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The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
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Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 1:12 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
banteka wrote:Hello friends.
I'm wondering whether GOLD behaves as Forex pairs. Should we wait for a second and third phases of cycle?. Or is gold a different subject?...
Hi Banteka

Good question. But I have to admit to having a smile too, because if you think the GBPJPY is a wild, untamed, bucking bronco (horse) ... try trading Gold! It can do your head in with its moves at times!

In my experience, Gold [while still responding to market sentiment, as well as other correlations it may have (EG AUDUSD) and risk-on/risk-off issues] is also highly susceptible to market manipulation via the derivatives markets.

This is not the place to post some of the writings of Ben Hunt, but believe me, you would have Gold at the bottom of your list of instruments to trade if you understood some of these things.

http://tinyurl.com/ksemwdf ..... This stuff should be read - all of it - by any Gold trader. Grab yourself a nice hot coffee, or a glass of your favourite beverage, and settle in for a fascinating read.

I apologise for taking this off topic ... the subject deserves its own thread.

By all means trade the setups you find ... but be very aware that Gold is regarded as a specialised animal to handle, and have all your "safety equipment" operational and in good working order too. Be aware also that there are some very large, very vicious foxes, whose sole purpose in life is to manage the movement of Gold, and it will not be in favour of the trader, rest assured.

To try to answer your question, I have not attempted to apply Naked Trading to Gold, but I see no reason why you couldn't, provided your stops and your risk analysis are in order.
Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 1:20 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
ciliano wrote:If you zoom out to the H1 it looks like at the start of a third push up as well.
Ciliano - could you please explain a little more what you are seeing.

I don't understand "the start of a third push up" in your post.

I can't see the same thing (on the AUDUSD).

Thanks mate

Ivan
Author:  kwanann [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 1:48 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Ingot54 wrote: To try to answer your question, I have not attempted to apply Naked Trading to Gold, but I see no reason why you couldn't, provided your stops and your risk analysis are in order.
I did it previously. saw the M just before the crazy gold drop. milked it left right and center. thereafter skipped gold cos it was too scary, 100pip moves is nothing for gold.

Just be careful when u play with gold, make sure u have sufficient buffer

K
Author:  joswald [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 1:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
bluedog23 wrote:
Ingot54 wrote:
ciliano wrote:If you zoom out to the H1 it looks like at the start of a third push up as well.
Ciliano - could you please explain a little more what you are seeing.

I don't understand "the start of a third push up" in your post.

I can't see the same thing (on the AUDUSD).

Thanks mate

Ivan
I don't see this either.
Hi Guys,

I think this is what Ciliano means. Also price poked it's head out below the obvious support.

Regards,

Jack
push.png
Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 2:38 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
joswald wrote:
bluedog23 wrote:
Ingot54 wrote:
ciliano wrote:If you zoom out to the H1 it looks like at the start of a third push up as well.
Ciliano - could you please explain a little more what you are seeing.

I don't understand "the start of a third push up" in your post.

I can't see the same thing (on the AUDUSD).

Thanks mate

Ivan
I don't see this either.
Hi Guys,

I think this is what Ciliano means. Also price poked it's head out below the obvious support.

Regards,

Jack
push.png
Sorry - no. I do not see these moves by AUDUSD as a push high count.

For a start, you are looking at a 1H TF spread over 10 days +/-
If you want to start counting over this length of time, then you are probably better looking at the DAILY TF and looking for pushes there. Your 1H TF pushes will normally play out in a day or two ... not usually 10 days.

Secondly, the highs you seem to be counting as the top of the pushes, are negated, because price has dropped back to previous levels around .9140 twice since the beginning of your Level 1 Push. When that happens, your counts need to begin again.
Push High Count.JPG
What I am seeing, is a very big "M" which looks great on the 4H.

After a push up/down, there is usually a period of consolidation before the next push IN THE SAME DIRECTION, otherwise it is no longer a part of the count.

Now I am no expert here, and I hope to be corrected because I too am learning. But I hope this can be clarified, because I simply see no 2 pushes higher.

btw - price MAY go higher from here ... it is at a very significant level of previous support ... but I have no way of knowing anything with the market - I just trade the setups with tight SL, and lose only a little if I am wrong, and make a bit if I am right.

That's trading.
Author:  bluedog23 [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 2:59 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Ingot54 wrote:
joswald wrote:
bluedog23 wrote:
Ingot54 wrote:
ciliano wrote:If you zoom out to the H1 it looks like at the start of a third push up as well.
Ciliano - could you please explain a little more what you are seeing.

I don't understand "the start of a third push up" in your post.

I can't see the same thing (on the AUDUSD).

Thanks mate

Ivan
I don't see this either.
Hi Guys,

I think this is what Ciliano means. Also price poked it's head out below the obvious support.

Regards,

Jack
push.png
Sorry - no. I do not see these moves by AUDUSD as a push high count.

For a start, you are looking at a 1H TF spread over 10 days +/-
If you want to start counting over this length of time, then you are probably better looking at the DAILY TF and looking for pushes there. Your 1H TF pushes will normally play out in a day or two ... not usually 10 days.

Secondly, the highs you seem to be counting as the top of the pushes, are negated, because price has dropped back to previous levels around .9140 twice since the beginning of your Level 1 Push. When that happens, your counts need to begin again.
Push High Count.JPG
What I am seeing, is a very big "M" which looks great on the 4H.

