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The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
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Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:05 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
mjws00 wrote:
Captain Jack wrote:
CJ
Heh. I love it, CJ. You are playing "a level deeper" as we'd say in Poker. I can do this chart in orderflow perspective as well. Thought you were going for straight up price action. :) As you said it is much much harder to do in real time. But we can easily see trapped bulls, bears, and the frustration the market makers have caused in the past. Reading intent is another game.

Hope you stick around, I promise you'll have at the very least one sponge. Hurry up already ;) You may be able to tell this dimension excites the hell out of me. Reminds me of trading lvl2 on the nasdaq.

Thanks again for sharing your wisdom.

Mike
Love Texas Hold'em and used LvlII on NASDAQ when I day traded back in the good old days. Now forex catches my eye.

Sorry if I caught ya off guard with the price action wording. Like I say, Al Brooks and places like Your Trading Coach can do a great job on the specifics from a professional stand point. I'm a mix of psychology, patterns, habits, traits, ticks and tricks of price and a very different way of looking at the forex market and what makes price do what it does. It's really hard to explain, especially when I start showing you "price projections". Sometimes I feel like a modern day hunter, who uses a game camera to show him the foxes feeding time and location. Then all I have to do is show up on time. ;)

I've been a member here for a long time. Just haven't been very active. Can't promise I'll be regular, but I'm here for the moment.

I'll be putting up a series of charts explaining what I see happening on the chart. In the mean time, chew on this one. Just an idea I have.....

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 2:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
garyfritz wrote:Oh he'll have more than one sponge, be sure of that! I would give pieces of my anatomy to be able to trade like CJ does. I don't know if I can train myself to think like he does, but I'm tryin' ...
Like I've said Gary, pay your local "herbal vendor" a visit and free your mind my friend. :D

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:40 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
trueblueTEX wrote:Hello Captain Jack! I will be following this thread with open eyes.

What little I've read from you over the last couple of days reminds me of another gentleman whom I've met elsewhere and who tried to explain this to me before. Hopefully, this will stir up his teachings in my mind. I already hear some distant echoes growing louder.

Thanks
TEX
Welcome aboard Tex. I wish somebody would have tried to explain this stuff to me....could have saved me many years and hundreds of hours...but then again, I might not have ended up with the same conclusions that I have now....

I hope you are able to pick something up within the thread and don't be afraid to jump into the fray.

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 4:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Here's some of my thoughts on the action from "A" through "C" on the EURGBP pair..... BTW, .8755 is an area of interest for me here on this long trade....

CJ
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Brilliant narrative. This looks like a truly superb shakeout by big smart money. I'll let someone else give it a shot before I see if I can even get close on further letters. I seem to get lost at the hard right edge with this style of analysis. We end up in no mans land with a bit of a floor.

Not sure what stopped price at A and D, would have faded C all day long, took profit at the bear flag and out near the bottom. Unlikely to reverse and long it, not clever enough. Would sell E for small BE trade. Went long on the Break of E towards F, punched out in the chop/pause. Left the monday gap alone. Then we are sideways.

So. Crapload of optimistic bulls stuck at H. Some trapped bears on the fake at I. J is a nice little turn to get the bears watching C,E,J aboard. Heh, and it is good enough to bias me short. So I will sell into their fake turn at J and get stuck short while they drive it and stop at F... there I will sell into F and they will take a quick run south to get more bears onboard before driving it to and slightly through H to steal the stops and trigger the selling, before driving it south hard having accumulated very nicely between 0.8755 and 08800.

LOL. Thanks for opening a beautiful can of worms. Now I can officially confuse myself by going way too meta on this. Hopefully we only need one level. Learnin and lovin it. I'll give you a chuckle if nothing else. I thought we just sold when the yellow line crosses the blue. ;)

Mike
Author:  Jason [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 6:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
This is kind of how I'm thinking nowadays too. Well... Minus the blood and puke :p

How do you manage to pick when it's turning?
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:03 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Just For Fun Captain. A quick analysis with no Meta. I took the pivots off for clutters sake.

A - RSI way OB, Outside Band, Pinbar, Pivot there. Sell.
B - Exit at Band, RSI OS, Pivot there. Buy
C - Lower High, Top of Band, RSI Less strength, Pivot, Sell
D - RSI OS, Pivot, Momentum into Band, Buy
E - RSI, Band, Pivot, Sell
F - Same, Double top as well.
G - Same - but weekend. Depends on trader.
H - Looking to Reverse, Fill gap? Punish stuck bulls, I'm not a gap trader in forex, like em elsewhere.
I - Band trade, RSI not pegged slightly less downward pressure, but price has plummeted. Bears weakening
J,K Meandering.

We don't really get sucked into the traps set by the market makers at all. Though not nearly as fun or sophisticated in our analysis. If I was flying naked on a 15minute chart scalping, they would chop me up in here.

Too off topic? What do you think?

Mike
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 7:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
erikskenne wrote:Thanks Commander

What I see first is the yellow line which is some kind of middle line from were prize stretch out from and snap back to, dealing range maybe, then I see that lines as former support becomes resistance are very important to pay attention to. Also wait to set yr order until after news release. Just my newbie 2cent
I didn't forget your post as I was saving it for later reply...delivered now.

Yes, the yellow line tends to stand out and grab your attention. I mentioned earlier that price is always moving, returning to previous levels and that it is drawn to some areas and levels more frequently than others. Round numbers, sweet spots, pivots, support & resistance, fibo and gann numbers. Everything we use as tools of the trade as well as some I've missed. Areas that we seek out in our search for profits. Areas to begin and end trades. In other words, all of the areas that both bulls and bears frequent together. We've all heard it, "the bulls and bears are fighting it out here" yada yada... But in reality, it's not the bulls and the bears who control price, it's the fox or the shark or any number of larger predators who are also attracted to these "areas of interest" that price seems so drawn to. Remember also that I say price is driven to a point with intent.

My question to you is, do bulls and bears create these areas of interest with their tools of trade, or are these areas created by something else, to draw the bulls and bears together in a small area?

Hunters, who are predators, will sometimes use sound, corn, feed, meat, scent, dogs, other hunters, and numerous other methods to draw their prey to them. Sometimes, herding it into a smaller, confined area. Once the prey is within easy reach, it's an easy kill. Once trapped in a confined area, it's like shooting fish in a barrel.

Consider the question posed above again and think on this. Is price drawn to these "areas of interest" because of some tool we use, or because a numerical ratio says it is, or is price driven to these areas to trap bulls and bears into a feeding zone for the sharks, wolves, jackals and fox that "hunt" the same areas we do? Are the tools and indicators not the "bait" the fox uses to trap the bulls and bears? Trapping them in a confined area where confusion, pain and panic set it in?

Take a look at this chart. Notice the tick volume as this "event" unfolds.

In my opinion, the yellow line and all lines like it are the "bait" that draws the most number of traders, both bulls and bears, into a killing zone. Most will leave it with lighter accounts.

You can make a lot of money in these areas when you recognize the sign. This is a 4hr chart and time moves slow. Traders are not focused on the broad picture, but tend to have "tunnel vision". Their focus is tight and narrow. Also note the "pins" that appear at a lot of the turning point - the tracks of the fox. When these occur on the lower time frames, scalpers get their asses handed to them do to the speed of the swings. Again, this is a "dirty" pattern with seeds of deception sown in. . They usually don't worry about covering it as much in the lower time frame but in the higher ones, you have more time to analyze it.

CJ
Author:  Captain Jack [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 8:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
mjws00 wrote:Just For Fun Captain. A quick analysis with no Meta. I took the pivots off for clutters sake.

A - RSI way OB, Outside Band, Pinbar, Pivot there. Sell.
B - Exit at Band, RSI OS, Pivot there. Buy
C - Lower High, Top of Band, RSI Less strength, Pivot, Sell
D - RSI OS, Pivot, Momentum into Band, Buy
E - RSI, Band, Pivot, Sell
F - Same, Double top as well.
G - Same - but weekend. Depends on trader.
H - Looking to Reverse, Fill gap? Punish stuck bulls, I'm not a gap trader in forex, like em elsewhere.
I - Band trade, RSI not pegged slightly less downward pressure, but price has plummeted. Bears weakening
J,K Meandering.

We don't really get sucked into the traps set by the market makers at all. Though not nearly as fun or sophisticated in our analysis. If I was flying naked on a 15minute chart scalping, they would chop me up in here.

Too off topic? What do you think?

Mike
Nothing's off topic here Mike. :)

As it's presented, it looks great, but do you trade it that way and were those trades completed? If you did, it's not per 10.4 rules. When you add the lines back in, that picture changes quiet a bit with smaller gains and BE trades.

I've mentioned in Bob's thread that he has a well designed system that makes it easy for people to learn to trade. I've expanded on the fact that Bob says that people tend to rely on "helpers" to find trades as opposed to learning why conditions exist for taking a trade.

I've been a member here for years and I consider a lot of the users here more experienced than the every day Joe who hits the pirate sites everyday, downloading all the systems and EA's he or she can get their hands on. Looking for the "grail", spending all their time, on stuff that does not work, when they should be learning the basics of trading. But everybody has a different skill set as well as experience and no matter how you lay out the rules for the posted chart, people will lose money using it. Not everybody, but some will. That's evident in all the threads where there is a given rule set, that every trader uses, but not all the traders end with the same results.

I've said early in this thread that I don't advocate people dropping everything they know and joining me on a naked chart, only to consider what is going on behind the scenes.

I posted this move on a 4hr chart so it would be easy to see. It happened over a period of a month. The same pattern repeats over all the time frames, and it's on the lower time frames that the trapping becomes a critical element of the move as you don't have time to react. Not everybody trades the H4 or D1 time frames, I live on them and play on the lower ones.

The sooner you recognize this pattern, the sooner you would learn when to take earlier entry into the trades on a 10.4 template, when to stay in them longer and when to shorten your SL to 10-15 pips.

All I promise if a look into a very radical way of trading and a view from the other side of the glass. Here's the chart with the lines added....your trade results won't be near the same. You may just want to use Bob's 5.1MA, chuck all the rest and swing trade it. Whadda you think?

What works for each individual is what is important.

CJ
Author:  mjws00 [ Wed Mar 06, 2013 9:17 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Heh. I ain't a stock systems guy, and don't look for grails. That's part of the reason it took me a while to get over here. I've seen a couple great traders crush it in real time. But most find little value in posting and move on quickly. I trade zones and price, and like yourself am always always thinking about who is on the other side of my trade.

But just like that infrared camera can help you track the fox, I don't mind a little early warning on a possible set up. Just to see where that fox might be hunting. :)

Glad I wasn't too far out of line. (And yes I posted and took a bunch of counter 10.4 trades in real time)

Mike

EDIT: And I do promise not to get off topic. :)
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