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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 4:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
zentauro67 wrote:
nanningbob wrote:
Yeah but that is not the issue. This is where traders who specialize in overbought and oversold get their butts handed to them. When you get into these DT that can last for months, yes you are going to be 3,4,5,600 or more pips away from the 240 line. This is where a news driven market differs from the normal market.
Maybe this was the weak point in Old 5.0 system. It was good in normal markets, but unexpected news could make a killing trade beyond any recovery system. Following old 5.0 you should be here (EURNZD) looking for a reversal, with 10.4 you are betting for a continuation.
If you remember I dropped 5.0 because of volatility. I always thought I could ride out any trend until I began to understand the long term potential of Govt. going out of business or going bankrupt. Greece and Cypress are the tip of the ice burg. What is underneath the water is really really ugly. It is why Euro is now going to demand assets to get further loans. Countries have gotten to far under to recover. USA is lucky right now because it will become the largest producer of oil in 5 years. That will help it to overcome its debt, IF THE NUT CASES IN CONGRESS AND THE WHITE HOUSE every get the budget at least close to balance. The USA has the assets to overcome their debt but it must get control of its budget. Some of these other countries dont have those kind of assets so what can they do? I concluded there would be moves at times that would go beyond what 5.0 could recover from. So starting with 1.0 and then 10.0 I changed my trading strategy. I am ready now, let the big moves come and if they suddenly change I will know.

Who is going to come in a buy the Euro and make it go up 100, 200, 500 pips anyway? Even if they do how long do you think it is going to last? What do you think is going to happen to the French banks when their loans start going under. The contagion is spreading. Somewhere, somehow, the govt. debt wagon will come to an end. Yes Cypress got new loans and Greece got new loans and Italy and Spain can still get new loans but what happens when they cant. Then France is next. Then what? At some point budgets have to be balanced and loans have to be paid off or paid down. When will that happen?? The "End game of the Debt Super Cycle" it has arrived. No we get to watch it play out. Greece got loans, kick the can, Spain got loans, kick the can, Italy got loans, kick the can, Cypress, WHeeeeeeeeew, they got loans but more difficult now, kick the can. Now what? Whose turn is next? Japan?? 230%+ debt to GDP ratio. The debt is owned by the people who are retiring now and need the money for their retirement. Where is that money coming from? They have to produce a surplus budget now to repay their people their loans. How many decades has it been since they even had a balanced budget. Yup, it could get really ugly out there.

Oh if the Brits want to chime in about their country, they can. They are the world's masters at avoiding the big crash.
Author:  TraderDesk [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Yesterday was a slow day. I was looking for more strength from GBP/USD but no luck so closed it... I did play EUR/JPY in scalping mode so made some pips there....

Today I am watching EUR/JPY for 10.4 moves.... It is currently at WS1 and if there is going to be any retracement I would look for PA to wander up to the weekly midsupport 1.... Eur is in sell mode across it's currency pairs and I love E/J volatility so I will look at taking profit at around 120. If it breaks that level then 118.75-119 level is next TP point...

ADR is around 200 and today's high is 121.87 for the moment... So TP at 120 is a better probability then 119 but anything can happen :)
Author:  GT3RS [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 6:44 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:
Oh if the Brits want to chime in about their country, they can. They are the world's masters at avoiding the big crash.
I'm ashamed to be British. This once great country is now a laughing stock to the rest of the world, with corrupt politicians who are only interested in their careers and how much money they can make once they retire from politics.

We rescued our banks 4 years ago with tax payer's money. We should have let them go to the wall. If my mate's garage business gets in to trouble because he's been giving credit out to all and sundry, who's going to help him out? Not the government, that's for sure.

Our government has convinced people that everything is OK and we are on the road to recovery. And what's more, everyone believes them.

There has been no hardship, no struggle, no "austerity" because the idiots of this country and the people in charge are STILL going out borrowing unsustainable amounts of money - living off debt.

When the sh1t finally hits the UK properly, it will be far worse than anything seen so far....................

