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10.4 A Complete System
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Author:  fx800 [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:35 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
patman wrote:Hi Bob,

Great system and an awesome result this week for you.
Thanks for sharing your system & knowledge.

I have a question
The JPY headed south around 5am this morning - sending all XXXJPY pairs north.
Prior to this all these pairs were below the 240MA so pending sells would have been in place
The move happened while I was away so I missed it.
You must have been at your screen at the right time.

My question is did you wait till each pair crossed above the MA to place your pendings or did you jump in as soon as the move started. (based on your experience/knowledge)
(I'm still showing EURJPY below 240MA)

I think this is a case where you needed to be quick even though 10.4 id a 4H system.

Pat

Please read Bob's post at 10.43pm London time yesterday. The answer is there.
Author:  patman [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 10:55 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
fx8000

Thanks
all clear, now
Author:  cmeade2 [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 11:53 am ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
Hey Bob

Congratulations! Is the party over for today?

cmeade2
Author:  fx800 [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
patman wrote:fx8000

Thanks
all clear, now
It requires a leap of faith to do what Bob did last night.

The conventional wisdom is to buy the rumour and sell the news (in this instance sell yen on the rumour and buy yen this morning, as the news of QE was flagged some weeks ago).

However, who is to question Bob's judgement, based on years of experience and his honesty of sharing his results openly whether good or bad.

Thanks to Bob for his invaluable contribution on forex trading in Steve's forum.

Cheers,
peter
Author:  tommiho [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
The general question here, if someone has a multiple positions open where would someone claim the profit? Where to close them? I am absolutely tempted to leave them be and let them running. But as you all know the turn around PA can surprise you anytime. I know CJ mentioned to keep his anchor trade and close compounded trades. What do you all think? Bob was saying to enter on D1 max min, maybe to close as well? On the other hand nobody knows when this run is going to end.(well when the Japanese reach inflation is 2% of course but I wouldn`t be able to wait that long hehe)
Author:  TraderDesk [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
tommiho wrote:The general question here, if someone has a multiple positions open where would someone claim the profit? Where to close them? I am absolutely tempted to leave them be and let them running. But as you all know the turn around PA can surprise you anytime. I know CJ mentioned to keep his anchor trade and close compounded trades. What do you all think? Bob was saying to enter on D1 max min, maybe to close as well? On the other hand nobody knows when this run is going to end.(well when the Japanese reach inflation is 2% of course but I wouldn`t be able to wait that long hehe)
Hmmm... I think your answer will be very subjective to the person answering them. Each trader has their own style...

For me I will close most of the positions that I open during the trend of the day when I see we are close to the ADR of that currency pair... Days like this I will let some of them ride and add more from any pullback that we get... I will also look at the longer-term charts to see if I will leave a few lots open or a major trend. An example is GBP/JPY where it has crossed over to a bullish bias on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. Plus we are at a multi-year low. So I am looking for PA on this pair to head up over the next few years so I will leave the odd position or two open and if it heads up add more...

Another method I use is on the 5 minute Heiken Ashi chart if PA goes below the smooth average then I close some of my positions as well...

Different methods work on different currency pairs for me...

BE is a last resort for me and I use that method after I have taken a percentage of profit in the move... :)
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:21 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
tommiho wrote:The general question here, if someone has a multiple positions open where would someone claim the profit? Where to close them? I am absolutely tempted to leave them be and let them running. But as you all know the turn around PA can surprise you anytime. I know CJ mentioned to keep his anchor trade and close compounded trades. What do you all think? Bob was saying to enter on D1 max min, maybe to close as well? On the other hand nobody knows when this run is going to end.(well when the Japanese reach inflation is 2% of course but I wouldn`t be able to wait that long hehe)
I closed all but one or two positions on each pair and reset new pending orders.

There are three kinds of non indi trades,

News trades - take a position in and out of the market in less than two hours. Quick pop news story wont run price for long.

fundamental news trades - Will make a currency run for several days to even a week or two. Interest rate changes do this

Macro fundamental trades- This affects price action for months or years to come. This JPY is a Macro Fundamental trade. They are shooting for minimum 2% inflation rate per year and to get out of 20 + years of a deflationary cycle. There is no mystery here Japan is going in a certain direction and everyone, Parliament, Leaders, BOJ, etc. are all on the same page for now. We have known for months they were going to try. Policy is now going to be implemented. So sell the JPY and then when this run is over look to reenter. Big time trades started placing their first trades today. They will buy and hold, buy and hold, buy and hold. This is how the big boys trade. They are looking at monthly S/R levels so get on board and go. Now as a small time trader what do we do.

I want to run at least one trade north of the 240 line and see what happens. The rest TP and reenter, TP and reenter. That is my plan.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
fx8000 wrote:
patman wrote:fx8000

Thanks
all clear, now
It requires a leap of faith to do what Bob did last night.

The conventional wisdom is to buy the rumour and sell the news (in this instance sell yen on the rumour and buy yen this morning, as the news of QE was flagged some weeks ago).

However, who is to question Bob's judgement, based on years of experience and his honesty of sharing his results openly whether good or bad.

Thanks to Bob for his invaluable contribution on forex trading in Steve's forum.

Cheers,
peter
This is not a leap of faith. If you been following my threads I have been talking about this for several months now. Everyone knew this was going to happen if the govt. got everyone on the same page. The last person was the new head of the BOJ installed last month. Now they are implementing their plan. I have seen these things over the years but never knew what made them happen. Now I know to watch for Macro Economic news happenings and then get in when they happen. The key is knowing what is a Macro Economic happening and just regular news or fluff. That is the one area of Forex that is starting to make sense to me, Finally. At least part of it.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
cmeade2 wrote:Hey Bob

Congratulations! Is the party over for today?

cmeade2
Lets see how the Americans view this today. I am going for a bike ride, be back in 2 or 3 hours.
Author:  nanningbob [ Thu Apr 04, 2013 12:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: 10.4 A Complete System
patman wrote:Hi Bob,

Great system and an awesome result this week for you.
Thanks for sharing your system & knowledge.

I have a question
The JPY headed south around 5am this morning - sending all XXXJPY pairs north.
Prior to this all these pairs were below the 240MA so pending sells would have been in place
The move happened while I was away so I missed it.
You must have been at your screen at the right time.

My question is did you wait till each pair crossed above the MA to place your pendings or did you jump in as soon as the move started. (based on your experience/knowledge)
(I'm still showing EURJPY below 240MA)

I think this is a case where you needed to be quick even though 10.4 id a 4H system.

Pat
I knew the news story was coming, I knew it would be big, not this big though, and I knew indicators, candle patterns, fox stories, etc. etc, meant nothing. You throw all those out when a story like this appears. I will pick up indicator trading again next week. This week I am not even looking at other pairs even though I am sure there are trades out there. JPY has my complete attention and my TP are now based on daily or weekly charts. 4H chart is too small to handle a move like this.

Last year the SNB, (CHF) intervened in the markets. I knew it was going to happen it had been anticipated. When it happened I had one entry on differetn pairs and the gbp/chf ended up being my biggest trade at 850 pips. I was so excited I banked it. DUMB DUMB, it ran another 500 pips before it stopped over the next several days. I will have one or two trades going, maybe more, at least until Friday Euro close time when many traders will take their profit for the week during that last hour. Then I might play the retrace, but not until then.
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