10.4 A Complete System

[Gertje]

I screwed up.

Gave back nearly all pips, but due to different lotsizes the account is up nearly 3% for the week.
Became too gready, aiming too far and because of my 'improved' BE- strategy, ended up with several 2% losers.

Lesson learned, back to the original plan layed out by Bob.

I'm also very curious, if such à lousy week can add 3%, what will à GOOD week bring?

Everybody enjoy the weekend, and let's get them next week.

[Wiggy1965]

10.4 is a tool, we still need to follow the fundamentals of support and resistance...

Wiggy

Quite right. I was just testing 10.4 EA and i feel like a weakness that it ignores that sacred rules: "never buy the resistence" "never sell the support".

Zentauro, you are quite right when you say "never buy the resistence" "never sell the support" however, i feel 10.4 primary objective is to buy support and sell resistance, in the case of long trades, which is exactly what we want to do....

Bob systems is attempting to locate a support level on minor retrace of underlying trends and then utilize pivot points which as we know are resistance areas to sell or take profit....

The use of the 240 MA is designed to ensure that these trades are taken in the direction of the moment to ensure best chance of reaching your take profit level...


On a side note

Many of these short and long trades could be taken regardless of the MA, which is what most people probably have done in the past (still do) using a RSI, Shoc, Pivot of Fib to identify support and resistance level.....I think we have all tried this, i know i have, and i think bob has tried a couple of sneaky ones during the week

This introduction of the 240MA forces us to ignore (hard as old habits die hard) the obvious long trades that are below the MA and short trades above...This is why (if feel) there is so must discussion/debate around entries and interpretation of 10.4 rules....Trading is about probability, and 10.4 increases the probability of being successful.....

10.4 is new, very new, however bob has being developing this for some time....I now there have been some mixed result of the last couple of week, including me who had a bad last week...Those who had a bad week, review your trades and ask yourself again objectively, is this really a 10.4 trade...If it is, suck it up as 10.4 is not perfect, nobody has promised this.....But if the trade is not a 10.4 trade work out why you took it and what you should do to improve your entry....Most people may have one or two marginal 10.4 trades that have had an impact on their week, if you can eliminate these, it could be the difference between a 10% loss and a 10% profit....

I have had a good week, so for me the last three week have been like this GOOD, BAD, GOOD....The event of last week taught me more about 10.4 than the first and this has been observed in my excited posts in relation to trade entries on this thread during the week...I know most people a giggling now...!

Most people know i fell strongly about the RSI and the longer it is pinned, the more solid is the first move is....I am also looking to the daily chart and choosing to avoid trades that are not in the direction of the daily trend..... Most people maybe saying, this will eliminate too many trades, however i closed 18 trades during the week and i think that may have been too many....

This lends me to the next point... I think many of us are trying to find 10.4 trades thinking that we will never get another setup, this is clearly not the case, as this week was tough and there were stacks....patience.....These slow week creep up on you and you don't know it's happening until you are three days into it and all of a sudden you look at the 5 trades you have going and go, OMG why am i in those....You then have the perfect trade setup and you choose not to take it because you are over exposed on the 5 currently running....You then decide to get out of all or some of the DD trades and enter the good trade and at the end of the day you are BE or worse DD....You them watch the trades you closed provide a better entry later in the week and get closed out the next week by other for good winners....sound familiar...?

Patience, wait for a good setup and allow it to develop....my three best trades that i closed this week were open 27th and 28th of Feb and the 1st Mar and were all closed around the 14th of Mar

I now need to repeat what i did this week, next week and the week after that, this will be my challenge....

Sorry about the long post, just started typing and 30 minutes later....

Regards
Wiggy

[Gertje]

10.4 is a tool, we still need to follow the fundamentals of support and resistance...

Wiggy

Quite right. I was just testing 10.4 EA and i feel like a weakness that it ignores that sacred rules: "never buy the resistence" "never sell the support".

Zentauro, you are quite right when you say "never buy the resistence" "never sell the support" however, i feel 10.4 primary objective is to buy support and sell resistance, in the case of long trades, which is exactly what we want to do....

Bob systems is attempting to locate a support level on minor retrace of underlying trends and then utilize pivot points which as we know are resistance areas to sell or take profit....

The use of the 240 MA is designed to ensure that these trades are taken in the direction of the moment to ensure best chance of reaching your take profit level...


