numbers of traders will gather. Where price interacts with a trend line could be considered a point where the market makers make a lot of money

Market makers. One for each session, per time zone, per bank. There are "dealers" at various levels below them but the central banks guide price. Let the speculators get out of hand and you will see a crushing intervention. They interact with each other. They know where every line is because they are the one who create the points that comprise the lines. They are the artist that paints everything you see on your price screen. But most important of all, they are the candle makers.

A trend line to me is one of the lesser evils. They are visual aids and I will throw one on a chart now and then for reference when plotting price. No matter how easy it looks using trend lines, many traders get butchered at the points that create them. That's why price returns.

Those trend lines are also indicating a "range" area. This range area is the same you see in the Asian session each day. Price has been consolidating in this range for months. What you have just seen, this past week, is the widening of this range, on the 4H charts. You are seeing the resetting of the 4H high and 4H lows the same as you would the resetting of the intra day high and lows. This process will takes weeks, maybe a month or two. There will be a break above or below this new range and a massive stop hunt will take place, out of which a new trend will emerge. This is where I expect the lows to be near 112-113.00 areas. Crazy stuff huh?

If you thinks it's crazy, compare the price forecast chart for EURGBP that I posted last week. Look at the shape of the pattern I posted, compare it to the shape of the move that just occurred. Look at the low point on the last "W" that printed on Friday and compare it to the forecast chart. Crazy stuff, but we all know price can't be predicted don't we.

Lines and indicators tell us where price has been, but if you listen, price will tell you where it's going.

CJ
Author:  BritShrtHair [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 9:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
CJ, what to say about USDCHF Daily?

There has been a pin over the last resistance.
I'm tempted to go short with SL above that last pin.
Or is there something that tells you to hold on?
(I'm also thinking: isn't this too obvious ?)

Thank you!
Author:  Gertje [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 11:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:
xrismak wrote:
Have a Look 1.png
spotdespot wrote:I'm a bit like pips400 - still looking through a dirty screen. I keep thinking I am grasping bits of it but I am struggling to separate what I am seeing from other explanations for the actions. For example I have been looking at WMD's stuff on FF - Trading With Deadly Accuracy I think it's called. It's naked trading so hopefully not too far off target for the thread. I keep seeing his "hook" structure retests of "breakout" areas everywhere - and the reasoning for the retests is different from CJ's for example but the result is the same.

Also re. trendlines - I think they can be very useful. Again the above thread opened my eyes a little as once you move away from the rigid preconceptions of how trendlines should be drawn you can start making some interesting discoveries. For example - the trendlines drawn below I would not have drawn previously but I have quite a bit of faith in them in that there will be some reaction. These particular trendlines were drawn on the weekly chart from around October 2011 - yet look at the reaction to them now on an H4 chart. In my mind I would be looking for confluence of trendlines/S/R/Sup/Dem for potential reversal points but I would like to tie them in with CJ's ideas if I could get my head around them :shock: then maybe, in time, move on to the other side of the glass and get rid of all the "noise" :lol:

EDIT: Just seen posts since I started writing this. Mike - what is an "M"? I know an M as simply price following that shape but you referred to a double M with a higher high that I couldn't see for the life of me and I certainly struggle to see how we predict one on the EJ M15 chart?

Cheers,
Dave.
Spotdespot,

Are we seeing Similar Stuff in different Formats, I might be wrong but I just want to be sure that I am catching on to the Concept slowly Peeps.

Happy trading Y'all,

xrismak. ;)
Seeing this?

CJ
Hi CJ,

What do the M's and W's tell you?
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 3:46 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
BritShrtHair wrote:CJ, what to say about USDCHF Daily?

There has been a pin over the last resistance.
I'm tempted to go short with SL above that last pin.
Or is there something that tells you to hold on?
(I'm also thinking: isn't this too obvious ?)

