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Author:  nanningbob [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 2:34 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
anyways the difference is caused by the weekend gaps. Without those gaps the pivot would be the same. So the question would be, do you want the updated pivot or the standard pivot based on Friday? Sometimes like today the update was a benefit. I would be interested in knowing what your S1/R1 lines are on the standard pivot. If my pivot is your R1 then you could have made the same trades. The logic being bouncing off of the monthly pivot and breaking back down through R1 on your chart. Let me know if you see that scenario.
Author:  forexripper [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 2:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
Thanks Bob and Steve for all your guidance and hard work. So now we all the tools to trade succesfully. The only thing now I am struggling with is to find a way to identify pairs to trade each day. I am thinking of the following steps and need your advice on it:

1) starting with Baluda's currency slope strength indicator to alert me of crosses at Asia open
2) look at the dashboard (made available on one of the threads here) to see D1 and H4 strengths of that pair. Both to be above 0.4 or below -0.4
3) go to the chart with new MP, WP, DP and confirm the trend identified in #2
4) trade that pair using 10.2 template and method
5) Use MPTM to manage the trade/s.

The above steps are for trend trades.

For range trades during UP or DT, I am thinking of looking at the dashboard and identify pairs with D1 still above 0.4 or below -0.4 but H4 in range mode. Confirm trend with MP, WP, DP and trade the pair accordingly. So, buy when close back above DP and sell when close back below DP according to the trend only (no CT for me).

These will be all manully done by me until a good EA capturing 10.2 method completely emerges here.

E.g. Trend trade - only EURNZD short
Range in UT or DT - e.g. GU is Range in DT but when DP is above WP so no trade with this pair on the other hand GBPAUD has DT on D1 and range on H4 and new template confirms DT. Price gets rejected of DP so Short this pair @ 1.5607

Please advise. Thanks
Author:  forexripper [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 2:47 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
nanningbob wrote:
Zool wrote:Hi Bob!

I'm currently looking at your 10.2A update. I found that the monday daily pivot is calculated from the sunday candle (if there's a sunday candle). I've checked many other daily pivot indicators (even the one Cowboy IBFX Cowboy IBFX made for their clients), and many online sources that give you the daily pivot. All of them shows that the current daily pivot on eurusd should be somewhere around 1.2502-1.2508. The daily pivot you included in the update shows that the pivot is 1.2549 (on Cowboy IBFX). The price is under the daily and weekly pivot now with your indicators, but with other pivot sources, it's between the daily and the weekly. With your indicators, the daily pivot is between the weekly and monthly, but it should be below both weekly and monthly.
You wrote on the booklet, that this method will hopefully match you up with other traders who use daily pivot levels too. I don't think that too many of the traders use sunday candles to determine monday pivot, so if the goal is to match up with the mass, please take a second look into the daily pivot indicator to check if it's working as intended.

Ps: I hope my post doesn't sound too harsh or rude. English is not my native language, and sometimes it's hard to translate all my thoughts correctly :)
Yes that maybe true, and you are not harsh, it is a good observation. I will look into it but it is using the same indicator that the weekly and monthly use so they will be consistent with each other. My indicator shows that figure for Sunday but when the gaps happened and changed to Monday it reset the pivot to reflect the gap in Monday's math. So the Sunday pivot agrees but with the switch to Monday it adjusted. That may or may not be a problem but for me the new adjusted Monday gave me a bunch of profitable trades since it set higher on the chart and i entered many trades on the cross. The updating after the gaps gives a more accurate pivot for the day. I think the rest of the week they will be about the same. You are going to have a hard time convincing me of changing with this indicator updating after the gaps rather then setting the pivot before the gaps. I have nailed 380 pips in profit for the day and still have some running. Here is the eur/usd chart and shows that both yours and updated pivots on the chart. See red arrows. Updating after the gap made for better trades, at least for today. See pic.
Bob you mean you short at close below DP. Why? DT is when DP is below WP and MP which is not the case here. Please explain. Thanks
Author:  nanningbob [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
forexripper wrote:
nanningbob wrote:
Zool wrote:Hi Bob!

I'm currently looking at your 10.2A update. I found that the monday daily pivot is calculated from the sunday candle (if there's a sunday candle). I've checked many other daily pivot indicators (even the one Cowboy IBFX Cowboy IBFX made for their clients), and many online sources that give you the daily pivot. All of them shows that the current daily pivot on eurusd should be somewhere around 1.2502-1.2508. The daily pivot you included in the update shows that the pivot is 1.2549 (on Cowboy IBFX). The price is under the daily and weekly pivot now with your indicators, but with other pivot sources, it's between the daily and the weekly. With your indicators, the daily pivot is between the weekly and monthly, but it should be below both weekly and monthly.
You wrote on the booklet, that this method will hopefully match you up with other traders who use daily pivot levels too. I don't think that too many of the traders use sunday candles to determine monday pivot, so if the goal is to match up with the mass, please take a second look into the daily pivot indicator to check if it's working as intended.

