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Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=792		 Page 3 of 36
Author:  msj_rs [ Sun Sep 02, 2012 11:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 1 minute 1 trade EA
cuzgeorge wrote:
msj_rs wrote:
cuzgeorge wrote:
- BE set to true, hate to lose a winner, and closing half trade because of the expected size involved. JS at 10 also.
Hi cuzgeorge.

Paulus original system dont use BE. You gain 15% or lose 5%. :shock:

I don't know how to do the backtest.. Isn't working... I'll try demo...

Cheers
msj_rs,
thanks for the heads-up, i'll keep an eye on it. I Dont know Paulus' work so i would change BE to false under normal circumstances as you come across like you've traded this system before, and have some experience with it.
Because this is a new EA and i have already posted my settings, i would prefer to report back with the results with settings i committed to already.
Others may have taken note of my settings and subsequently are setting up something different. Its pointless all of us trying to test exactly the same settings, but i hear you, and thank you for the observation.
i enjoy the challenge and would probably throw MPTM into the mix if i see i'm getting losers all the time. You'd be amazed how many trades mptm can take off one original trade, especially if you allow 'hedge the hedged' and keep short increments between hedges. dont know if thats a bad thing for this ea yet, but going to find out!! :)
check back in a few days , maybe a week or so and i'll post the results and my opinions. The widget posted earlier should update with the progress anyways. 8-)
thank you again,
cuzgeorge

Hi cuzgeorge

The MM in this system is very importam and for Paulus the BE afect the 1:3 ratio.
In his thread he explain his reasons...
I don't have much experience in 1m1t, but I followed Paulus thread since begining and saw his results!

I seemed cocky in the least post. I have a problem to express myself im English and understand some expressions... Like "Balls to the Wall"... Google translate it literally. I think in a lot of pain...

You are right, if everybody do the same thing we will have the same results...
Lets see in the next days and weeks.

Cheers
Author:  SteveHopwood [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 12:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 1 minute 1 trade EA
msj_rs wrote:I have a problem to express myself im English and understand some expressions... Like "Balls to the Wall"... Google translate it literally. I think in a lot of pain...
Yes, it does. This talks about the huge lot sizes needed to create a 5% risk with a stop loss of, say, 10 pips. Terrifying.

Version 1a is in post 1. I forgot to tell the EA not to trade if there is no LowLineName line on the chart, so the first version will trade as soon as macd and stoch are in place. Might not do too much damage, but that isn't the point.

:D
Author:  garyfritz [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA
If 5% is too scary, it's easy enough to dial the risk back.

Do we have any idea what the win% is for this strategy? With 1:3 risk:reward, if it wins anything over 30-40% it should be a nice healthy runner.
Author:  erickva [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 1:30 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA
garyfritz wrote:If 5% is too scary, it's easy enough to dial the risk back.

Do we have any idea what the win% is for this strategy? With 1:3 risk:reward, if it wins anything over 30-40% it should be a nice healthy runner.
Hi All,

Just jumping on the boat with you guys, hope I am not too heavy!

garyfritz, this is what I found over the FF thread:

My actual sequence results of the 25 days is as follows

WWWWWLLLWLLWWWLWWLWLWWWLL

Please do not get hung up on losing trades its why we use RR of 5% if you want risk 1% that side of things is up to you

I started with £2,000 after 25 days I now have £9,773

Cheers,
Erick
Author:  garyfritz [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 3:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA
erickva wrote:My actual sequence results of the 25 days is as follows
WWWWWLLLWLLWWWLWWLWLWWWLL
Wow. 25 trades, 15 wins, that's 60% wins.

1.15^15 * 0.95^10 = 4.87 -- which matches his £2000-to-£9773 result.

Assuming it maintains that 60% win rate, the average win is 15% and the average trade is (15 * 15% - 10 * 5%) / 25 = 7%. So the Kelly value is 7% / 15% = 47%. So risking 5% means you're risking just over 10% of the Kelly value (10% * 47% = 4.7%). That's a little aggressive but it's reasonable.

If you don't like the 5% risk, you could drop it to 2.5%. With 60% wins you'd still make about 130% after 25 trades. At that risk level there's only about a 13% chance of a 20% drawdown.

I need to look at this! Why do these things always run at London open, which is 1am for me!? But Paulus says it can work "any time of day," so I'll have to test that...
Author:  vivaldi [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 3:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA
Somewhere in the original thread, Paulus proposes to trade eurgbp during the european session and eurusd for the NY session. If this works out well, that would deliver 2 times as many trades in a day. If the winrate of 60 % can be maintained, that would mean a lot of progress. However, it is unclear, reading the thread, which results were obtained with this approach. But it could be an idea to incorporate in this EA. A ball to the wall for every session.
Author:  SteveHopwood [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:00 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 1 minute 1 trade EA
formatix wrote:
SteveHopwood wrote:
msj_rs wrote:I have a problem to express myself im English and understand some expressions... Like "Balls to the Wall"... Google translate it literally. I think in a lot of pain...
Yes, it does. This talks about the huge lot sizes needed to create a 5% risk with a stop loss of, say, 10 pips. Terrifying.

Version 1a is in post 1. I forgot to tell the EA not to trade if there is no LowLineName line on the chart, so the first version will trade as soon as macd and stoch are in place. Might not do too much damage, but that isn't the point.

:D
Thanks for the new toy, Steve. But it seems that version 1a doesn't care much about the yellow line as well. In spite of the current long bias on E/U it has just peacefully opened a sell trade as soon as the indicators aligned. So currently I have two sell trades running. One was opened by version 1 long before London open. :)
Yep. Merely sneers at the yellow line. I shall look into it this morning.

:D
Author:  erickva [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:07 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 1 minute 1 trade EA
It may be a very stupid question.
But if we draw a horizontal line at the low of the hour, isn't price going to be above the line 98% of the time? :roll:

I have long bias in my EURUSD chart and no trades at the moment.

Erick
Author:  cuzgeorge [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:13 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA
Hi all,
i'm feeling like i missed the train. Have'nt had any trades. :( no errors have come up so just waiting now.
Have added version 1 and V1a to my original myfxbook page link in previous post, albeit with diff magic numbers and different pairs, v1 and v1a versions are OOTB except for ECN=true. V1a on GBPUSD has stoch at 12,3,3. Hopefully the volaitilty of the GBP isnt a problem, but we will see.
Look for comments after following the widget link to see which ea will eventually take a trade.
EURUSD - original post and discussed settings
USDCHF - OOTB V1
GBPUSD - V1a stoch 12,3,3

Image
Author:  HiArt99 [ Mon Sep 03, 2012 8:34 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Balls to the Wall, a 1 minute 1 trade EA
No trades for me either. I don't think the EA is working correctly.

After dropping the required indie in I have applied the template and adjusted to the 1M chart. I then applied the EA, without changing any settings.

You can see from this screenshot: the EA is reporting red MACD when it is green, the stochastic values don't look correct and the Fractal Low is 0.

Image

I am using an Alpari UK Demo account.

Any advice would be appreciated.

Art
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