Sorry for the rant!! :D :D
Author:  Staedtler [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:28 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
what is PA ?
Author:  philcs65 [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:33 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
PA = Price Action
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 7:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
TraderDesk wrote:Yesterday was a slow day. I was looking for more strength from GBP/USD but no luck so closed it... I did play EUR/JPY in scalping mode so made some pips there....

Today I am watching EUR/JPY for 10.4 moves.... It is currently at WS1 and if there is going to be any retracement I would look for PA to wander up to the weekly midsupport 1.... Eur is in sell mode across it's currency pairs and I love E/J volatility so I will look at taking profit at around 120. If it breaks that level then 118.75-119 level is next TP point...

ADR is around 200 and today's high is 121.87 for the moment... So TP at 120 is a better probability then 119 but anything can happen :)
Actually I dont want to teach this as policy but when you have a super news story and what I mean by that is a story that just isnt common or happens like once maybe twice a year one a weekly pivot the R1S1 actually become the pivots now. Monday was such a big day it distorted the charts and indis to where I am looking at R1S1 are my new pivot. If you look at it that way you then can see some good potential trades. There are times during the year this happens and I think this is one of those times. We dont have any good re-tracements to reenter from. That is because no one wants to but the Euro until this Cypress thing settles. That doesnt mean price will sink like crazy (it Could) but no one wants to be caught in a buy position until it settles. So no matter what the charts say, until some Euro happy news pops out, (like tomorrow there was no run on the banks today) then you might begin seeing some retraces. But I know I dont want to be caught in any euro currency buys.
Author:  Staedtler [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:14 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Thanks for all the wonderful support everyone, this is a very well put together system ! Excellent work nanningbob
Author:  huhpapa [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 8:36 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:
TraderDesk wrote:Yesterday was a slow day. I was looking for more strength from GBP/USD but no luck so closed it... I did play EUR/JPY in scalping mode so made some pips there....

Today I am watching EUR/JPY for 10.4 moves.... It is currently at WS1 and if there is going to be any retracement I would look for PA to wander up to the weekly midsupport 1.... Eur is in sell mode across it's currency pairs and I love E/J volatility so I will look at taking profit at around 120. If it breaks that level then 118.75-119 level is next TP point...

ADR is around 200 and today's high is 121.87 for the moment... So TP at 120 is a better probability then 119 but anything can happen :)
Actually I dont want to teach this as policy but when you have a super news story and what I mean by that is a story that just isnt common or happens like once maybe twice a year one a weekly pivot the R1S1 actually become the pivots now. Monday was such a big day it distorted the charts and indis to where I am looking at R1S1 are my new pivot. If you look at it that way you then can see some good potential trades. There are times during the year this happens and I think this is one of those times. We dont have any good re-tracements to reenter from. That is because no one wants to but the Euro until this Cypress thing settles. That doesnt mean price will sink like crazy (it Could) but no one wants to be caught in a buy position until it settles. So no matter what the charts say, until some Euro happy news pops out, (like tomorrow there was no run on the banks today) then you might begin seeing some retraces. But I know I dont want to be caught in any euro currency buys.
Thanks Bob ...
Author:  cjthomson [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:04 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
zentauro67 wrote:Hi, Wiggy

That´s just what i´m doing, staying out and looking for easier setups. But i wonder if these kind of trades close to de MA are or not missing chances.

Greetings!
My experience of taking trades when price has been close to the 240 so far seems to be a negative one. Too close to the MA almost suggests an amount of uncertainty - which way will it go. Seeing we're into capitalising on stacking probabilities I'm tending to stay out of trades where price is too close to 240. Just my thoughts, keen to hear anyone else's opinion.
Author:  cjthomson [ Wed Mar 27, 2013 9:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
cmeade2 wrote:Those were all great 10.4 trades. Congratulations.

The fact is that there are huge numbers of opportunities in 10.4. The question is who can harvest them.
Yep, thats what I've come round to thinking too. I had a cracking first couple of weeks - over 10%. Since then I've been taking hits and eroding that 10% slowly. On Mon this week people were talking of a over 500 pip day -I came out with a small loss! I seem to be taking poor positions and missing those that turn out to be classics. Not yet sure what I'm doing wrong poorly.
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