stevehopwoodforex.com • Zigzag Bollinger Band

Author:

snailbeard [ Wed Jul 16, 2014 3:18 pm ]

Post subject:

Rising bread crumbs

The basic entry signal method is giving signals at useful times. Anyone who goes through these extracts from the log file and cross references them to the charts should discover an apparent anomaly, it looks like a bug at first but its more of a workaround, but if you spot it then you deserve a Blue Peter Badge

Anyway, the first part explains why there is not much happening, then the count of frequency of signals gives an idea about robustness, symmetry/asymmetry and consistancy. Then finally a look at a couple signals to see if they make sense. These are currently limited to M15 so very fast price action could be missed. The signals alone are not much use without a trading plan so that is the next task:

Code: Select all


20140714.log:27755: 13:31:42 2014.07.08 : NO Trading TODAY: bD1ATR_TooLowToTrade.
20140714.log:27784: 13:31:42 2014.07.09 : NO Trading TODAY: bD1ATR_TooLowToTrade.
20140714.log:27812: 13:31:42 2014.07.10 : NO Trading TODAY: bD1ATR_TooLowToTrade.
20140714.log:27840: 13:31:42 2014.07.11 : NO Trading TODAY: bD1ATR_TooLowToTrade.
20140714.log:27868: 13:31:42 2014.07.14 : NO Trading TODAY: bD1ATR_TooLowToTrade.
Found 5 matches for "NO Trading TODAY: bD1ATR_TooLowToTrade".
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Found 998 matches for "bDpM15H1RisingBreak: 0, bDpM15H1FallingBreak: 0".
Found 104 matches for "bDpM15H1RisingBreak: 1, bDpM15H1FallingBreak: 0".
Found 22 matches for "bDpM15H1RisingBreak: 0, bDpM15H1FallingBreak: 1".

Found 975 matches for "bWpM15H1RisingBreak: 0, bWpM15H1FallingBreak: 0".
Found 132 matches for "bWpM15H1RisingBreak: 1, bWpM15H1FallingBreak: 0".
Found 17 matches for "bWpM15H1RisingBreak: 0, bWpM15H1FallingBreak: 1".

========================================================================
13:31:39 2014.07.01 04:00 

bPriceActionIsUp: 1
st_DualM15EmaDirection: 1
st_bPriceCloseToDP: 1
st_bPriceAboveDP: 1
st_bPriceCloseToWP: 1
st_bPriceAboveWP: 0
------------------------
bDpM15H1RisingBreak: 1 <-- signal to enter a buy trade

15:21:25 2014.07.01 04:00 : Potential Buy at DP: bDpM15H1RisingBreak

----------------------------------------------------------------------
----------------------------------------------------------------------

13:31:39 2014.07.01 15:00  

st_bM15MbbAboveH1MBb: 1
st_bH1MbbSlopeUp: 1
------------------------
bDpM15H1RisingBreak: 1 <-- signal to enter a buy trade

----------------------------------------------------------------------
Also from the main method:

13:31:39 2014.07.01 15:00 : Trade because:  bBreakH4ORFB  bBreakD1ORFB 
----------------------------------------------------------------------

Log: 16:15:08 2014.07.01 08:30 : PBRE Buy entry dropped because bD1ZzReversingDown || bH4ZzReversingDown : 0, 1 Log: 16:15:08 2014.07.01 08:30 : Potential Buy at DP: bDpM15H1RisingBreak... 1 2014.07.01 08:51 buy 1 0.33 0.94526 0.00000 0.00000 0.00 10000.00 2 2014.07.01 08:51 modify 1 0.33 0.94526 0.94214 0.94630 0.00 10000.00 3 2014.07.01 09:04 t/p 1 0.33 0.94630 0.94214 0.94630 32.01 10032.01 Log: 16:15:08 2014.07.01 16:00 : Potential Buy at DP: bDpM15H1RisingBreak... 4 2014.07.01 16:02 buy 2 0.67 0.94792 0.00000 0.00000 0.00 10032.01 5 2014.07.01 16:02 modify 2 0.67 0.94792 0.94630 0.95046 0.00 10032.01 6 2014.07.01 19:56 t/p 2 0.67 0.95046 0.94630 0.95046 165.49 10197.50 Log: 6:15:09 2014.07.02 14:30 : Potential Sell at WP: bWpM15H1FallingBreak 7 2014.07.02 14:31 sell 3 0.34 0.94553 0.00000 0.00000 0.00 10197.50 8 2014.07.02 14:31 modify 3 0.34 0.94553 0.94854 0.93654 0.00 10197.50 9 2014.07.03 04:01 modify 3 0.34 0.94553 0.94553 0.93654 0.00 10197.50 10 2014.07.03 04:31 modify 3 0.34 0.94553 0.93852 0.93654 0.00 10197.50 11 2014.07.03 04:32 modify 3 0.34 0.94553 0.93850 0.93654 0.00 10197.50 12 2014.07.03 04:33 s/l 3 0.34 0.93850 0.93850 0.93654 227.15 10424.65 Log: 16:15:09 2014.07.03 10:00 : Potential Sell at WP: bWpM15H1FallingBreak 13 2014.07.03 10:01 sell 4 0.35 0.93664 0.00000 0.00000 0.00 10424.65 14 2014.07.03 10:01 modify 4 0.35 0.93664 0.93967 0.92767 0.00 10424.65 15 2014.07.03 15:31 modify 4 0.35 0.93664 0.93664 0.92767 0.00 10424.65 16 2014.07.04 07:08 s/l 4 0.35 0.93664 0.93664 0.92767 -5.71 10418.95