Ps: I hope my post doesn't sound too harsh or rude. English is not my native language, and sometimes it's hard to translate all my thoughts correctly :)
Yes that maybe true, and you are not harsh, it is a good observation. I will look into it but it is using the same indicator that the weekly and monthly use so they will be consistent with each other. My indicator shows that figure for Sunday but when the gaps happened and changed to Monday it reset the pivot to reflect the gap in Monday's math. So the Sunday pivot agrees but with the switch to Monday it adjusted. That may or may not be a problem but for me the new adjusted Monday gave me a bunch of profitable trades since it set higher on the chart and i entered many trades on the cross. The updating after the gaps gives a more accurate pivot for the day. I think the rest of the week they will be about the same. You are going to have a hard time convincing me of changing with this indicator updating after the gaps rather then setting the pivot before the gaps. I have nailed 380 pips in profit for the day and still have some running. Here is the eur/usd chart and shows that both yours and updated pivots on the chart. See red arrows. Updating after the gap made for better trades, at least for today. See pic.
Bob you mean you short at close below DP. Why? DT is when DP is below WP and MP which is not the case here. Please explain. Thanks
We are in the middle where price is between the monthly and weekly pivots on many pairs. As I said in my booklets taking the crossing of WP will almost always bring you a decent trade. I mean the eur/usd trade was a no brainer. Price bounced off the monthly pivot, broke through the daily pivot and headed for the weekly. Daily slope still has sell bias and the news out of Europe again is not good. Spain needs a bail out, now Ireland wants one, the Germans are saying no and the Greeks are giving the rest of Europe the finger with some political groups trying to sabotage the elections. There is no reason whatsoever to put a buy on the EURO. It has no reason to go up right now. My second eur/usd trade is now over 60 pips to the good and if I closed all my trades now I would have gotten over 500 pips on a Monday which, dang is darn good. Maybe one of my best Mondays of all time. I also have played the gaps for years and have experience trading them. 10.2A came on real strong for me today. :D
Author:  forexripper [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 3:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
forexripper wrote:Thanks Bob and Steve for all your guidance and hard work. So now we all the tools to trade succesfully. The only thing now I am struggling with is to find a way to identify pairs to trade each day. I am thinking of the following steps and need your advice on it:

1) starting with Baluda's currency slope strength indicator to alert me of crosses at Asia open
2) look at the dashboard (made available on one of the threads here) to see D1 and H4 strengths of that pair. Both to be above 0.4 or below -0.4
3) go to the chart with new MP, WP, DP and confirm the trend identified in #2
4) trade that pair using 10.2 template and method
5) Use MPTM to manage the trade/s.

The above steps are for trend trades.

For range trades during UP or DT, I am thinking of looking at the dashboard and identify pairs with D1 still above 0.4 or below -0.4 but H4 in range mode. Confirm trend with MP, WP, DP and trade the pair accordingly. So, buy when close back above DP and sell when close back below DP according to the trend only (no CT for me).

These will be all manully done by me until a good EA capturing 10.2 method completely emerges here.

E.g. Trend trade - only EURNZD short
Range in UT or DT - e.g. GU is Range in DT but when DP is above WP so no trade with this pair on the other hand GBPAUD has DT on D1 and range on H4 and new template confirms DT. Price gets rejected of DP so Short this pair @ 1.5607

Please advise. Thanks
Bob would apprciate your advice on this too.
Thanks
Author:  Zool [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 4:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
nanningbob wrote:anyways the difference is caused by the weekend gaps. Without those gaps the pivot would be the same. So the question would be, do you want the updated pivot or the standard pivot based on Friday? Sometimes like today the update was a benefit. I would be interested in knowing what your S1/R1 lines are on the standard pivot. If my pivot is your R1 then you could have made the same trades. The logic being bouncing off of the monthly pivot and breaking back down through R1 on your chart. Let me know if you see that scenario.
The updated pivot is about the same as the R2 on the standard pivot. The standard pivot's R1 is around the weekly pivot. Here are the numbers:
R2: 1.2638
R1: 1.2568
PP: 1.2502
S1: 1.2432
S2: 1.2365

Are you using this updated rules on all of your trades now? So there are no S1/R1 and S2/R2 groups, and no MA crosses, only pivot crosses?