On a side note

Many of these short and long trades could be taken regardless of the MA, which is what most people probably have done in the past (still do) using a RSI, Shoc, Pivot of Fib to identify support and resistance level.....I think we have all tried this, i know i have, and i think bob has tried a couple of sneaky ones during the week

This introduction of the 240MA forces us to ignore (hard as old habits die hard) the obvious long trades that are below the MA and short trades above...This is why (if feel) there is so must discussion/debate around entries and interpretation of 10.4 rules....Trading is about probability, and 10.4 increases the probability of being successful.....

10.4 is new, very new, however bob has being developing this for some time....I now there have been some mixed result of the last couple of week, including me who had a bad last week...Those who had a bad week, review your trades and ask yourself again objectively, is this really a 10.4 trade...If it is, suck it up as 10.4 is not perfect, nobody has promised this.....But if the trade is not a 10.4 trade work out why you took it and what you should do to improve your entry....Most people may have one or two marginal 10.4 trades that have had an impact on their week, if you can eliminate these, it could be the difference between a 10% loss and a 10% profit....

I have had a good week, so for me the last three week have been like this GOOD, BAD, GOOD....The event of last week taught me more about 10.4 than the first and this has been observed in my excited posts in relation to trade entries on this thread during the week...I know most people a giggling now...!

Most people know i fell strongly about the RSI and the longer it is pinned, the more solid is the first move is....I am also looking to the daily chart and choosing to avoid trades that are not in the direction of the daily trend..... Most people maybe saying, this will eliminate too many trades, however i closed 18 trades during the week and i think that may have been too many....

This lends me to the next point... I think many of us are trying to find 10.4 trades thinking that we will never get another setup, this is clearly not the case, as this week was tough and there were stacks....patience.....These slow week creep up on you and you don't know it's happening until you are three days into it and all of a sudden you look at the 5 trades you have going and go, OMG why am i in those....You then have the perfect trade setup and you choose not to take it because you are over exposed on the 5 currently running....You then decide to get out of all or some of the DD trades and enter the good trade and at the end of the day you are BE or worse DD....You them watch the trades you closed provide a better entry later in the week and get closed out the next week by other for good winners....sound familiar...?

Patience, wait for a good setup and allow it to develop....my three best trades that i closed this week were open 27th and 28th of Feb and the 1st Mar and were all closed around the 14th of Mar

I now need to repeat what i did this week, next week and the week after that, this will be my challenge....

Sorry about the long post, just started typing and 30 minutes later....

Regards
Wiggy

I fully agree, good post!

[Dewey McG]

After all was said and done, I made 169 pips with NB 10.4 this week. I still made plenty of mistakes but am up 1188 pips since I started using this. Not a huge gain in dollar terms, but I have been trading very small lots to get a feel of the system first.

Going forward I want to price action use some of CJ's ideas to see if I can get earlier (and better) entries as well as better exits when price reverses. I will experiment with that part on demo while just trading 10.4 rules live.

[Dewey McG]

I wanted to address an issue I have seen a few people talk about: carrying a trade over the weekend.

I think this is a very risky practice, especially on the AUD or JPY crosses or any less liquid pairs. You are leaving yourself exposed to events over which you have no control. If some big global event happens over the weekend, your stop losses will not hold if the market opens well past them.

There is another reason. As the market slows down towards close of business on Friday, you are leaving yourself open to a sudden spike and widening of spread that could take out (and even blow past) your SL's. Here is a PIC of one on Friday on the 1 min chart just as market closed. Sometimes these are rogue “anomalous price spikes” that your broker will correct (hopefully), but some are real.

I happen to think my broker is one of the good guys. After dealing with one of these (and fixing my trade) a while back he explained the risk to me in more detail:

It isn't the volatility caused by news etc, that is an entirely different scenario, whereby any liquidity is depleted super quickly or the prices quotes are pulled and revised equally as quickly. This scenario is the same as a rollover scenario where the is almost no liquidity. As each bank stops quoting then the market becomes less competitive until there are a just a handful of banks left that are offering prices and their prices happen to be super wide.