Author:	snailbeard [ Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:47 am ]
Post subject:	Still making some good trades
Although, it might be better to turn ZZBB off for the time being, it is not all bad news. It can still do some profitable trading. In the forward demo test it did have two out of three profitable trades:

Author:	SpiderX [ Fri Jul 11, 2014 6:55 am ]
Post subject:	Zigzag Bollinger Band
Hi Snailbeard, Maybe you can consider some of the ideas from here: http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 719#p95638 http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... 682#p94504 and see if it helps your system. Though we have to caution that this gives your system a grid-like behavior to a certain extent. Best to be use to complement a working system, and not recommended to be used to resuscitate a dying one. Cheers

Author:	snailbeard [ Sun Jul 13, 2014 1:45 pm ]
Post subject:	Zigzag Bollinger Band
Hi SpiderX, It looks very interesting, I will definitely read more when I have finished the current round of changes.

Author:	snailbeard [ Wed Jul 16, 2014 10:49 am ]
Post subject:	Low volatility trickle trades
I have been experimenting with low volatility trading. It has been a bit fiddly to make sure everything needed still gets computed, because some volatility checks mean the later calculations get skipped if they are not needed for the primary trading method. However, most of what is needed is the same but the trading range is compressed. However, daily pivots are more important during low volatility. The target pips could be as little as 20 pips but probably not worth the cost/risk of trading for smaller targets by these methods. So should we look to snatch profits between pairs of daily pivots? In the first chart (AUDUSD D1) I looked at the daily outlook which is still up but losing momentum: PreTrickleTrade30June2014.png If the D1 chart shows the run up to the next day, then the H4 chart shows an overview of the day unfolding and we can see the Open-Reverse-Forward-Break could produce a couple of good trades. The weekly pivots are fairly close together and if use weekly pivots then WR1 is easily achieved but WR2 is ambitious since we are not going to hold onto trades for too long or enter too far from the 'start' . There is more work to do on calculating targets, holding onto to profits and preventing reverses into losses, but allowing enough space for trades to work: LowVolatilityTrickleTrade-H4-AUDUSD-01Jul2014.png Finally, looking at M15 with daily pivots, we can see how the day unfolds in more detail. Price reaches both DR3 and WR2 and yet the days total range is about 90 pips. This is almost twice the current ATR for D1. Therefore, the safe target would be 20 to 30 pips. We do not know in advance that we can squeeze 50 pips out of this trade. Nevertheless, we can monitor price action in one of several ways, but in essence if there is a good price slope we could be more optimistic about the target. Can we nudge the target to the next pivot if we calculate good momentum? Can we follow behind with a trailing stop without strangling the trade? LowVolatilityTrickleTrades-M15AUDUSD01Jul2014.png

Author:	snailbeard [ Sun Jul 20, 2014 5:25 am ]
Post subject:	Bug fixes and sanity checks
After going through the results carefully, I found a couple of bugs and added some sanity checks to prevent trading at the extremes. Although the profit in this small test is less, the result over more data should be better.

stevehopwoodforex.com https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/ Print view

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Author:	snailbeard [ Mon Jul 21, 2014 5:44 pm ]
Post subject:	5 Month backtest
After a few more tweaks the trading results for March to July are best when D1 ATR is between 50 and 70. The volatility in March was too high for this method to work well and it also did not do so well in May when volatility dropped too low:

Author:	SpiderX [ Tue Jul 22, 2014 6:51 am ]
Post subject:	Zigzag Bollinger Band
Are low volatility trades another name for scalping ? Cheers

Author:	jlcgarcia [ Thu Jul 31, 2014 4:33 pm ]
Post subject:	Zigzag Bollinger Band
jlcgarcia » Mon Jul 07, 2014 11:29 am wrote:Hi Snailbeard, I have recolected your ideas in an EA that is in myfxbook. Let's see. Regards José Luis Hi, after so many attempts, many simulations and many demo accounts, I have reached a workable solution for an EA that follows the ideas of this thread. The myfxbook link is http://www.myfxbook.com/members/jlcgarc ... ero/987853 and it is my intention to let this EA alone without modifying anything (because I am tired of the more than 150 modifications I have introduced in only a week). It is a multipair EA with good expectations. Let's see. Regards José Luis

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