Unfortunatelly today I had no time to trade, so I only checked some pairs during the day, made a sell on EURNZD, that's still running good. Also made a buy on NZDCHF, I was a little late on this one, but I will be good on it if it reaches weekly R1.
Author:  astral77 [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 5:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
BOB

I think ZOOL has a valid point here, in particular with regard to the idea of taking advantage of the "HERD" mentality in and around pivot points. I would be most grateful if you could look into this and let us know what you think. I checked dailyfax and dukascopy for EURUSD and they are giving 1.2507 and 1.2508 and Cowboy IBFX is 1.2506. So the herd is taking this as the pivot.

I have been following the discussions regarding this point in FF and would be very interested to know your arguments for and against.

Kind regards
Author:  spotdespot [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 8:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
astral77 wrote:BOB

I think ZOOL has a valid point here, in particular with regard to the idea of taking advantage of the "HERD" mentality in and around pivot points. I would be most grateful if you could look into this and let us know what you think. I checked dailyfax and dukascopy for EURUSD and they are giving 1.2507 and 1.2508 and Cowboy IBFX is 1.2506. So the herd is taking this as the pivot.

I have been following the discussions regarding this point in FF and would be very interested to know your arguments for and against.

Kind regards
I have to agree (ActionForex has 1.2507) NB10.2 is fantastic Bob - thank you - but i think if it used the same pivots everyone else is using, long term it would make more pips. I appreciate you made some pips today because of where the pivots were drawn but I would humbly suggest that might be the exception rather then the norm - i.e. you might have been a little fortunate with where the pivot(s) ended up as it wasn't what the herd were using ;)
Author:  grimweasel [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 10:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
Looks very interesting Bob -to me this makes the trend EVEN clearer than the 3 MAs. If the daily, weekly and monthly are in order, you have your trend when combined with the slope and open indys.

I fouled up the gap plays today because I thought the trend had changed with Fridays price action on the candle charts. I know that Hedge Funds will always try to 'close the gaps' but I was trying to stick with the new daily trend and not Counter Trend trade the gap close. I was waiting for the gap to fully close and then trade back long. Well, did this on crude today off the H1 chart and got burned. I should have stuck by Al Brooks rules (from his excellent book Trading Price Action Charts Bar by Bar) and traded each pullback short to the 20ema on the M15 chart.

I'm hoping that 10.2a provides even stronger reads on what way we should be trading regardless of price action per se.

Thanks again Bob for the continued teaching and refinements!
Author:  nanningbob [ Mon Jun 11, 2012 11:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.2 forum
Let us play out the week on this pivot thing. If todays pivot agrees closely with everyone else then the problem is the gaps on Monday. In the long run if this is the way it is played out, I dont think it will be a problem if we understand this is the problem. Again it is a test version so let us run the test and see. To me the bounce off of the monthly pivot and R2 would still be a great play on the market.

Since price did not break the monthly pivot we would not be into a new trend. That is the key point. This is very important to understand in trading. Whenever there is a big move the market always stops to take a breather. We just got done with a big move south on a lot of currencies. Now they will range for a while. The market extablished a low and then establishes a high. This becomes the new range. From this new range we will then be on the lookout for a break into a new trend. Historically the summer is a range time. Unless we get some more happy news from Europe or another big sovereign going belly up. I think the market just established its new range. What to look for now is price moving up and bouncing off of the monthly pivot or its previous swing low for a break out. Until either moment arrives that is probably where price will settle for the summer.

HOWEVER, we could be in for one heck of a wild ride with some unusual not really seen before news stories. We are living in very turbulent times and that daily pivot will tell us if price is going to play above or below it. My thoughts on it right now is it will be a better indicator than the 3 MA lines. Only testing will tell.

Let us wait and compare pivot lines for the rest of the week and then see if the pivot compares with the norm. I can deal with an updated pivot off of the gaps on Monday. If we all understand that is what it does then we can deal with it. If the pivot is off all week long then we will have to make an adjustment.

Right now you will have to forgive me but I knocked down 750+ pips Monday with those bad pivot points but I understand your point and it is a concern. Lets watch for the week and see if it settles and agrees with the others or the rest of the week.

When I first became a trader I was taught daily pivot points by Peter Bain in his book and course Trading like the Big Dogs. I never got the hang of it but he did teach that some traders will update their pivot every session and he also taught that once a pivot is broken it is broken and price will eventually go that way. My problem then was I traded too big of lots to account size and I couldnt wait out the bounces. Now I do. :)
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