The Captains Chest - Naked Trading & Other Stuff

[hilavoku]

Hiho,

just what i see:

When looking back on D1 we see a price range from 1.53 and 1.54 which created an area of interest!?

GBPUSD.PNG

At the moment we are just within this range. Also when looking at the levels. I don't know if we are at level 2 or already at level 3.

GBPUSD_II.PNG

I would more likely see level 2 and expecting an upper move to come. Sure pins and volume should support this.

[lilac]

Yeah, GBPJPY can be a killer if wrong, I am only observing it from now on, luckily it was only a small order that got trapped, but I refuse to give them my money so easily, if I know it will probably turn better in a few days.

Understand that I am not picking on you Lilac, but this statement sums up why the Fox is so successful at what he does and why he repeats the same patterns over and over. These are some of the basic human tendencies and habits that he makes his living from. This is why "trapping volume" works...people buy the Fox's story and place an order in the wrong direction. When price moves against them, they continue to hold the order instead of taking a small loss, because as you have said, price will turn soon. The losses increase, margin and equity fall, and capital that can be used on a "good trade" is locked in a bad position. On top of that, a lot of people will stack orders, in the wrong direction and end with a much larger loss than they would have had they closed it out early.

When I'm wrong, I take my loss as has been evident on several AUDNZD trade series I have posted recently. Those losses were taken and made up for with positive trades later., instead of allowed to roll into larger losing positions.

Take small losses and stack your winning trades. Do not do the reverse of this.

CJ

Yes, You are completely right. Unfortunately I took that GBPJPY sell last week, before I found this thread, If I had seen that W forming on D1 and H4, I would have been a diferent story.

I know I should not hold my losers, this one slipped without a SL and I went to sleep, I saw the big mistake the following day, and thought I should better wait for a retrace to close it. Of course, if I had closed erlier before the last push my loss would have been smaller.

I have been bitten by fox before, and once the mistake got so far, I learned sometimes it is more painful to close it right away than to hold it for a better later moment to close, like right now. I may close it today when I see it stops falling, so that I can minimize the loss.

Holding a loser is a complete waste of time and resources, and it draws my attention away from other good trade oportunities. I hope this trade is my last rotten apple in the basket, I put SL to all my trades since then.

Thanks for all the good advices.

[pips400]

Thought I'd put my 2 pennies in on the AUDUSD debate

It seems that even in counting levels and pushes there can be some differences of opinion, but I think that is okay, but trading price is more or an art than an exact science, and like CJ says he doesn't have any rules However we do have guidelines It's easy to get confusion when mixing different time frames and levels, predominantly I'm looking at the H4, H1 and M15. IMHO the AUDUSD has given us three levels down yes, but this was all within a day, so we have first level down on the weekly cycle (3 to 4 days of action), I use H1 for this. It was way over the ADR so I might expect some more accummulation/manipulation then a fake push up before heading down for Level 2. The complication here is that we are at strong support, and on the H4 previous level up however the previous low from last week has been reached resetting the count. CSS bias on the 4H is short but weakening. So overall a difficult one to predict.

[Rich_Tea]

Best be careful on the EURUSD pair...the pattern remains the same but with some additional distortion tossed in for confusion...

CJ

1.32 has drawn us all in for the fox feast on. It's the first time I've had the chance to view it real time - amazing and also depressing that I would have previously sold 1.32 based on a single pin bar!!

Well played Banteka yesterday - looks like we get the same today - looking for a W at the lows slightly under yesterday's LOD.

He's the carnage around 1.32 followed by the pattern from post 2 by CJ - "the pattern repeats"!!!!

[Ozstyle]

Thought I'd put my 2 pennies in on the AUDUSD debate

It seems that even in counting levels and pushes there can be some differences of opinion, but I think that is okay, but trading price is more or an art than an exact science, and like CJ says he doesn't have any rules However we do have guidelines It's easy to get confusion when mixing different time frames and levels, predominantly I'm looking at the H4, H1 and M15. IMHO the AUDUSD has given us three levels down yes, but this was all within a day, so we have first level down on the weekly cycle (3 to 4 days of action), I use H1 for this. It was way over the ADR so I might expect some more accummulation/manipulation then a fake push up before heading down for Level 2. The complication here is that we are at strong support, and on the H4 previous level up however the previous low from last week has been reached resetting the count. CSS bias on the 4H is short but weakening. So overall a difficult one to predict.

This was pretty much what I was thinking also. I wouldn't be surprised to see price move higher before we see some manipulation considering yesterday's ADR was blown out.

It's my understanding that we can see the 3 push's on each timeframe. When looking at the 15 minute this will occur in one day. We will potentially see price move out of the Asian range, manipulation resulting in the "M" pattern we see followed by 3 levels of drop ending in a "W" trapping shorts at the low of the day. If we are looking at the hourly chart we are looking for a larger "M", possibly over a number of days, trapping traders long before three levels of fall over 2 or three days or so. This then ends in a larger "W" trapping traders short before moving up and so on. It also occurs on the 4hr, daily etc just taking longer to play out. Unfortunately it isn't always clear which is the hard part! I hope this makes sense.

[MajorD]

3downW-Buy.jpg

How does this look? have I got it right?


Guess I`ll find out soon enough

But it looks like 3 pushes down with a `W` at the base... signals a buy right?

[Rich_Tea]

Best be careful on the EURUSD pair...the pattern remains the same but with some additional distortion tossed in for confusion...

CJ

1.32 has drawn us all in for the fox feast on. It's the first time I've had the chance to view it real time - amazing and also depressing that I would have previously sold 1.32 based on a single pin bar!!

Well played Banteka yesterday - looks like we get the same today - looking for a W at the lows slightly under yesterday's LOD.

He's the carnage around 1.32 followed by the pattern from post 2 by CJ - "the pattern repeats"!!!!

The feast continues....what's really striking is the ferocity and ease with which the hens (me and joe public) in the hen house get taken - a real eye opener

[jtpada]

3downW-Buy.jpg

How does this look? have I got it right?


Guess I`ll find out soon enough

But it looks like 3 pushes down with a `W` at the base... signals a buy right?

Hopefully this becomes a pin bar now..... and shoots right back up.

[zentauro67]

Best be careful on the EURUSD pair...the pattern remains the same but with some additional distortion tossed in for confusion...

CJ

He's the carnage around 1.32 followed by the pattern from post 2 by CJ - "the pattern repeats"!!!!

The feast continues....what's really striking is the ferocity and ease with which the hens (me and joe public) in the hen house get taken - a real eye opener

Well, this is hell for traders, but a paradise for martingale EAs.

The fox carnage pattern is awsome. I suspect CJ chose it as first example for this thread for a reason. Ah, the cunning creature...

[McNish]

Observations & Suggestions & Q's

Starting off, i agree AU is a buy bias for me for the third push up but on H4. I traded 2 lvls short for it yesterday on M15 and made good. today i have a different bias. Here are pics for my pov. Ride on Jem, just behind you.

Xrismak stated earlier that he's able to play the swing either way. I agree that it is very much possible to do that. But needs immense practice.

Also noted that there is selective screening. Kwan is concentrating of EU, GU & UF i guess; Xrismak has his own set; Jem is on AU; myself ... still wandering. That is a good go, we have specialists for each pair, Nice.

Q : So generally, a move is dictated by the levels, ... 3 main levels. After the 3rd, it may or may not go further?

Please correct me on the H4 pic. Getting better gradually. Thanks to all.

Regards, Max.