Thank you!
My feeling is that if you go short here, you've taken the bait. Your SL at pin high will be taken during the stop hunt, if not before. A 2nd H4 candle will print and it will probably pin higher. Shorts and longs are trapped now, as they always are at the end of the day, week, month, etc. When the market opens, there will be a gap, taking out stops before those trapped even have a chance to do anything.

During the Asian session, price will drift up and down in a narrow range, resetting the initial HOD/LOD. Near the London open, price will exceed the range, both higher and lower. This is the clue that the stop hunt is about to start. Price will begin to move a lot, both ways, enticing traders into incorrect positions, stops will be taken out and positions closed at losses. Once this process completes, the next move takes place. I look for price to end lower going into NY session or reverse lower during the NY session. This is based on the 15M chart. What takes place on the lower time frame will also take place on the higher, but over a longer period of time, so the 15M move will give clue to the longer, more drawn out 4H move to come. So if you are looking to short, wait for a higher price.

Just an old man's opinion so don't bet the house on it. ;)

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 4:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Gertje wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
xrismak wrote:[attachment=5]
CJ
Hi CJ,

What do the M's and W's tell you?
"M" and "W"'s are the expanded view of a RRT formation. When you see a RRT formation of a higher time frame, drop to a lower and you will see the "M" or "W" formation on the lower time frame. They are reversal patterns and can be traded profitably.

Entry points are taken on the 2nd leg of each. When looking at these on the charts, they tend to flow from "M" into "W" or "W" into "M", it's how the work the trends and extract their profits. Straight line moves, which occur give little time for profit taking. The "M" and "W" patterns are the pull backs and re-traces in the market. "W" indicates a rise in price, "M" indicates a drop in price.

CJ
Author:  xrismak [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 6:45 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Captain Jack wrote:
xrismak wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
Jason wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
Jason wrote:
mjws00 wrote: CJ
I don't doubt that stop hunting happens often. I have seen market manipulation all of February and I was right almost everyday too! :D
Stop hunting is just part of it. It's how they build a position, exit a position, get traders out of their positions and change direction at times.

Price is always moving, up and down. It has to for them to take profits. Price must step back to go forward as well as step forward to go back. Getting a heads on when they change the trend, and they can change it at anytime is key to improving trading as well. The candle patterns help to identify these tracks when they leave them. They can try to hide them with deception, but they can't eliminate them. They are right in front of us but it's up to us to "see" them. Most people don't because they are looking elsewhere.

CJ

CJ,
was just trying out your Little Snagit Gizmo, I love it.... I am going to try to use it to Draw my Trendlines and Built a few roof tops, more like learning to BARF my way to loads of Profits, :) now let me get back to the Important biz of Learning from you.

Warm Regards,
xrismak ;)
I really like Snagit for the screen caps and editing. So easy to use, works for me!

Here's a roof top for ya!

CJ
CJ,

Smashing, Now I have got to study and Learn very well on how to plot the Ms and Ws Deligently, once I am through with that Learning Process, I'll start looking at building Roofs on Tops and doing the Simultaneous 5 to 10 short Trades on the same currency Pair, oh the learning curve with you just gets more Exciting and Profitable with your Visual Imputs on the Charts.
CJ, you a GIGATILUS......... :D
Snagit is LARGE.... love it to bits, thanks for pointing us in the Directions that make life a little bit more Simpler.

Happy Trading Y'all,
xrismak ;)
Author:  xrismak [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 7:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Peeps,

Don't you just love this........ :)


Wish I was going to be around to trade this much later, but I gotz to roll for work while the markets will be open... might get it wrong but I have a Pretty good feeling I am Right.


Happy Trading y'all,

xrismak. ;)
Author:  mjws00 [ Sun Mar 10, 2013 7:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
xrismak, I have no idea how to read your chart. What are you highlighting? Last one baffled me as well. So I must've missed a lesson somewhere.

Mike
All times are UTC Page 18 of 1600

Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited