TraderDesk GBP/JPY Trades

[TraderDesk]

1:40pm

Not much action going on at all. Taking a look at the 30 minute TF it is not a place where I would like to get into the market.

09-Sep-13 1-36-10 PM.png

Also 4 hour TF shows STO in OB level and we could see a reversal soon.

09-Sep-13 1-33-46 PM.png

This is the type of waiting I will have to endure until price action makes up it mind.

[monkeh]

A little off topic but I need to say it.

Of course I see many people who try to copy/emulate another trader in their quest to become successful. The problem I see is that they don't learn about the underlying asset class in the market they are attempting to trade in. Does not matter who you copy if you do not know the market intimately that your trading in. I am all for learning from traders who are successful but first learn the basics and get a detail feel for your asset class. It's like watching a Masterchef then copying what they do without know the basics of being a chef.

thank you for sharing! lately i am just a silent lurker, but ill pull my ear up to listen to what you have to say.
keep on going please

[TraderDesk]

Sept. 10 2013:
9.59am local

Strong continuation of the bull trend. Only if price action closes below 156 will bias change.

10-Sep-13 9-48-40 AM 4 hour.png

The 30 minute chart shows the same.

10-Sep-13 9-51-04 AM 30 minute.png

I will wait for a bias change before my trading really starts as I don't want to be last on the move up... I will look for any counter-trend moves as well....

[TraderDesk]

Sept. 11 2013:
9:10am local

Good morning. Looking at the 4 hour chart I can see we are still in a bull bias but STO is still in a deep OB level.

11-Sep-13 9-00-42 AM 4 hour.png

Looking at my intra-day chart also shows the the bias is firmly in the bull's corner. As long as price action stays above 157.5 level then the bias is bullish. If price action goes below the above level then we should be looking at a retrace off of the 4 hour or swing chart possible to the 156 level...

11-Sep-13 9-05-00 AM 30 minute.png

Looking at my orderbook not yet too much action this morning... Let's see if the retrace takes hold this morning...

market depth.png

[TraderDesk]

First sign of a retrace but let's see what happens in the next two hours...

11-Sep-13 11-05-28 AM 30 minute.png

[TraderDesk]

There is a spike up due to a GBP positive news realease but still do not see a follow-thru. If price action stalls and heads back down there might be profit taking and then a quicker drop towards 157...

11-Sep-13 12-11-18 PM 30 minute.png

I had decided to open yesterday a counter-trend position looking for at least 155 level to be touched but I have to be careful as like all counter-trend positions it is more risky...

[TraderDesk]

Sept. 12 2013:
8:10am local

Good morning,

It seems that price action on the intra-day chart(30 minute TF) has turned bearish. Now I will look at continuing to playing a counter-trend strategy but if price action goes above 157.90 level then the bear bias is in jeopardy.

12-Sep-13 8-03-56 AM 30 minute.png

So for now price action is bear mode for today so I will look to trade accordingly.

[TraderDesk]

Yesterday I was talking about how I am waiting for the bias to turn from a bull to a bear for the intra-day market. Well I can see it with just the price action only. You can see with the chart where from very early yesterday morning price action was leveling off. I would then see the occasional spike up with the main body of the candle much further down.

Then there were two attempts to break the HA line which failed. When I saw that after the GBP news which was positive had fail to sustain it's rise then I knew that the probability of a reversal had increased dramatically and it was just a matter of timing.

Now how far and for how long I will not know but I will ride it down until I see signs of a reversal.

[TraderDesk]

Sept.24 2013:

Today has a higher chance of being a pivot day for a change of bias. If you look at the 4 hour chart you can see price is touching the HA line. Today is also the 24th so if look back to last month there was a change in the 4 hour bias around the 26th August so if the same influences occur once again, then it could help price action to turn bearish.

24-Sep-13 7-39-54 AM.png

Drilling down I see the 30 minute chart is bearish in bias so I will play shorts until price breaks above the HA line.

24-Sep-13 7-49-07 AM 30 minute.png

Since I only care about price action as for me this represents all influences in the marketplace, I look at patterns and the last pattern as I shown in the first picture was on the 26th where bias changed. If I see a resumption of this pattern then it is a high possibility that price will fall until the end of this week. I would look for a 300 pip drop from this price to around 155.

So for now I will open positions to sell in the market...

[TraderDesk]

Just when I post I see price action breaks through the HA line on the 30 minute chart. I have sell positions open but now that PA is above HA line I will not open any more. Let's see if this is a way for sellers to get in at a better R/R or if PA actually went bullish. I need to see PA back down below 158.4 within the next three hours to stay bearish for the day.