After a push up/down, there is usually a period of consolidation before the next push IN THE SAME DIRECTION, otherwise it is no longer a part of the count.

Now I am no expert here, and I hope to be corrected because I too am learning. But I hope this can be clarified, because I simply see no 2 pushes higher.

btw - price MAY go higher from here ... it is at a very significant level of previous support ... but I have no way of knowing anything with the market - I just trade the setups with tight SL, and lose only a little if I am wrong, and make a bit if I am right.

That's trading.
aud usd h1.png
Here's what I see on the H1. Just a possibility of what might happen. I think a buy is OK but I agree with Ingot that your count is not valid. Looking at the H4 chart there is more downside to come. Keep posting; that's how we all learn.

Ray
Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
bluedog23 wrote:Here's what I see on the H1. Just a possibility of what might happen. I think a buy is OK but I agree with Ingot that your count is not valid. Looking at the H4 chart there is more downside to come. Keep posting; that's how we all learn.

Ray
I agree Ray - I think what you are seeing has a high probability of being a good trade setup.
It is the "M" or the third leg of the "W" setting up? I am in the "W" group here.
AUDUSD 4H.JPG
It is a matter of judgement sometimes, and because of the strength of the support at the bottom here, plus the pinning on 4H and 1H, we could take a trade to the long side, and perhaps scale in a bit more if it works. Once confidence builds, you would simply take the trade and manage it.
AUDUSD 1H.JPG
Let's follow this and learn from it - it is a great point of interest right now.
Note that on the 1H chart above, the price did not invalidate the count, because it did not rise to the previous level before dropping to level 3.

Hopefully Xrismak or Kwanann or CJ can clarify this in due course ... but I think it will clarify itself. Taking these trades helps consolidate learning.

Ivan
Author:  Ingot54 [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
I won't put up the chart, but the 15M is showing a bit of consolidation (sideways) but at the same time is forming a subtle "W" showing higher lows.

This looks like the fox is accumulating during the Asian session, and once he has his bounty loaded on the truck, he could head north.

Be prepared for the sharp stop-out to the bottom, to shake out the bulls at their stops, and grab a few more bears.

If we are of 2 minds about this, how are the guys at FF dealing with it ... and thousands of other Retail Traders?
There will be both bulls and bears playing this.

In the next couple of hours we might get a spike down to the low of the day ... or we may already have it. Whichever way it goes, remember the Asian session sets the Daily range ... and if that is the case, we may begin to see the development of trapping volume. Bears will be stuck and then stopped out ... and bulls will be stopped out and miss the train, as price is pushed north rapidly before they can recover.

Just thoughts of a learner.
Author:  kwanann [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:47 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
Ivan,

i dunno... 1H doesnt show a W, might be going to make the W.. H4 pins don't look convincing, no trapping volume..

my guess.. its still going down..

Either way, keep ur SL tight so you wont be affected much if it goes away from you

K
Author:  xrismak [ Thu Jul 25, 2013 3:51 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff
bluedog23 wrote:
Ingot54 wrote:
joswald wrote:
bluedog23 wrote:
Ingot54 wrote:
ciliano wrote:If you zoom out to the H1 it looks like at the start of a third push up as well.
Ciliano - could you please explain a little more what you are seeing.

I don't understand "the start of a third push up" in your post.

I can't see the same thing (on the AUDUSD).

Thanks mate

Ivan
I don't see this either.
Hi Guys,

I think this is what Ciliano means. Also price poked it's head out below the obvious support.

Regards,

Jack
push.png
Sorry - no. I do not see these moves by AUDUSD as a push high count.

For a start, you are looking at a 1H TF spread over 10 days +/-
If you want to start counting over this length of time, then you are probably better looking at the DAILY TF and looking for pushes there. Your 1H TF pushes will normally play out in a day or two ... not usually 10 days.

Secondly, the highs you seem to be counting as the top of the pushes, are negated, because price has dropped back to previous levels around .9140 twice since the beginning of your Level 1 Push. When that happens, your counts need to begin again.
Push High Count.JPG
What I am seeing, is a very big "M" which looks great on the 4H.

After a push up/down, there is usually a period of consolidation before the next push IN THE SAME DIRECTION, otherwise it is no longer a part of the count.

Now I am no expert here, and I hope to be corrected because I too am learning. But I hope this can be clarified, because I simply see no 2 pushes higher.

btw - price MAY go higher from here ... it is at a very significant level of previous support ... but I have no way of knowing anything with the market - I just trade the setups with tight SL, and lose only a little if I am wrong, and make a bit if I am right.

That's trading.
aud usd h1.png
Here's what I see on the H1. Just a possibility of what might happen. I think a buy is OK but I agree with Ingot that your count is not valid. Looking at the H4 chart there is more downside to come. Keep posting; that's how we all learn.

Ray
Peeps,

I kind of Sort of Beg to Differ with the Analysis on that Chart, I don't trade that Currency Pair otherwis I would have a better understanding of it's Habits, but have a look at my Chart for a Clearer Analysis. I Might be Wrong but this is Just how I feel.....

Happy Trading Y'all,
xrismak. ;)
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