krisko1989 wrote:I had the same problem with AUDJPY today with a trade I entered yesterday (see pic). Sometimes I really wonder if markets are completely random and unpredictable. These times are in occasions like this one. Or maybe this is one of the cases in which fundamentals are all that matters.
However we should bare in mind that no system is 100% profitable and accurate. More than that, I think that if a system is as accurate (right) as much as 60% of the times then it should be considered a good system. Of course if proper risk and money management are applied to that system.
Maybe we would need as much as 100-200 or even 500+ trades to really tell if 10.2 is a good one. I do not know. Maybe Bob does. What I can see is that Bob obviously uses his knowledge and experience to apply Multy-level trading which significantly decreases the volume of losing trades. This is something which some of us (me in particular) obviously aren't too good at, but aren't obliged to be, since the system is said to not necessarily need Multy-level trading as an implemented tool of use (correct me if I'm wrong, Bob).
I really hope that 10.2 alone will turn out to be a profitable system. I kind of look at it as my last effort in my 6-year forex experience. Maybe I ain't cut out for this. So I will hold on to it like a drowning guy to a piece of wood.
Ićwrote program to trade, very simple actually, traded the 7 MA on the daily chart. Gave it a 50 pip profit and 15 SL. It won about 25% of the time and made a profit on low spread pairs but lost money on high spread pairs. As I played around with it I found out a simple formula. If I traded 2:1 win loss ratio it lost money. If I traded 3:1 or 4:1 it made money. 5:1 ratio and higher it lost money. What I learned was this. If you are going to play single stop trades your win to loss ratio becomes very important because it can determine whether your system wins or loses. The strong trends made up for all the losses during range time.
Second thing I found as I studied charts (It is very important that if you use the Empty4 tester you make conclusions from chart study not the final results page.) was many of the losing trades were winners at some point. Pulling your SL up would create about the same amount of losers but you eliminated most of the loss. The problem then would be you immediately reentered the trade and could create more losers thus defeating the pulling up of the SL.
Third many of the losing trades became winners if patience had been applied to the trade. OR many of the losers could be eliminated by a 2nd profitable trade crossing back into the trend.
So what am I doing with this program? Sitting on it because no matter how I change the basic simple trade program to something more that seems to solve the problem I see on the chart. The solution just creates more losing trades and it becomes unprofitable.
A very interesting dilemma. |
