stevehopwoodforex.com
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/
Print view

Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=168		 Page 23 of 71
Author:  garyfritz [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 6:31 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
I'm getting less confident that this thing will trade forward as well as I'd like.

When I cherry-picked the pairs that have done well in the last year, the equity curve was gorgeous. But can I predict which ones would do well in the future? Not clear.

Here's the equity curve that results from taking every signal in all 28 pairs, trading 3 mini-lots each time:
FXozgirl.gif
It makes money, but it's a bumpy ride.

But no worries, I figured, I'll just select the best pairs and amp up the results that way. I've done that with several other systems, using the recent past behavior to determine which pairs to trade and how big. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to work very well with this system. I can reduce the drawdown some, like from 60% to about 40%. And you'd be taking a lot fewer trades so you wouldn't need as big an account. But 40% is still a pretty big drawdown and the returns are still not breathtaking.

Of course it wouldn't be 40% of your entire account, just the profits. If we say we want to risk 2% per trade, you'd need about $600 / 2% = $30k in your account. You would have taken a drawdown from $46k to about $37k, about a 20% DD, and you made $13k/$30k = 43% on your account. Not too bad.

If you could just trade the pairs that are working well, Gday could do really well. But I'm not sure I know how to do that.
Author:  Antra [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 7:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
I really like this system......gonna actually put on an EA and have a play!
See what happens when you hang around a forum of EA people?


Ummm.....just saw the post above.......

some nice nail biting periods happening there......gulp :-)
Author:  Antra [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
garyfritz wrote:I'm getting less confident that this thing will trade forward as well as I'd like.

When I cherry-picked the pairs that have done well in the last year, the equity curve was gorgeous. But can I predict which ones would do well in the future? Not clear.

Here's the equity curve that results from taking every signal in all 28 pairs, trading 3 mini-lots each time:
FXozgirl.gif
It makes money, but it's a bumpy ride.

But no worries, I figured, I'll just select the best pairs and amp up the results that way. I've done that with several other systems, using the recent past behavior to determine which pairs to trade and how big. Unfortunately that doesn't seem to work very well with this system. I can reduce the drawdown some, like from 60% to about 40%. And you'd be taking a lot fewer trades so you wouldn't need as big an account. But 40% is still a pretty big drawdown and the returns are still not breathtaking.

Of course it wouldn't be 40% of your entire account, just the profits. If we say we want to risk 2% per trade, you'd need about $600 / 2% = $30k in your account. You would have taken a drawdown from $46k to about $37k, about a 20% DD, and you made $13k/$30k = 43% on your account. Not too bad.

If you could just trade the pairs that are working well, Gday could do really well. But I'm not sure I know how to do that.
Interesting analysis and I guess you could spend hours working out what pairs to trade on your past results and then find they change in the future. What about just using the majors? 40% drawdown could be frightening even if it is from profits.
Author:  alex_forex [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 8:15 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
I sometimes forgot I run a demo and manage it as a live account :D

But I will load Gday on all available pairs for the next runs ;)

Have a nice day
Regards
Alex
SteveHopwood wrote:
alex_forex wrote:No more trade for me tonight with Alpari UK.

Trading pairs (with garyfritz advice ;) ) :
AUDUSD
CADCHF
EURAUD
EURJPY
GPBUSD
NZDJPY
USDCAD
USDJPY

Regards
Alex
I am waiting for the new Cowboy IBFX candle in a few minutes time. Live, I stopped trading on Monday, but cannot resist the lure of the demo.

Alex, you might consider demo trading everything in sight like the rest of us, just to see what works for you and what does not. Only a suggestion.

:D
Author:  fxozgirl [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 10:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
No new trades today for me either...the market has pretty much stopped now for Christmas.

I will leave my demo running, but would like to take this opportunity to wish everybody on Steve's forum and their families a very merry Christmas and a safe and happy new year.

Lets hope we all bag lots of pips in the new year no matter what ea/system we trade :D
Author:  kenfen [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 10:23 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
fxozgirl wrote:No new trades today for me either...the market has pretty much stopped now for Christmas.

I will leave my demo running, but would like to take this opportunity to wish everybody on Steve's forum and their families a very merry Christmas and a safe and happy new year.

Lets hope we all bag lots of pips in the new year no matter what ea/system we trade :D
Nice!

Same to you Shelley! Enjoy your break.

All the very best,

Ken
Author:  ROBST3R [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 11:18 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
fxozgirl wrote:No new trades today for me either...the market has pretty much stopped now for Christmas.

I will leave my demo running, but would like to take this opportunity to wish everybody on Steve's forum and their families a very merry Christmas and a safe and happy new year.

Lets hope we all bag lots of pips in the new year no matter what ea/system we trade :D
Merry Christmas and a happy new year to you and the rest of this forum!

Thank you very much for your system Shelley and thnx for the EA Steve
Author:  Wobstix [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
Hello all.
I only have a small live account and would like to run a demo account of approximately the same size.
Opening 3 trades with a SL of 200 pips is way too much risk for me.
If I were to open a single trade with say 1000 pip TP and set BE, JS & Trailing to false.
I then use MPTM to bring that single trade to BE and use JS. would that work?
I would be happy to set up a demo and post the results starting early next year.
Alternative single trade suggestions are welcome.

HAVE A VERY MERRY XMASS
AND LOTSA PIPS IN THE NEW YEAR !
Author:  garyfritz [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:24 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
Antra wrote:What about just using the majors?
Hm. Depends on your definition of the "majors," but it seems to work a bit better -- mostly because USDJPY had a great year. Here are the results of trading EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, and USDJPY.

Still had a 35% DD and it's been in the hole for 4 months (so far).
FXmajors.gif
Author:  arieldutchess [ Fri Dec 23, 2011 3:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Gday: a D1 Stochastic OB/OS trading robot
Hi Everyone,
I'm newbie and I wanted to say thanks for this site and all the work that has been done.

I need some help - I've read the pdf and I've read the post from #323 but Im still getting all zeros when i drag and drop the rsi onto the chart.

What am I doing wrong - I also copied the Recent Strength.csv into the OutputFile.
All times are UTC Page 23 of 71

Powered by phpBB® Forum Software © phpBB Limited