In normal times there are perhaps only five or six major banks making the market for any AUD crosses, whilst there may be as many as 20 or so banks that are actually quoting prices. Imagine a 'ladder' at the top of the ladder is the best price, the next rung has the next best price and so on. As the major banks that are making market for the AUD pairs stop quoting they drop off the ladder and thus the best price becomes the rung lower. After they've all disappeared you are left with the 'worst' quotes, still perfectly valid, but not from the major AUD players. Perhaps these are speculative quotes from the banks that specialize in JPY pairs for example.

So it isn't a question of news it is a question of liquidity which was essentially gone as the key banks had left the market.

Just FYI this isn't just confined to the AUDNZD this happens to all pairs. One by one the banks stop quoting and thus the market becomes less competitive. The EURUSD which is the most liquid pair quoted widens its prices to maybe 50pips sometimes at market close. This is why market close and carrying positions over the weekend and thus becoming exposed to such events as this and possible gaps are the most dangerous possible trading conditions.

[DocT]

I agree it was a challenging week but even so NB 10.4 is a brilliant system. I get the feeling that I trade more conservatively than many here, especially Bob himself, since I only took 18 trades to his 58! But with 18 trades I had 2 losses (one quite large due to incorrect lot size), 8 B/E closures and 8 winners for 275 pips! This equates to 6.43% gain for my account so I am delighted with this.

Thanks Bob and congratulations on your 10 years

Doc

[nanningbob]

After all was said and done, I made 169 pips with NB 10.4 this week. I still made plenty of mistakes but am up 1188 pips since I started using this. Not a huge gain in dollar terms, but I have been trading very small lots to get a feel of the system first.

Going forward I want to price action use some of CJ's ideas to see if I can get earlier (and better) entries as well as better exits when price reverses. I will experiment with that part on demo while just trading 10.4 rules live.

Juat put the blank screen on the board and only have the 240 line. 1 indi and trade naked. I think you will like it. You wont get the multiple levels like we use here but you can blend the two to make a workable system.

[MurphyMan]

New addition to Post #1 of the Dummies thread. It's a compilation of Bob's Pearls of Wisdom from this thread - plus anything else I think might be relevant.

Here it is: http://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3 ... =37&t=1504

[zentauro67]

After all was said and done, I made 169 pips with NB 10.4 this week. I still made plenty of mistakes but am up 1188 pips since I started using this. Not a huge gain in dollar terms, but I have been trading very small lots to get a feel of the system first.

Going forward I want to price action use some of CJ's ideas to see if I can get earlier (and better) entries as well as better exits when price reverses. I will experiment with that part on demo while just trading 10.4 rules live.

Juat put the blank screen on the board and only have the 240 line. 1 indi and trade naked. I think you will like it. You wont get the multiple levels like we use here but you can blend the two to make a workable system.

Quite interesting Dewey´s post about weekend trading. Naked trading with 240 MA is a good point to start before using pivots as entry levels. Pivots work fine but sometimes, when they match S/R levels, may be safer ignore them and draw breakout lines in previous swings highs or lows. These lines can be very close to pivots (some pips) but it could make the whole difference.

[Captain Jack]

how'd everyone do this week?

i was + 240 pips on monday.. after that, the week went completely backward. pending orders hit, and reversed instantly hitting most of my stop losses. except for the nzdusd trade, i got out because of high risk news. that one went in my favor but i was already out hours before it hit. i just don't trust the news after losing so much during the releases so i just shut down nzdusd at -30 pips. by thursday now i'm back to where i started at the beginning of the week. every single trade reversed as soon as they were triggered. oh well.. gonna keep working at it. hopefully not another crap session next week. capital is running quick. 10.4 is a good system, but this week it couldn't help me. on to the next ..

If you really want to improve, post some of your charts showing where you enter, where you exit and your reasons for doing so. There are a lot of experienced traders here who could give guidance but without the correct info, we can't really be of much help to you.

We all make mistakes. Most times I have multiple orders on a pair and I use a script that closes all trades for a symbol to manage them. When closing my trades Friday, I was dragging the scrip to a window and I must have released the mouse button too soon...script hit the wrong window and closed out 3 trades that I have just put on a few minutes before that. That mistake cost me hundreds of dollars. The trade windows were tiled at the time so I could save time...Lesson learned....no more tiled windows when closing my trades. I will now only open the trade window that I wish to drop the script on.

How you handle your mistakes makes all the difference. Learn from them, don't repeat them and they turn into experience. I can tell you, I have a lot of experience!

CJ



CJ