Jem's Uber Basket Trading Thread

[FxFoil]

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[will80]

My basket is sitting at 434pips since opening yesterday afternoon. I'm at work watching it on MT4i

I think I'll close it out for 500 - I guess that's a good haul for the week in pips!

[f451]

Here's some snippets from the first post:

Please not that the .8 is a recommendation for the best setups. if you see a pair fall between .4 to .8 it may still be tradable. Is up to you to work out if we are still trending or not by using your 10.2 brain

If a pair falls below the 'strongly trending' D1 TMA Slope then it's up to you if you'd like to remove it from your basket or not. Sometimes it is just retracing and setting up for a bigger move. I definitely would not recommend trading any pair that falls below .4 threshold as this means range or reversal time.

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The threshold you choose is totally subjective. Remember that greater than .4 is a trend and greater than .8 is a strong trend. Right now I've got AUDJPY sitting at .49 and I will still be trading it in my basket. As soon as I see it go below .4 I'm going to take it off my watch list.

I'm sure there will be times when all of our .8 pairs suddenly reverse and we will be stuck scratching our heads with a full stop out. This is okay as long as the baskets keep making us good pips from when the trend starts to finish. Nothing is going to be fail-safe.

Again!

.8 to add a pair to your strongly trending list
.6 means still got lots of steam left
.4 means this pair might be running out of steam, still tradable though.

Anything under .4, chuck it out!

For those that like to do a little experimenting of their own, I have a suggestion.

What we are trying to do here is develop a feel for (and maybe even a set of guidelines around) how changes in the TMA slope relate to retracements in a trend, so we can enter back in the direction of the trend when the retracement finishes, and even more importantly, so we know when changes in the TMA slope tell us the trend is over, and it no longer sensible to use this trading strategy on the pair (until a new trend forms).

There is a another tool that traders commonly use to determine when retracements have ended, (and when trends have ended too). Fibonacci levels.

I often throw a fibonacci retracement tool on my charts from the previous swing high/low to the current swing low/high to check if price has retraced to one of the key levels 23.8%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6%. These levels are commonly watched, and so act as strong support or resistance with clusters of orders placed there by technical traders.

You can also use the "depth" of the retracement (as measured by the fib level) as a indication of trend strength - trends that retrace only to the 23.8 or 38.2 level are considered strong (with weak retracements) and we should see higher |TMA| slope values if the retracement ends at these levels), retracements that stop at 50% or 61.8% levels are considered normal, and retracements that hit 78.6% (or higher) are considered very strong and indication that the trend is waning, or about to shift to a reversal or ranging behaviour. If we get a deep retracement to the 78.6 fib level, the TMA slope should be pretty close to |0.4|.

So here's the suggestion - if you're having trouble getting a feel for how deep or shallow a retracement should be before you enter a trade, throw a fib retracement tool on your daily chart to measure the fib depth of the current retracement in the trend and see how retracements to different levels line up with TMA slope values. It should quickly become apparent how the pair behaves, and where the market is in the trend.

[Jemook]

You can also use the "depth" of the retracement (as measured by the fib level) as a indication of trend strength - trends that retrace only to the 23.8 or 38.2 level are considered strong (with weak retracements) and we should see higher |TMA| slope values if the retracement ends at these levels), retracements that stop at 50% or 61.8% levels are considered normal, and retracements that hit 78.6% (or higher) are considered very strong and indication that the trend is waning, or about to shift to a reversal or ranging behaviour. If we get a deep retracement to the 78.6 fib level, the TMA slope should be pretty close to |0.4|.

Interesting analysis Simon thanks for sharing. Would you say a 23.8 / 38.2 retracement on the daily chart look like a 'strong retracement' on the H4 chart? I like to see retracements to the weekly pivots to get back in on a trend. But for me the optimum is (for a buy) on a H4 chart we get a couple of decent bars that have closed below the daily pivot and the 5.1 MA and then price starts moving back up to touch the 5.1 MA and cross above the daily pivot. This type of setup also sounds like a 23.8 retracement on a daily chart.

Personally I don't use fibs in my trading the pivots combined with TMA and CSS Slope are telling me enough of a story at the moment but feel free to post up charts based on your findings either way!

My basket is sitting at 434pips since opening yesterday afternoon. I'm at work watching it on MT4i. I think I'll close it out for 500 - I guess that's a good haul for the week in pips!

Nice one! Looks like a couple of us closed a bit early

[hammondnz]

My basket is sitting at 434pips since opening yesterday afternoon. I'm at work watching it on MT4i

I think I'll close it out for 500 - I guess that's a good haul for the week in pips!

Hey Will

That's an awesome haul for so early in the week! May I ask which pairs you had in your basket? I placed a 3 pair basket (AUDJPY, NZDJPY & AUDUSD) around 5.30pm last evening using the BobJemShelley EA and even now (2pm) it's only ranging between 30 - 40 pips. Did you use the ShelleyNOW EA as Jem had shown us in his post yesterday (Jems Uber Basket.........11.45am)?

Graham

[f451]

Interesting analysis Simon thanks for sharing. Would you say a 23.8 / 38.2 retracement on the daily chart look like a 'strong retracement' on the H4 chart? I like to see retracements to the weekly pivots to get back in on a trend. But for me the optimum is (for a buy) on a H4 chart we get a couple of decent bars that have closed below the daily pivot and the 5.1 MA and then price starts moving back up to touch the 5.1 MA and cross above the daily pivot. This type of setup also sounds like a 23.8 retracement on a daily chart.

Personally I don't use fibs in my trading the pivots combined with TMA and CSS Slope are telling me enough of a story at the moment but feel free to post up charts based on your findings either way!

They should look the same on a D1 or H4 chart - the swing points on D1 used for the fib should be the same swing points you would use on H4 if you did the fib on *that* chart. Strong trends should usually only retrace to 23.8 or 38.2 sometimes to 50%. These will look like big moves on H4, but will still turn around back into the daily trend at the same point. When the fib levels line up at daily/weekly pivots that's pretty strong support or resistance, so a high probability trade, especially if we are trading back into a trend.

I will eventually post up a few charts...

[Armen]

Spyderman, let him slip. He has done a great job.
Yet, we did not see that awesome dance of the year.

Oh, it's coming don't you worry.

Just kidding Jem. Don't take it serious.
BTW BJeS v1a was dumping my demo since Monday. By now the DD reached 6% of balance.
Removed the v1A and attached v1B. Additionally, running ForceLoadHistoricalData script.
Will report results by end of Friday.

[harry89]

Caught these guys on a retrace earlier today:
euraud
audchf
eurcad
audusd
usdcad
gbpnzd - closed with 5pip loss & 10 pip for the spread...big mistake, was a borderline candidate but should have held it anyway as it is now in profit.
Am not used to trading a higher time frame, need to try to stay in, especially if it remains below the daily pivot and is not closing above the 5ma.
Basket is up 90 pips not including the gbpnzd boo boo.
Harry

[spyderman]

Well my basket closed during the night for +38 pips or so. Not quite sure why. : :
Better'n -38

[spyderman]

Well my basket closed during the night for +38 pips or so. Not quite sure why. : :
Better'n -38

Hah, I see now. Had it set to BE +5. 7 pairs trading. Must have hit +200 then came down to hit the BE profit. Least I know that part of the EA works on my crim.