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10.4 A Complete System
https://www.stevehopwoodforex.com/phpBB3/viewtopic.php?t=1481		 Page 267 of 745
Author:  spillini [ Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Pulled E/J off at 119.30. We had a textbook Morning star form on the 4 hr. looking for a nice retrace here to get back in. I am thinking at least to weekly pivot which just happens to be the 50% fib level of the move down from 123.86 to 119.10, at the very outside of my options is 122.55 which just happens to be the 50% fib level of the whole move from 126.00 to 119.10. It is also where the 240 is hanging right now. I welcome your comments since we are looking at the same pair. Thanks


Jim


TraderDesk wrote:
nanningbob wrote:All Euro pairs are trying to make the WP line but will either bounce or not make it. I am all in on Euro sells. I wont touch eur/chf looks tasty but has only moved 114 pips in 2 weeks. Too much chance of SNB interference but it may move.
So far selling EUR seems to be the order of the day. EURUSD looks like a nice sell...

Bob, in your 10.4 framework do you sell positions when your sell conditions are met before PA has come down to the pivot levels underneath Price? Example is EURUSD I am showing. PA is right at pivot. STO is TOP and RSI is just starting to come of TOP. PA is below 240ma and CCY is showing EUR as the weakest currency. Do you sell now and add to that at the next below pivot line or wait for PA to hit the next below pivot to open your first position?

Thanks....
Author:  spillini [ Tue Apr 02, 2013 3:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
You have to have that ability to read between the lines, and you have that my friend. Since all indys lag at some point you are always going to get some missleading signals. The CSS is good enough to work most of the time and that is all you need, with a bit of instinct. And we all need to learn that little bit of instict that you know so well. Im getting close.
Thanks again,

Jim

nanningbob wrote:gbp/aud, gbp/cad, gbp/nzd and gbp/jpy look good for bounces off of the 240 line. I just dont believe the strength move of the GBP right now. These are all low risk sells and great retracements back into the DT. Ignoring CSS to my peril I guess. Here is gbp/cad example
Author:  TraderDesk [ Tue Apr 02, 2013 4:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
spillini wrote:Pulled E/J off at 119.30. We had a textbook Morning star form on the 4 hr. looking for a nice retrace here to get back in. I am thinking at least to weekly pivot which just happens to be the 50% fib level of the move down from 123.86 to 119.10, at the very outside of my options is 122.55 which just happens to be the 50% fib level of the whole move from 126.00 to 119.10. It is also where the 240 is hanging right now. I welcome your comments since we are looking at the same pair. Thanks

Hi, E/J is my favorite pair to trade. Right now I have been selling any pullback since she cross the 240ma... If by tomorrow PA gets anywhere near weekly support I will open up new bear positions. Unlike other currency pairs E/J was in a tight range once again ....When ranges get tight like this E/J likes to run in the 300+pips so I am looking for an initial test of 116.80 area by Friday latest...

As of right now I am looking to take first profit at around 118.80 area once I open a new sell position if PA gets up to 120.60 area...But I have to wait and see and then I can make a higher probability decision... :)
Author:  GSForex [ Tue Apr 02, 2013 9:29 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:I go to bed now. I am 84 pips from 1000 pip week.

Bob,

Newbie here, would you mind sharing a bit of the details of these 920-pip trades? I would like to know how you executed these trades.

Thanks much.
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
GSForex wrote:
nanningbob wrote:I go to bed now. I am 84 pips from 1000 pip week.

Bob,

Newbie here, would you mind sharing a bit of the details of these 920-pip trades? I would like to know how you executed these trades.

Thanks much.
Here they are. You can also see my deleted pending trades. The PDF is 4 pages long so you have to match pages 3 and 4 with pages 1 and 2. I was 46 and 7 with 2 SL hits. The other 5 were manual closes for a total of 918.3 pips My average profit was 24 pips and average loss was 28 pips a solid ratio.
Author:  GSForex [ Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:14 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
nanningbob wrote:
GSForex wrote:
nanningbob wrote:I go to bed now. I am 84 pips from 1000 pip week.

Bob,

Newbie here, would you mind sharing a bit of the details of these 920-pip trades? I would like to know how you executed these trades.

Thanks much.
Here they are. You can also see my deleted pending trades. The PDF is 4 pages long so you have to match pages 3 and 4 with pages 1 and 2. I was 46 and 7 with 2 SL hits. The other 5 were manual closes for a total of 918.3 pips My average profit was 24 pips and average loss was 28 pips a solid ratio.

Thanks so much Bob !
Author:  nanningbob [ Tue Apr 02, 2013 10:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I have closed all my pending trades except for the Euro. Yesterday was a big day for the GBP and accounted for 60% of my pips. Looks quiet on the news front. GBP probably will rebound some today especially if the one news story is good news. I wont be trading the rebounds. Will play the euro weakness still, they really didnt move much yesterday so maybe more movement today. Next big story coming up is Wed night (usa time) the jpy open. That is the target date for the govt. easing program we have been talking about the last 4 months. JPY has strengthened much stronger than expected but if you look at the monthly charts it retraced to a previous S line. The 3 pairs the JPY want to depreciate against are the EURO (good luck with that) GBP and USD. If for some reason the program is not aggressive enough then it is possible the JPY could strengthen. Good luck I suspect today will be quiet but with the EURO you never know.
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Apr 03, 2013 2:37 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
I am expecting a rebound today on the GBP pairs. The one trade that looks good for a rebound trade is the gbp/chf. Price is above 240 chf is weak and RSI 2 is well set up. I placed my trades at WM, WP and DP. Take profit based on how much it moves during the euro session. If the move is muted then I will look to see to see if any of the other GBP sells from yesterday are bouncing off of daily pivot or have gone above daily pivot on the 1H chart. I will then look to sell on the break of DP because the DT will continue. Anyway here is the gbp/chf pic.

I decided to take my buy here at WS1. A Captain Jack trade I think. Low risk dont need a big SL here.
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Apr 03, 2013 2:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
The other good GBP trade is the eur/gbp. If weakness in Euro comes back and gbp rebounds that is an excellent sell scenario. 10.4 setup with previous S/R that held the last 2 weeks. Nice bounce trade back into the trend. AO shows a strong move if it goes down.
Author:  nanningbob [ Wed Apr 03, 2013 3:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
A lesson on reading the market. One of the things I have learned by looking at all the charts is how interrelated they are. gbp/nzd, gbp/aud, gbp/cad, gbp/jpy, were all good trades yesterday. Will they continue and keep dropping? How would you know? Look at the pairs that are now at a solid S/R which is gbp/chf, eur/gbp, and to a lesser extent gbp/usd. If those three break weaker then the above 4 will continue to run and you will want to get back in. If gbp/chf and eur/gbp bounce like I am expecting then the first 4 run for now is over and we wait for the retrace to get back in. Here is the gbp/usd. I will play for it to bounce back across the 240 line back into the UT. Not because I believe it will UT but because I believe it will rebound before going back into the general gbp DT. If gbp follows euro weakness, which is very common, then gbp/usd will range or head into a DT as the gbp gets weaker and the USD gets stronger. So seeing all 7 gbp pairs tells me a story and lets me know what is going on. gbp/chf, eur/gbp, gbp/usd also break into weakness then I know the others are going outside S1 to S2 or lower this week. If they bounce then I will look for a retrace to reenter into the DT later this week or next.
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