SteveHopwood » Sun Dec 28, 2014 10:11 pm wrote:J4D » Sun Dec 28, 2014 7:06 pm wrote:
IMHO.. it might be worth putting the NZD in your basket of instruments, the NZCB policy is to raise rates in 2015, making this a very attractive currency..It already has an attractive positive swap against most currencies.. making it very attractive all round for Investors..
Not arguing against this, but please offer evidence of this when making such statements. I am not trying to be critical here (you would know if I were) but why should the rest of us believe you?
Also very well worth while when considering trading the AUD, NZD and CAD pairs is the spread, which can be huge, and the swap. Especially the swap. Get on the right side of that when holding trades open for more than a few days and you are in heaven. Get on the wrong side of it, and your profits will go glugging down the plughole rapidly.
Give a prayer that J4D is indeed correct folks, cos if he is just make a killing buying the NZD. J4D, I sincerely hope that we all owe you a huge crate of Champagne this time next year.
Hey Steve...My comments we're merely meant to sow the seeds of thought. It looks like they have  I wouldn't expect or want anyone on this forum to follow them unless they do their own due-diligence.. Last year the New Zealand central bank raised rates 4 times from 2.750% to 3.50%. It looks like the CB policy is still to raise rates though their policy has softened ...
http://www.wsj.com/articles/new-zealand ... 1410386894
The central bank continued to signal more interest-rate increases to come, but its forecasts—contained in the monetary policy statement—now indicate it expects to raise interest rates by around 50 basis points over the next 12 months or half a percentage point. This is down from 100 basis points, or 1 percentage point, in its prior forecasts in June.
"We expect some future policy tightening will be necessary to keep future average inflation near the 2% target midpoint and ensure that the economic expansion can be sustained," Mr. Wheeler said.
A more recent analysis by Roger Kerr
http://www.pwc.co.nz/corporate-treasury ... e-in-2015/
Though with the Dairy futures and other exports as well as internal data changing all the time it could all change dramatically so nothing should be taken as gospel, and my comments are as previously posted just in my humble opinion..This for me is just an underlying theme that if TA supported would just add weight to trading the NZD..
I completely agree with your positive swap comments..With Pipcruisers pipmasher EA being based very much on a trending model and with the inputs that PP suggests for his model it might be prudent to only take swap positive or very low swap trades... as you have already said trading with positive swap can be very powerful..
Anyway, if all this does play out ( and thats a big if ) there's no need for a huge crate of Champagne.. maybe if Im in your neck of the woods a pint of Guinness would be fine 
Cheers Ja |
